Secretary Scott Bessent has levers he can still pull to keep oil prices stable for a few weeks – Key Points from his Interview on Fox

As the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran roils global energy markets and pushes benchmark crude above $100 per barrel at times, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is wielding sanctions policy like a supply-side tool. With the Strait of Hormuz under pressure and Iranian exports partially disrupted, Bessent has already pulled several levers — temporary Russian oil sanctions waivers, coordinated Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases, and allowances for Iranian tankers to transit — to inject supply and cap price spikes. This morning on Mornings with Maria, Secretary Scott Bessent has some great insights into how they are waging a financial war on Iran, and how they plan on keeping the markets stable. You had to listen quickly.

Bessent’s strategy is clear: use Treasury authorities to create near-term supply without new drilling or long-term policy shifts. He has signaled that more moves are possible, including broader unsanctioning of floating sanctioned crude and additional SPR taps. The goal? Keep prices stable for consumers and businesses “for a few weeks” while the administration addresses the Iranian threat.

Treasury’s Available Levers to Bolster Global Supply

Bessent’s primary tools sit in sanctions enforcement and emergency reserves:

Sanctions waivers on Russian (and potentially Iranian) oil: The U.S. issued a 30-day global waiver (through April 11) allowing purchases of Russian crude and products already loaded on tankers. This expanded an earlier India-specific license and targets “stranded” barrels — up to 215 million across 370+ vessels in some estimates. Bessent emphasized it provides “no significant financial benefit” to Moscow while flooding markets with existing supply. Similar logic applies to Iranian tankers: the U.S. is explicitly allowing them through the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil moving.

SPR releases: The Trump administration authorized a 172 million barrel U.S. draw (part of a record 400 million barrel coordinated IEA release). Sales occur via competitive bids managed by the Department of Energy but coordinated at the policy level by Treasury. More releases remain on the table, per Bessent’s recent comments.

Other flexible tools: Selective licensing, diplomatic pressure on buyers, and potential insurance/guarantees via the Development Finance Corporation for Gulf shipping.

These are short-term, targeted measures designed to offset Hormuz disruptions without undermining long-term maximum-pressure sanctions.Would Fully Unsanctioning Iranian and Russian Oil Lower Prices for a Few Weeks?Yes — and significantly in the near term. Hundreds of millions of barrels of already-loaded sanctioned crude sit “on the water” in shadow-fleet tankers, ready for immediate delivery once buyer risks vanish.

Recent estimates place Iranian-sanctioned crude/condensate at 180–200+ million barrels (near record highs following pre-conflict ramp-ups), with Russian volumes at around 124–150 million barrels (down from earlier peaks but still substantial). Combined, this floating inventory equals 3–4 days of global consumption. Full or expanded unsanctioning would remove insurance, flag, and secondary-sanctions fears, accelerating discharges — primarily to Asia but also elsewhere. Markets would see a quick supply cushion, widening discounts on heavy/sour grades and capping rallies for weeks while tankers clear.

The 2026 releases follow the same model. Expect U.S. Gulf Coast refiners to snap up sour grades, process them, and help stabilize pump prices — a proven buffer that helped calm markets in prior crises.

Key Quotes from Secretary Bessent On Mornings with Maria:

” Well, again, Maria, I think we have to get the American people and our entire government back in the mindset of, there is no prosperity without security. There’s no prosperity. Without security. Any prosperity without the security is an illusion. “

Secretary Scott Bessent

” We are supplying the physical markets. ” – Secretary Scott Bessent – This his very significant. 

“Secretary Scott Bessent: President Trump is talking about, and to be clear, he has focused on Karg Island since 1988, before the Shaw fell, that the U.S. Should be focused on that. He is laser focused on it. As I said, there was a bombing campaign last week. The military assets on Karg island were destroyed. And the other thing I can tell you, if you’re an oil worker, you don’t want to work there. So all the oil workers there are being coerced to stay there. And we will see what happens with whether that eventually becomes a U.S. Asset.” 

Do not make any mistake, this is the key, and once this is controlled, and the other pipelines are secured, you will see the regime change quickly. They will have no money, and China has to be recalculating how they are going to be getting oi, and how this will impact the Belt and Road programs. They get raw materials at a fraction of the cost, and sell back Chinese goods and services at market prices. They will have to work on their business models.

