Western officials struggle to respond to a new wave of “hybrid warfare.”
Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep. Jack is taking a well-deserved vacation this week, so our colleague Amy Mackinnon is filling in.
By the way, there’s a major NATO summit coming up in Washington next month with dozens of world leaders flying in to attend. Robbie and Jack will be on the ground reporting on all the major developments and scoops throughout the summit with special daily editions of Situation Report. Stay tuned to your inboxes, and spread the word if you know anyone interested in signing up for SitRep and following along.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: Russia ramps up sabotage attacks on NATO soil, a U.N. commission accuses both Israel and Hamas of war crimes, and Belarus and Russia conduct joint nuclear drills.
Russia’s Sabotage Campaign in Europe
The normally covert world of espionage has exploded across the headlines in Europe in recent months as Russian operatives reportedly step up sabotage operations and so-called gray zone, or “hybrid,” attacks in the West.
The campaign that officials link to Russia or Russian-backed operatives has included an arson attack on a Ukrainian-linked business in London, a wave of cyberattacks to disrupt European railway networks in countries on NATO’s eastern flank, the jamming of GPS signals across the Baltic states, a botched attempt to set Czech buses on fire, and failed plots to sabotage U.S. military bases in Germany. Other incidents—such as a fire in May at a factory in Germany owned by a company that helps produce air defense systems and a mysterious explosion at a British munitions factory in April—haven’t been proved to be acts of sabotage and may have been simple accidents, but officials remain suspicious.
“Virtually every ally was seized with this intensification of Russia’s hybrid attacks,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Prague last month. “We know what they’re up to, and we will respond both individually and collectively as necessary.”
All flash, no bang? From a 30,000-foot view, these attacks are sporadic and extremely limited in their effectiveness. They haven’t made a dent in Western countries’ or their defense industries’ abilities to supply Ukraine, officials said. (Those supply lines are already strained, even without any Russian sabotage.)
But they reflect how the Kremlin has become increasingly brazen in its efforts to stem the flow of Western aid to Ukraine, part of a worrying trend that could increase the probability of a military confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Russia has warned that several NATO countries’ recent decisions to allow Ukraine to use their weapons to strike Russian territory could escalate the conflict, and President Vladimir Putin suggested that Moscow could supply long-range weapons to enemies of the West in response (though he didn’t offer specifics). NATO allies say the decision is necessary for Ukraine to be able to defend itself, particularly in vulnerable Ukrainian cities near the Russian border.
Cheap wins. One of the reasons that Russia engages in such sophisticated gradations of hybrid warfare is because it’s a relatively low-risk, low-cost, and potentially high-reward strategy, multiple European officials who spoke to SitRep said. These officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security issues. The campaign in Europe is being run primarily by the Russian military intelligence branch, known as the GRU, officials said. Moscow has arranged this campaign through proxies—Russian diaspora groups and criminal gangs it has links to—to make it harder to trace specific acts directly back to the Russian government.
Even if the attacks fail, top European officials say they are clearly aimed at intimidating Western countries and imposing higher costs on them for continuing to support Ukraine in its over two-year-long war against the Russian invasion.
Another advantage for Russia: It’s easy (at least in theory) to deter conventional military attacks but much harder for Western countries to deter hybrid attacks. Such operations also fall below the threshold of an overt military attack that could trigger NATO’s Article 5 collective-defense clause. (Despite Moscow’s gloves-off onslaught in Ukraine, it still clearly wants to avoid a military showdown with NATO.)
No quick and easy solution. The surge in new sabotage and espionage cases has alarmed Western national security officials, who concede there’s no silver-bullet strategy to halt Russian hybrid attacks.
The best counter-strategy is one that is costly and diffuse, spread across all aspects of society. Western countries’ current counter-strategy amounts to a combination of heightened vigilance, beefing up national resilience by hardening critical and cyber infrastructure, increasing public awareness of these threats, and doubling down on the types of police and counterintelligence work they’re already doing. On that last front, Western governments have clearly been busy, with headlines of suspected Russian spies being arrested across Europe cropping up almost weekly.
