Tag: Iraq

Oil Prices Slide as US Weighs Easing Sanctions on Shadow Fleet: Implications for Tanker Rates, Delivered Crude Costs, and Diesel Crack Spreads

Clark Savage209

Oil prices fell about 2% on October 15, 2026, after reports that the Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on vessels in the so-called “shadow fleet.” Brent crude futures dropped about $2.28 (2.2%) to around $103.78 a barrel, while WTI fell about $1.34 (1.4%) to roughly $93.75, reversing prior gains. The move reflected hopes that […]

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How has OPEC’s production pre-war and current output under stress?

Clark Savage157

The Iran war that began around February 28, 2026, with U.S.-Israeli strikes and subsequent Iranian responses, has reshaped OPEC+ crude production and, more sharply, refined product exports. Pre-war levels (roughly February 2026) represented a relatively stable baseline after earlier OPEC+ quota management. Current output remains under significant stress from Strait of Hormuz disruptions, infrastructure attacks, […]

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Why Are Global Diesel Prices So High? Exhibit A: Ukraine Drone Hits Novoshakhtinsk Refinery

Clark Savage929

A Ukrainian drone strike on Friday forced Russia’s Novoshakhtinsk refinery in the Rostov region offline, according to regional governor Yury Slyusar. The plant, which processes about 110,000 barrels per day (roughly 5–5.6 million tons per year), is not one of Russia’s giants. It is, however, a clean illustration of why diesel—the workhorse fuel for trucking, […]

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The real story is not that China is “back buying everything.” It is that Beijing throttled demand, shifted suppliers, drew inventories, and is now restocking only where landed cost still works — while $1 million-a-day VLCCs make a return to the old full-cycle buying pattern expensive and unlikely.

Clark Savage648

That is the argument Javier Blas is making in his September 23 Bloomberg Opinion column, China Isn’t Buying More Oil, It’s Buying From Different Markets (also framed as “Don’t Believe the Hype About China’s Oil Buying”). The global market treated China’s pre-war appetite as a floor. In 2026 it became a valve. The Blas thesis: […]

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Middle East Escalation Meets China’s Return: Dual Chokepoints, Record Tanker Rates, and an Upward Spiral in Crude and Products

Clark Savage944

The Middle East energy map tightened sharply over the past week even as China resumed heavier crude buying. Houthi forces seized key Red Sea positions including Mocha and Perim Island, tightening control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and targeting Saudi-linked vessels. Drones originating from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, prompting a precautionary shutdown of […]

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Diesel and Refining Capacity Set to be the Inflationary Impact The Fed Can’t Control

Clark Savage1371

The Federal Reserve can raise rates. The Treasury can issue bills. Neither institution can weld a crude distillation unit back together after a drone strike, add inches to a California products pipeline, or refill Gatun Lake. That is the story of September 2026: crude is still findable; diesel is not. The constraint has moved downstream, […]

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