In the ever-shifting landscape of global energy markets, headlines often paint a picture of dramatic pivots driven by geopolitics and sanctions. A recent article from OilPrice.com suggests that India is “racing” to swap out its hefty reliance on Russian crude for supplies from the United States, Iraq, and the UAE, spurred by fresh U.S. sanctions on key Russian oil giants like Rosneft and Lukoil.
According to the report, Indian refiners such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp. and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals have snapped up 5 million barrels of spot market crude for January delivery—2 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate from the U.S., 1 million barrels of Basra Medium from Iraq, and 2 million barrels of Murban from the UAE. The sanctions, set to kick in on November 21, 2025, target entities responsible for half of Russia’s oil exports, potentially disrupting the discounted Russian barrels that have fueled India’s energy needs since the Ukraine conflict began.
But is this really a full-throttle race to diversification, or just a temporary hedge amid ongoing evasion tactics?
Energy analyst Anas Alhajji, in a pointed X post, highlights a different reality: eight sanctioned tankers laden with Russian Urals crude are en route to a sanctioned Indian refinery, effectively thumbing their noses at Western restrictions.
Eight sanctioned tankers carrying Russian Urals crude to a sanctioned Indian refinery. The lesson is clear:
If you sanction the whole supply chain, you force everyone in the supply chain to cooperate, nullifying your sanctions!
Map from @Kpler pic.twitter.com/G1L3swvOVL
— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) November 10, 2025
Accompanying his post is a Kpler map showing these vessels—names like Ce Bermuda Sprint 2, Luxor, Kira K, and Ursus Maritimus—clustered along the Arabian Sea route from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait toward Indian ports. The pink-shaded path underscores the persistent flow despite Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea and the broader sanctions regime. Alhajji’s takeaway? “If you sanction the whole supply chain, you force everyone in the supply chain to cooperate, nullifying your sanctions!”This isn’t an isolated incident. The OilPrice piece itself notes suspicious ship-to-ship transfers off India’s coast involving sanctioned tankers like the Ailana and Fortis, allowing Russian oil to slip into ports like Kochi under the radar.
Such maneuvers echo the rise of the “dark fleet”—shadowy vessels that evade tracking and insurance requirements imposed by G7 price caps and sanctions. As we’ve covered extensively here at Energy News Beat, these tactics demonstrate a hard truth: sanctions often don’t work as intended.
Take our in-depth analysis in “Why The US Dollar Could FAIL With More Financial Sanctions,” where we detailed how Russia’s dark fleet—comprising around 400 crude tankers and 64 LNG vessels in 2024—continues to skirt restrictions.
Not only do these ships keep the oil flowing, but transactions are increasingly settled in rubles or other non-dollar currencies, bypassing the U.S. financial system entirely. This isn’t just logistical gamesmanship; it’s a direct blow to the petrodollar’s dominance. As the piece argues, “Sanctions don’t work on the way that they’ve got it set up… the fact that now they’re going around the US dollar is also showing the rest of the world that maybe the dollar doesn’t need to be the reserve currency.”The broader implications are stark. Weaponizing the U.S. dollar through sanctions has accelerated de-dollarization trends, hurting American consumers and the currency’s global standing more than the targeted regimes. In “The Myth of the Inevitable Rise of a Petroyuan,” we explored how U.S. actions against Venezuela, Russia, and Iran have pushed oil trade toward alternatives, even if a full petroyuan takeover remains a myth.
Similarly, “The (Declining) Status of the US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency” highlights IMF data showing the USD’s share of foreign exchange reserves dipping to 57.7% in Q1 2025, as central banks diversify into other currencies and gold.
Consumers bear the brunt. European households, for instance, face higher energy bills as the EU rushes to ban Russian LNG earlier than planned, potentially relying on pricier U.S. supplies.
In India, any genuine shift away from discounted Russian crude could inflate refining costs, trickling down to everyday fuel prices. Yet, as Alhajji’s map illustrates, the flow persists—sanctioned or not.Even potential U.S. tariffs and sanctions on India itself, as discussed in “President Trump’s Tariffs and Sanctions on India Will Do More Damage to the U.S. Dollar in a Boomerang,” could backfire spectacularly.
Such moves might only hasten the development of BRICS payment systems or decentralized currencies, further eroding the dollar’s reserve status. China’s rumored push for a new global currency, as outlined in our coverage, could reshape oil trade entirely, challenging the 1970s petrodollar system.
In our podcast with George McMillan, we delved into how geopolitics and dollar weaponization are reshaping energy alliances, warning that past lessons could prevent future conflicts—but only if policymakers heed them.
The Biden administration’s EV mandates and broader energy policies have similarly spotlighted this issue, with non-dollar trades thriving amid perceived overreach.
So, is India truly ditching Russian oil?
The spot buys suggest some diversification, but the dark fleet’s persistence and evasion tactics tell a different story. Sanctions may create headlines and short-term scrambles, but they ultimately empower workarounds that undermine U.S. leverage. As always, it’s the consumers—and the dollar—who pay the price. Stay tuned to Energy News Beat for unfiltered insights into the real dynamics of global energy.
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