The results of the EU elections have had a bigger impact on many EU countries than the European Parliament itself.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections after a “crushing defeat” by the far-right.
In Berlin, the sharp rise of far-right AfD – which ranked second – and the sweeping victory of centre-right CDU-CSU, find the coalition government led by social democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz significantly weakened.
In Madrid, pressure mounts on the ruling PSOE party, as the centre-right PP won the elections, adding to an already fragile political landscape.
In Copenhagen, the centrist coalition government lost almost 15% within two years since the last election, while in Tallinn, Kaja Kallas’ centrist ruling party is in crisis mode as it came third but won’t call snap elections.
In Athens, centre-right New Democracy lost 1.1 million votes in one year and mulls reshuffling the government. Even in Budapest, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party lost ground, in what could be its worst score in its 14-year rule.
On the other hand, the new balances in the EU Parliament show that a steady pro-EU coalition is a realistic scenario despite the rise of far-right across Europe.
The centre-right EPP, the EU socialists and liberal Renew could form a 403-seat majority.
The results increase the possibility of EPP candidate Ursula von der Leyen being reelected as the EU Commission’s chief.
Aurélie Pugnet, Max Griera and Alexandra Brzozowski have more.
“The majority of the centrist three looks pretty solid […] probably ahead of 410 seats”, Christopher Glück, managing director at the political analysis firm Forefront Advisers, told Euractiv.
Glück also noted that von der Leyen no longer needs Meloni’s or ECR’s support to get reelected in the Commission and that the negotiations between the EPP, S&D, and Renew will now be “straightforward.”
EU socialists have said they would not back von der Leyen if there would be any kind of cooperation with ECR or Meloni.
“I expect there will be quite a lot in the Draghi report that EU socialists will like, especially in the economy, as well as they will ask for reassurances about the rule of law […] while liberal Renew will seek commitments about better regulation”, the analyst said.
Contacted by Euractiv, an S&D source said that, indeed, von der Leyen will not have any issue getting a majority in the EU Parliament.
However, the source said one should wait first for what the EU leaders will decide, as the 2019 EU elections set a precedent with Manfred Weber ranking first but not being elected as Commission’s president.