🚨 WOW! Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent just announced plans to use Iran’s own oil AGAINST THEM

The strategy: un-sanction 140 million Iranian barrels already on the water, and UNLEASH 10-14 days of supply

“We’d be using the Iranian barrels AGAINST the Iranians to keep the price… pic.twitter.com/zY84IDzTJ4

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) March 19, 2026

How Oil Markets Would Change if U.S. Troops Took Kharg Island

Kharg Island is Iran’s oil jugular — handling 90%+ of its crude exports (roughly 1.3–1.6 million barrels per day loading capacity) plus 30+ million barrels of storage. Recent U.S. strikes hit military targets but spared oil infrastructure so far.

A full U.S. takeover or sustained disruption would immediately remove 1–2 million bpd from global supply.

Analysts warn of:

Sharp upstream shut-ins in southwest fields
Loss of Iran’s floating buffer
Potential retaliation could close the Strait of Hormuz entirely

Prices could spike exponentially — $150+/bbl scenarios and U.S. gasoline at $5–6/gallon are not off the table. Markets would see extreme volatility, wider sour discounts initially (as buyers scramble), and long-term redirection risks if the U.S. controls flows.

Bessent has stressed the U.S. is not currently targeting energy infrastructure and is letting Iranian oil flow to ease pressure — underscoring that Kharg escalation remains a high-risk hypothetical.

Venezuelan-Style Price Controls (or Sanctions Framework) on Iran

This scenario envisions U.S. control of Kharg paired with Venezuela-style oversight: payments routed through special U.S.-controlled accounts, bans on sales to Russia/Iran/North Korea/China entities, and forced discounts or directed flows. In the new Venezuelan system that the United States controls, China was invited to buy Venezuelan oil at market prices rather than the usual discounts. The U.S. just eased sanctions on Venezuelan PDVSA precisely to boost supply amid the Iran crisis. They have not purchased through the new system, as they had found Russian and Iranian oil on the Dark Fleet tankers. At least we cannot verify they have purchased from Venezuela, and we will keep looking for that verification.  That may dry up soon, so look for China to take as much as they have physical capacity to store.

This new financial control on oil will bring up foundational changes to the oil as well as the natural gas markets. Energy is now the main controlling lever tied to the monetary systems.

For Iran, the result would be regime revenue starvation (oil funds ~40%+ of budgets and proxies) while allowing managed exports to approved buyers. Markets could see discounted barrels hit shelves — but with distortions, black-market risks, and production drops mirroring Venezuela’s post-sanctions collapse. Long-term: potential redirection from China to the West, reshaping global flows.

If Iran’s Monetary System Is Already “Broken” (as Bessent Implicated), How Long Until Full Financial Collapse?

Bessent has been blunt: U.S. sanctions engineered a dollar shortage that triggered Iran’s December 2025 banking crisis — a major bank collapse, runs, money-printing, rial freefall (now exceeding 1.5 million per USD), and hyperinflation (food prices +70%+). Protests erupted nationwide. Elites are “wiring money out,” and the economy is “on the ropes.”The system is already in systemic breakdown — most banks are insolvent by central bank metrics, public finance is failing, and the rial is barely functioning as currency. Adding Kharg disruption, full Venezuelan-style controls, or sustained war pressure would accelerate the spiral. Expert consensus and Bessent’s own timeline point to full financial collapse (hyperinflation spiral, banking paralysis, mass unrest, or regime-threatening failure) in weeks to 1–3 months. The regime has survived crises before, but losing control of its currency and oil revenue simultaneously may prove fatal in 2026.

Bottom Line: Weeks of Stability Possible — But the Clock Is Ticking

Secretary Bessent has real, immediate levers — Russian waivers, SPR injections, and targeted Iranian allowances — to keep oil prices from spiraling out of control for the next few weeks. The floating sanctioned crude inventory and SPR barrels provide a tangible cushion. Yet the hypotheticals are stark: full unsanctioning delivers short-term relief; Kharg seizure or Venezuelan-style controls trigger supply shocks and regime collapse risks. Energy markets will remain hostage to how aggressively these levers are pulled versus how far military escalation goes.

For now, Bessent’s message is one of controlled disruption: temporary pain for long-term gain. American consumers and global refiners will be watching every waiver, every SPR tender, and every tanker movement out of the Gulf. Stu Turley will be covering some of the key talking points from Scott on Today’s Energy News Beat Stand Up.

The next few weeks will test whether the Treasury’s toolkit can outpace geopolitics. Energy News Beat will continue tracking Bessent’s next moves, SPR auctions, and shadow-fleet flows in real time.

 

Sources: npr.org, pbs.org, Foxbusiness.com, reuters.com,

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