Duke CEO Sees AI Fueling Power Growth at 10 Times Historic Pace

Duke Energy President and CEO Harry Sideris delivered a clear message at the Edison Electric Institute convention in Las Vegas today: artificial intelligence and data centers are reshaping U.S. power demand at a pace never seen before. With 30 years at the company, Sideris noted that Duke has historically experienced annual load growth of just 0% to 0.5%. “We’ve never seen load growth like we have experienced in the last year,” he said. “Now we are looking at 10 times that.”

The comments, made in a Bloomberg Television interview, underscore the explosive growth in Duke’s service territories across the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwest, fueled by AI-driven data centers and broader electrification. They come just weeks after Duke’s Q1 2026 earnings, where the company detailed a robust pipeline of contracted large-load projects and reaffirmed aggressive forward guidance tied to this surge.

Q1 2026 Earnings: Data Centers Drive Momentum

Duke reported strong first-quarter results on May 5, 2026. Adjusted earnings per share reached $1.93, beating consensus estimates and rising from $1.76 in Q1 2025. Operating revenues totaled approximately $9.18 billion. The beat was driven by infrastructure investment recovery and favorable weather, partially offset by higher O&M and depreciation costs.

The standout highlight was Duke’s accelerating data center momentum. Since the Q4 2025 call, the company signed an additional 2.7 GW of Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) with data center customers, bringing the total executed to approximately 7.6 GW. Nearly two-thirds (about 5 GW) of these projects are already under construction. Duke also maintains a high-confidence, late-stage pipeline of 15.4 GW, inclusive of the signed ESAs.

Construction on the first wave of data centers is underway, with customers expected to begin taking power in the second half of 2027, ramping to full contracted load through the early 2030s. These contracts include protective provisions—such as minimum billing demand, refundable credit support, and interruptibility clauses—that ensure large-load customers pay their fair share while shielding existing residential and commercial ratepayers from cost shifts.

Forward-Looking Statements: $103 Billion Capital Plan and Accelerated Load Growth

Duke reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 and its long-term adjusted EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2030 (off the 2025 midpoint of $6.30). Management expressed confidence in achieving the top half of the long-term range beginning in 2028 as large-load projects come online.

The company’s $103 billion five-year capital plan (2026–2030)—the largest regulated capital plan in the industry—underpins this outlook. It includes roughly 14 GW of new generation capacity by 2031 through an “all-of-the-above” approach: advancing more than 7.5 GW of new natural gas generation (with EPC contracts signed for the first 5 GW), uprates to the existing fleet (>1 GW), 4.5 GW of battery storage, new solar, and optionality for small modular reactors (SMRs). Duke is also modernizing its vast transmission and distribution system, transforming approximately 320,000 miles of power lines.

Load growth forecasts reflect the AI tailwind: enterprise-wide growth of 3%–4% in 2026 and 1.5%–2% annually from 2027–2030. In the Carolinas, projections are even stronger at ~2% in 2026 and 4%–5% annually thereafter. The Carolinas resource plan now shows 2035 energy demand 7% higher than the prior forecast, driven by data centers and advanced manufacturing.

Sideris emphasized customer-focused execution: “We’re advancing the economies of the states we serve by making the right investments at the right time in a way that delivers value for our customers and communities. From maximizing our existing fleet, to constructing new generation and strengthening the grid, we’re executing today and building for the future—all while pursuing solutions to keep rates as low as possible.”

How Duke Stacks Up in the Data Center AI Race

Duke is emerging as a leader among regulated utilities in converting AI-driven demand into firm, revenue-certain contracts while protecting existing customers. Its 7.6 GW of executed ESAs and 15.4 GW pipeline provide planning certainty that many peers lack. The $103 billion capex plan outpaces major competitors: NextEra (~$75 billion), Southern Company (~$63 billion), Dominion Energy (~$50 billion), and American Electric Power (~$54 billion) over comparable periods.

Dominion Energy (Virginia): Sits at the epicenter of data center activity, with requests totaling up to 70 GW—nearly triple its peak load. Data centers already represent a massive share of Virginia’s load, but much of this remains in the request/queue stage rather than signed ESAs. Dominion is planning 27 GW of new generation by 2039, yet faces rate pressure and regulatory scrutiny over cost allocation.

AEP: Reports a queue exceeding 30 GW (mostly data centers) that could nearly double its load in five years, but has paused new service agreements due to capacity constraints.

Southern Company and others: Maintain sizable plans but trail Duke’s scale of committed capital and executed large-load contracts.

Duke’s advantages include geographic diversity (Carolinas, Florida, Midwest), strong regulatory mechanisms for cost recovery, and explicit contract structures that spread fixed costs over a larger base—ensuring data centers “pay their fair share” without burdening residential bills. While data centers currently represent less than 1% of peak demand in the Carolinas, Duke’s contracted ramp provides visibility that positions it ahead in the race to serve hyperscalers without compromising reliability or affordability.

Outlook

Duke Energy’s combination of historic load acceleration, record contracted data center volume, and the industry’s largest regulated capital plan signals confidence that AI is not a short-term hype cycle but a multi-decade driver of power sector growth. With protections for legacy customers baked in and generation buildout already underway, Duke appears well-positioned to capitalize on the AI power boom while delivering on its EPS targets.