If you live or work in the Lone Star State, you may be aware that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has revealed that power reserves were critically low in early May. More recently came the news that demand broke the state record a second time in a week, as prices soared on the Friday before Memorial Day weekend.
That wasn’t good news in a state that has struggled with supply issues during the past two years and has lately suffered through some well-documented weather events.
Power shortage warnings started in late April about the possibility of a situation that has been on the minds of ERCOT, energy executives and citizens of Texas ― a power shortfall on the state’s strained electric grid.
Bear in mind that some of the concerns were related to scheduled routine maintenance that typically takes place during the “shoulder” months (the spring and fall seasons when power usage is at its lowest level). ERCOT, which operates most of the state’s power grid for 27 million customers, would have factored for these power plant outages to strengthen supply for anticipated shortages but were unable to due to the unanticipated temperatures.
Grid conditions are already tight with power-plant outages remaining above the five-year average at more than 20,000 megawatts, said Adam Sinn, owner of power trading firm Aspire Commodities in a mid-May article that was published by Bloomberg. (One megawatt can power about 200 homes on a hot day and about 800 during more moderate weather.)
ERCOT issued notices because those outages meant the available thermal fleet consisting of nuclear, coal and natural gas plants was at approximately 75,000 megawatts. In such circumstances one can see the strain it can put on the system if and when renewables do not perform,” Sinn said.
The only other alternative, according to Sinn is to request that the public to reduce its power consumption. That’s a big ask, especially when available, inexpensive thermals theoretically can greatly boost capacity.
But consider this angle when contemplating the issue: here we are at another point where renewables are not in adequate supply to serve a market, a market that has experienced record heat in late May, more than once all before Memorial Day.
So, what can we anticipate prices spiking to later this summer? Weather trends (and related investment activity) are already indicating sky-high rates will prevail, all creating more personal hardships during these inflationary times.
Remember that a more than ample supply of inexpensive coal is available to help save a huge market for the looming hot Texas summer.
