Britain’s heading for an IMF bailout? The economists are screaming 1976. For once, they might be right.

ENB Pub Note: There is a lot more to this story than meets the eye. Why is Zelensky refusing to talk with President Putin? He is now acting like the spoiled child he is, and demanding a billion dollars a month to pay for retirement, salaries, and other programs. The UK has been on a downward spiral for decades, and Net Zero and its deindustrializing energy policies are only one part of the problem. Now, if the Bank of London is as broke as I think they are, this is only one of the problems, and time will tell. They need a war to keep printing money and blaming problems on someone else to stay in power. Some of the comments in the thread supported the UK’s not-quite-dead-yet mindset. I suppose that’s okay when you have followed the Net-Zero destruction of your country’s energy policies.

The following is from LinkedIn Glenn Handley’s post. 

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Britain’s heading for an IMF bailout? The economists are screaming 1976. For once, they might be right.

I was 8 when Healey went cap in hand to the IMF. Started trading just after Black Monday. Built markets through 6 crises since. And this time feels different. Worse.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗹𝗶𝗲:

30-year gilts at 5.54%? Higher than Greece.
Debt servicing: £111bn annually. That’s £1 in every £12.
The deficit: £50bn black hole and growing.
Growth forecast: Flatline at best.

But here’s the killer: In 1976, we had options. Today? Reeves has painted us into a corner.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲:

This isn’t bad luck. It’s bad choices compounding:

• Tax rises already maxed out (killing growth)
• Spending cuts politically impossible
• QE off the table (inflation lurking)
• Markets have lost all faith

When bond vigilantes smell blood, they don’t stop until someone capitulates.

And Reeves? She’s out of ammunition.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺:

Every escape route is blocked:

Cut spending? The unions riot.
Raise taxes more? Already destroying the economy.
Print money? Sterling crashes.
Borrow more? Markets saying no.

I’ve traded through everything. ERM collapse. LTCM. 2008. The LDI crisis.

This is the first time I don’t see a way out.

𝗠𝘆 𝟯𝟰-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗿𝘂𝗹𝗲:

When politicians run out of options, markets make the decisions for them.

And the market’s decision is clear: UK debt is becoming untouchable.

Foreign buyers? Stepping back.
Domestic institutions? Already stuffed.
The BoE? Can’t buy when they’re selling.

That leaves… nobody.

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴:

Forget the autumn Budget. Events are moving faster:

→ Gilt auctions will start failing
→ Sterling will test new lows
→ Mortgage rates will spike
→ The BoE will panic

And then? The phone call to Washington.

Because when you’ve spent everything, borrowed everything, and taxed everything… there’s only one lender left.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘆:

Reeves promised to “fix the foundations.”

Instead, she’s demolished them:
• Business confidence: destroyed
• International credibility: gone
• Fiscal headroom: negative

Even Healey had more to work with.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲:

We’re not heading for a 1976-style crisis. We’re heading for something worse.

Because in 1976, the medicine worked. Today? We’re immune to every cure.

The only question: How long before Reeves makes the call?