Greeks are going to the ballots for the EU elections fuming over skyrocketing prices, especially of food and fuel, which have sparked an intense political debate among parties over how to stem the seemingly unstoppable inflation.
The inflation has caused headaches for the ruling centre-right New Democracy (European People’s Party/EPP). Combined with an unresolved train accident that killed 57 people and caused public anger, this could translate into a loss of thousands of votes, polls estimate.
According to a poll published on Tuesday on MEGA TV channel, 40% of respondents consider soaring prices as the country’s main problem.
Greece had the second highest food inflation rate among eurozone countries in March, Eurostat data shows.
Malta tops the list with 6.2% followed by Greece, where food inflation stood at 5.4%, and Spain at 4.4%.
Olive oil, a key product of Greece, saw the second highest inflation (67.2%) behind Spain (70%) while the EU average was 51.5%.
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis recently sent a letter to European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen urging her to take action to defend consumers against multinationals. The Netherlands, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Luxembourg, and Slovakia co-signed the letter.
The main opposition party, leftist Syriza, insists on scrapping the VAT on foodstuffs and basic products, citing the examples of other southern EU countries like Spain, which kept zero VAT until June 2024 and slashed food inflation from 16.5% in March 2023 to 4.4% in March 2024.
In addition, the Commission’s General Directorate of Energy reaffirmed that Greece is one of Europe’s most expensive markets in fuel.
EU data suggests that fuel prices in Greece are consistently higher than the EU average: The retail price of unleaded gasoline (after tax) in Greece was 1.949 euros/liter, the third most expensive, after the Netherlands (€2.046) and Denmark (€2.045).
Wounded centre-right still leads polls
The same poll projected that New Democracy would still win the EU elections with 31%, followed by Syriza (EU Left) with 15.7% and socialist Pasok (S&D) with 12.9%.
The Communist party stands at 7.9%, followed by the conservative Greek Solution (ECR) at 7.3%.
Similar data is provided by Euractiv’s partner Europe Elects, with New Democracy estimated to get seven seats, Syriza four, and socialists three.
Greeks will elect in total 21 MEPs and the threshold stands at 3%.
The parties’ objectives
Analysts in Athens suggest that despite New Democracy’s victory, the political landscape that will emerge after the elections may send multiple messages.
New Democracy has been governing the country since July 2019, following a sweeping victory against leftist Alexis Tsipras (Syriza). The Greek centre-right party repeated its victory in the 2023 election and went on to win local elections last October.
For Mitsotakis, it will be crucial to remain above 30%, considering that in the last national election he scored 41%, and keep the decline since last year at below 10 percentage points.
For Syriza’s Stefanos Kasselakis – who replaced Tsipras at the helm – maintaining the rates of the 2023 regional elections (17.8%) is a prerequisite to avoid his leadership being questioned.
Kasselakis told Euractiv in an interview in early May that his party’s results will be “surprising”.
Socialist leader Nikos Androulakis may also see his leadership challenged as his party’s ratings have been stuck at 11.5% since 2023.
A progressive front in sight?
Overall, analysts estimate that the election result will send a message to progressive parties (Syriza, Pasok and other smaller parties) that they will be able to overthrow the conservatives from power only by joining forces.
In a recent interview with Euractiv, the leader of New Left Alexis Charitsis (projected to have one MEP), called on Pasok and Syriza to end their “hegemony” approach and agree with other progressive forces on an alternative governance plan.
Read more: Greek leftist chief calls for a ‘progressive’ front to overthrow conservatives
Both Syriza and Pasok fish in the same voter pool and their leaders do not have the best relations.
Who could lead such a potential coalition is still unknown, but the topic has already triggered discussions.
A GPO survey published earlier this week by the Parapolitika journal suggested that progressive voters consider former Prime Minister Tsipras (16%) as the most suitable person to unite progressive forces, followed by Pasok’s Androulakis (13.4%) and Syriza’s Kasselakis (10.5%).
Which EU portfolio for Athens?
All parties expected to have MEPs – except The Greek Solution (ECR) and communists – are pro-EU, although they disagree on issues related to migration and economic policies.
New Democracy is considered powerful in the EPP and it was Mitsotakis who nominated – together with his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk – von der Leyen to lead the EU centre-right’s EU election campaign.
Syriza’s Kasselakis has said he will stick to the EU Left family but stressed that he wants his party to be a bridge between the EU socialists and the Greens.
Regarding potential portfolios in the next EU Commission, rumours in Athens suggest that Greece will be granted either agriculture or enlargement, although sources point out that Mitsotakis has requested a “productive” portfolio such as competitiveness, while the EPP insists there are no discussions about portfolios yet.
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