The global energy crisis has exposed vulnerabilities in supply chains, driving up prices and underscoring the fragility of overreliance on imports. Energy security, once a secondary concern, is now a cornerstone of national policy, ensuring stable access to affordable resources amid disruptions.
Countries are turning inward, ramping up domestic production to shield economies from external shocks. This shift is evident in surging drilling programs across China, India, the EU, and the UK, where leaders are balancing the push for renewables with the immediate need for fossil fuel self-sufficiency.
The EU and UK’s Awakening to Domestic Energy Needs
Europe’s energy landscape has undergone a seismic transformation since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which slashed pipeline gas supplies and triggered skyrocketing prices. The continent, long focused on accelerating its clean energy transition, is now pivoting to bolster domestic oil and gas exploration to curb dependence on costly LNG imports, particularly from the US.
This “drill, baby, drill” resurgence is driven by high energy costs and the realization that renewables alone cannot yet fill the gap left by disrupted supplies.In Greece, the agenda has flipped from shutting down coal plants to prioritizing offshore drilling. Energean, a Mediterranean gas producer, is partnering with Exxon to explore western Greece, with potential reserves that could make the country energy independent.
Italy, meanwhile, is reopening discussions on new licenses after a court overturned a ban on exploration, eyeing areas adjacent to Greek prospects.
Even Cyprus is part of this Mediterranean push, as Europe competes with cheaper gas from the US and Qatar. Energean’s CEO, Mathios Rigas, emphasizes the need for a “change in mentality” to achieve continental energy independence, warning that past policies have taken the wrong course.
The UK, post-Brexit, is also loosening restrictions. In late 2025, the government allowed new drilling in existing North Sea fields via Transitional Energy Certificates, while maintaining a ban on entirely new exploration licenses.
This comes amid warnings of a “survival mode” crisis, with zero exploration wells drilled in 2025—the first such year since 1960—and projections of a 55% production decline by 2030.
Consolidation is accelerating, with operators bracing for mergers under a 78% tax burden, yet the move signals a pragmatic acknowledgment that domestic output is essential for bridging the energy transition.
Across the EU, natural gas production is stabilizing, with forecasts of 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2026, slightly down from 2025 but bolstered by new projects like Romania’s Neptune Deep field ramping up in 2027.
LNG imports are expected to surge to 145 million tons in 2026, a 19% increase, but the revival of domestic drilling aims to reduce this reliance, enhancing security amid volatile global markets.
China’s Massive Push for Self-Reliance
China, the world’s largest energy consumer, exemplifies the drive for domestic security through aggressive drilling expansions. Since President Xi Jinping’s 2018 call to “vigorously enhance domestic oil and gas exploration,” the country has invested nearly $470 billion in upstream activities from 2019 onward, outpacing even Saudi Aramco.
This has propelled oil production from 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 to 4.3 million bpd in 2025, with CNOOC planning another 40,000 bpd boost in 2026 through its Bohai Bay campaign.
Natural gas output has surged even more dramatically, rising 43% from 2018 to 2023 and hitting 232 bcm in 2024, with targets of 300 bcm by 2030.
State-owned giants like PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC are leading this charge, with 2026 production growth projected at 2-5%, primarily in gas as a transitional fuel.
Offshore fields have seen a 60% production lift between 2018 and 2024, while unconventional techniques like hydraulic fracturing in shale formations are unlocking mature fields.
This buildup is a direct response to geopolitical risks, with China maintaining a 60% self-sufficiency rate despite imports peaking at 11.45 million bpd in 2025.
By adding 11 new oil reserve sites in 2025-2026 with 169 million barrels of capacity, Beijing is fortifying against supply disruptions.
India’s Exploration Boom Amid Import Dependency
India, importing 85% of its crude oil, is aggressively expanding domestic drilling to mitigate vulnerabilities.
Since 2015, 172 hydrocarbon discoveries have been reported, including 62 offshore, fueled by policies like the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP) and a 99% reduction in “No-Go” offshore areas.
Exploration acreage is set to double to 1 million square kilometers by 2030, attracting $100 billion in investments.
State firms like ONGC and Oil India are ramping up: Oil India plans 80 wells in 2026 and 100 the next year to sustain 2-3% production growth.
The offshore drilling market size is projected to grow from $319.79 million in 2023 to $850.14 million by 2031.
Refining capacity aims to hit 310 million metric tons per annum (MMTPA) by 2030, up from 256.8 MMTPA.
These efforts address a 5.21% decline in crude production to 30.49 million tons in 2020-21, with a focus on reducing import reliance amid global tensions.
Why Energy Security Matters More Than Ever
Geopolitical risks—trade wars, sanctions, and conflicts—directly threaten energy supplies, spiking prices and forcing nations to stockpile or diversify.
integrityenergy.com
Such tensions increase energy consumption in both developed and developing countries, while disrupting exports and imports.
The green transition promises long-term security through domestic renewables, but fossil fuels remain vital during this bridge period. Many question how long it will take for “Green Energy Technology” to become truly sustainable without subsidies.
“We are in an energy addition, and until wind turbines and solar panels can be manufactured from steel without fossil fuels, we will not be in an energy transition. Physics matters for theft, energy generation, and the grid. Without obeying the laws of physics or fiscal responsibility, the grid will fail.” – Stu Turley
Critical materials for clean tech introduce new dependencies, differing from oil’s chokepoints but risking transition delays.
Amid these challenges, energy security fosters economic stability, sustainable development, and resilience against climate and cyber threats.
As the IEA notes, evolving threats demand a redefined approach: prioritizing affordable, reliable domestic sources over volatile imports.
A Balanced Path Forward
The surge in drilling across China, India, the EU, and the UK signals a global reckoning: energy security starts at home. While the green transition accelerates, pragmatic investments in domestic fossil fuels provide a buffer against volatility. For nations like these, blending self-reliance with innovation isn’t just a strategy—it’s survival in a turbulent world. As the Energy News Beat Podcast host Stu Turley says, “Energy Security starts at home, and Energy Dominance comes from your exports.”
One question unanswered today is how the long-term export market for LNG will play out. We will be watching to see how the EU and the UK implement their carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and whether this will force the US to adopt their carbon taxes, or whether their failure and potential economic collapse will drive them away from being potential energy customers. How will that impact the demand for US LNG? There are many unanswered questions on the horizon.
Sources: iea.org, FT.com, Energynewsbeat.co, iea.org
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