Let’s Get Personnel
Maryland Democratic Rep. Kweisi Mfume has been appointed to the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Varun Sivaram has joined the Council on Foreign Relations as a senior fellow for energy and climate.
The Center for a New American Security has named Bob Sorensen, of technology firm Hyperion Research, as an adjunct senior fellow in its Technology and National Security program.
Abraham Denmark, senior advisor for the AUKUS initiative at the Pentagon, is leaving his post.
On the Button
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Nothing to see here. Russia and Belarus began the second phase of joint tactical nuclear weapons drills on Tuesday, which officials in Moscow have stated are intended to be a shot across the bow at Western governments. Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council, said on Tuesday that the exercises were a response to “Western support of the Kyiv regime.”
Last year, Russia transferred a number of its tactical nuclear weapons to neighboring Belarus, which borders several NATO members, further cementing the country’s place in Moscow’s orbit in the wake of mass street protests in 2020 that rattled longtime President Aleksandr Lukashenko’s grip on power.
“The deployment of nuclear weapons in our country anchors the presence of Russia in Belarus for many, many years ahead,” said Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in an interview with FP this week. “It is subjugating a piece of our sovereignty.”
War crimes investigation. A United Nations commission of inquiry has accused Israel and Palestinian armed groups of committing war crimes during the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel and in the subsequent war in Gaza. The accusations, which came in a report released on Wednesday, are the result of the first in-depth U.N. investigation into the conflict.
The report itself does not carry any immediate legal consequences, but it found that Israel, which did not cooperate with the investigation, is likely responsible for a number of war crimes including using starvation as a method of warfare, willful killing, directing attacks on civilians, and committing sexual violence. Hamas and six other Palestinian armed groups also stand accused of committing war crimes on Oct. 7 including murder, rape, torture, and the taking of hostages.
Also this week, an investigation published by the start-up news outlet Zeteo found that Israeli soldiers have posted hundreds of photos on social media from Gaza, including images of Palestinian detainees stripped down to their underwear and Israeli troops posing with women’s lingerie and other personal items inside Palestinian homes. A spokesperson for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) told the outlet that all of the images it uncovered were “inconsistent with the values of the IDF” and that a number of instances highlighted in the report had already been examined and “dealt with at the disciplinary and command level.”
Improving America’s cyber health. The Biden administration is trying to call in the big guns to protect America’s hospitals from being crippled by cyberattacks. A new partnership with Google and Microsoft announced by the White House this week will see the two tech giants provide heavily subsidized cybersecurity support to rural hospitals across the United States.
It’s part of a broader fight to protect U.S. critical infrastructure systems from cybercriminals and malicious ransomware attacks; attacks on hospitals are seen as one of the highest-risk ways that cyberattacks could directly lead to the deaths of innocent civilians. Cyberattacks against the U.S. health care system went up by a staggering 128 percent between 2022 and 2023, according to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Those attacks have come “largely from Russia-based criminals,” Deputy National Security Advisor Anne Neuberger told reporters in a briefing on the new initiative.—Rishi Iyengar
Put on Your Radar
Thursday, June 13: U.S. President Joe Biden arrives in Italy for a G-7 summit.
NATO defense ministers begin a two-day meeting in Brussels.
Quote of the Week
“I’m a woman, and I’m trying to coach 15 men who all have egos. So yeah, you’ve got to be a little hard on them. I run a tight ship.”
—U.S. Rep. Linda T. Sánchez, on coaching her roster of Democratic members of Congress ahead of the annual Democrat-versus-Republican congressional baseball game.
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Naming rights. Our favorite headline of the week comes from Politico Europe: “Tony Blair meets Tonibler, Tonibler, Tonibler, Tonibler, and Tonibler.” Evidently, naming children after the former British prime minister who played a significant role in Kosovo’s liberation 25 years ago is common among many Kosovars.
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