In the evolving landscape of global energy, the United States is positioning itself as a powerhouse not just through domestic production but via strategic international expansions. With President Trump’s administration reshaping trade deals and forging new alliances, U.S. oil majors like ExxonMobil and Chevron are seizing opportunities in OPEC and OPEC+ nations. This shift marks a pivotal moment where American expertise in exploration and oilfield services is driving growth abroad, contrasting sharply with European counterparts bogged down by aggressive Net Zero agendas.
“Energy Security Starts at Home, But Your Energy Dominance comes through Exports” -Stu Turley, Energy News Beat Podcast Host.
Well, Stu, is updating that quote to include exporting your oil companies’ technical services and expertise to boost global production.
Trump’s Trade Realignments Open Doors for U.S. Expansion
The Trump administration’s assertive foreign policy has redrawn the oil map, particularly in high-risk, high-reward regions tied to OPEC. Venezuela, boasting the world’s largest oil reserves, stands out as a prime example. Following the U.S. military’s capture of former leader Nicolás Maduro, the administration is fast-tracking general licenses for U.S. companies to produce oil and gas there.
This move aims to revive Venezuela’s crumbling energy infrastructure, with Trump calling for U.S. firms to invest up to $100 billion to restore historic output levels.
Profits would be shared among Venezuelans, the U.S., and the companies, creating a model for mutual benefit.ExxonMobil and Chevron are at the forefront. Chevron, already operating joint ventures with Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA, plans to ramp up production by 50% in the next 18-24 months, potentially reaching 375,000 barrels per day.
The company could process an additional 100,000 barrels daily in its U.S. refineries.
Exxon, which exited Venezuela nearly two decades ago after nationalizations, is now eyeing a return, leveraging its technological edge to extract heavy crude cost-effectively.
Both CEOs emphasize the need for stable legal frameworks and political clarity before committing long-term, but the administration’s backing provides a competitive edge over foreign rivals.
Beyond Venezuela, U.S. majors are negotiating in Iraq, Libya, Algeria, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan—nations aligned with OPEC+.
This expansion isn’t just about barrels; it’s about exporting American talent, corporate experience, and oilfield services to enhance global production efficiency.
European Majors Flounder Amid Net Zero Commitments
In stark contrast, European oil giants like Shell, BP, TotalEnergies, Eni, and Equinor are struggling. Their heavy pivot to Net Zero projects has led to higher debt levels—net debt as a proportion of equity is about a third higher than their North American peers—and lower market valuations.
U.S. companies trade at a premium of more than three-quarters to Europeans based on EBITDA multiples.
This disparity stems from Europe’s aggressive climate policies, which have diverted resources from core oil and gas operations. BP’s ousted CEO admitted the company’s optimism in the energy transition was “misplaced,” leading to a strategic reset focused on hydrocarbons.
Shell has halved green spending while boosting oil and gas output.
Meanwhile, U.S. majors like Exxon and Chevron project robust production growth: 6% and 8% annually through 2030, respectively.
The U.S. energy sector is up 17% year-to-date, with the combined market cap of Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips rising 25% over the past year.
The Trump administration’s reversal of Biden-era net zero commitments has further emboldened U.S. firms, while Europe’s Green Deal faces internal opposition and U.S. interference, weakening ambitions on sustainability regulations.
As one analysis notes, fossil fuel subsidies and anti-transition agendas risk leading the U.S. and EU into industrial decline, but U.S. majors are capitalizing on realism over ideology.
Exporting Expertise: The Key to True Energy Dominance
As Stu Turley often says on the Energy News Beat Podcast, “Energy Security starts at home, but Dominance comes through your Exports.” This mantra extends beyond crude and LNG to the export of American talent and corporate expertise. U.S. oilfield services are embedded in global projects, from Venezuela’s heavy oil fields to OPEC+ negotiations, adding value through advanced drilling, reservoir management, and efficiency gains.
This “service dominance” amplifies U.S. influence. By partnering in larger projects, American firms not only boost host nations’ output but also secure long-term revenue streams and geopolitical leverage. With global oil demand projected to grow until 2050—potentially adding 12.8 million barrels per day above 2024 levels—U.S. expertise positions the country to offset natural field declines and meet rising needs.
What Investors Should Watch For
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Factor
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Key Considerations
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Strategic Partnerships and Contracts
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Look for joint ventures in OPEC+ hotspots like Venezuela, Iraq, and Kazakhstan. Announcements of new licenses or deals signal entry into high-reserve areas with U.S. government support.
finance.yahoo.com
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Production Growth Forecasts
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Prioritize firms with clear paths to 5-8% annual increases, like Exxon and Chevron. Monitor capex plans—U.S. E&P spending is projected to decline slightly in 2026, but majors may buck the trend through acquisitions.
gabelli.com
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Financial Health and Debt Levels
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U.S. majors’ lower debt shields dividends and buybacks, offering stability amid volatility. Compare to Europeans’ higher leverage for relative value.
ft.com
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Political and Regulatory Stability
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Track host country reforms, such as Venezuela’s new laws granting private producers autonomy.
energynews.oedigital.com
U.S. backing reduces risks, but watch for geopolitical shifts. |
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Technological Edge in Services
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Companies exporting advanced tech for heavy crude or shale-like plays will gain premiums. Exxon’s cost-reduction capabilities in Venezuela exemplify this.
energynow.com
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Market Valuations and Sentiment
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With U.S. stocks at premiums, seek undervalued plays in services firms poised for international growth. Avoid overexposure to Net Zero-focused Europeans lagging behind.
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In summary, U.S. oil majors are not just producing—they’re leading through service exports, cementing energy dominance in a multipolar world. As trade blocs realign, these opportunities could redefine global energy for decades. Investors attuned to these dynamics stand to benefit from America’s resurgence. The new trading blocs around the world will evolve and align with energy policies, free trade, and prosperity. The other countries that follow Net Zero will lose their oil companies, as they move to areas where windfall profits taxes and Net Zero have a place. And that is in the Dumpster. If Shakespeare were writing a play, it would not be “To Be Or Not”, it would be “To Prosper Through Energy Or Not”.
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