Isaias had 110 mph winds at 7 a.m. CDT Friday, on the cusp of major-hurricane strength, and is expected to come ashore between Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle tonight or early Saturday. It has already shut in 62.9% of Gulf oil output. Here is what the next one to three weeks could mean at the pump, who gets hit first, and what investors are watching. We will be using this for Podcast Preparation on the Energy News Beat Stand Up for Later Today. 

In Pensacola on Wednesday, one Cumberland Farms sold more than 13,000 gallons of gas, roughly three times a normal day. By Thursday morning the store was out of propane and nearly out of ice, and a RaceWay nearby had run out of regular (Pensacola News Journal). In Talladega County, cotton farmer Jeremy Wilson was racing to pick a 100-acre field worth about $150,000 before the rain. “Once the cotton is on the ground, there’s nothing I can do with it,” he told ABC 33/40.

That is where Hurricane Isaias hits first: gas tanks, harvest budgets and trucking margins. It arrives with the U.S. average for diesel at $6.28 a gallon, about 25 cents below AAA’s Sept. 22 record, and regular gas at $4.37, up $1.26 from a year ago (AAA). This update follows our Oct. 7 report.

Where Isaias is now

As of NHC Intermediate Advisory 11A, 7 a.m. CDT Fri., Oct. 9 (forecast points from Advisory 11, 4 a.m.; Advisory 12 due 10 a.m. CDT)

At 7 a.m. CDT, NHC said Isaias was “on the cusp of major hurricane strength,” with 110 mph winds, a strong Category 2, and pressure down to 958 mb. It was about 245 miles south of Pensacola and 170 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving north-northeast at 15 mph (NHC Advisory 11A). It has not made landfall. NHC expects landfall “within the warning area tonight or early Saturday.” The Hurricane Warning runs from Ocean Springs, Miss., to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. NHC warns of up to 6 to 9 feet of storm surge between the Santa Rosa/Okaloosa County line and Grayton Beach, Fla., and 5 to 7 feet from Dauphin Island to there (NHC 11A).

Isaias “is likely to become a major hurricane this morning and remain a dangerous hurricane at landfall this evening or tonight,” NHC said at 7 a.m. (NHC 11A). NHC’s latest forecast points, from 4 a.m., peak at 120 mph about 1 p.m. today and put the center inland near the Alabama–Florida line by 1 a.m. Saturday (NHC Forecast/Advisory 11). Pensacola has a 99% chance of tropical-storm-force winds, Mobile 75%, Gulfport 15%. NHC also tells people to prepare for “long-duration power outages” (NHC; NHC). Chart 1 is the main picture for the aticle above: NHC forecast points from Advisories 3, 7 and 11 and the 7 a.m. Advisory 11A position, with Gulf Coast refineries sized by capacity. Not the official cone (NHC graphics). Sources: NHC; U.S. EIA; Bloomberg via Transport Topics

Offshore: nearly two-thirds of Gulf oil shut in

As of Oct. 8, 11 a.m. CDT (MMA); next update expected Friday afternoon, not yet posted at 6:55 a.m. CT

Operators had shut in 1,282,879 b/d of Gulf oil, 62.89% of output, plus 57.35% of gas, and evacuated 121 of 371 platforms (MMA). That is up from 25.08% a day earlier (MMA) and already above Michael (2018) or Sally (2020) (Chart 3). Chevron shut in five of its operated facilities and kept four producing (Chevron). Shell shut in Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito and Appomattox (Newsquawk). BP shut Na Kika and Thunder Horse (MarketScreener/Dow Jones).

Undamaged platforms usually restart within days (EIA), and GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan expects production to “resume significantly by early next week” (Transport Topics). Crude is not the tight spot. Fuel is.

2.7 million vs. 500,000: two definitions of “in the path”

As of company statements and reports through 3:15 p.m. EDT Thu., Oct. 8; no run cuts announced as of 6:55 a.m. CT, Fri., Oct. 9, 2026

In a CNN report Thursday, Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates said about 2.7 million b/d, or 14% of U.S. refining, was “within or near” the projected path. Lipow said he expects at least some refineries in the New Orleans/Baton Rouge and Mississippi/Alabama regions will have to slow down (CNN via ABC17). On Thursday afternoon, Bloomberg counted nearly 500,000 b/d “in or near” the path. That is Chevron’s 356,000 b/d Pascagoula plant on the western edge of the cone, Vertex’s 88,000 b/d Mobile-area plant “directly in the storm’s projected path,” and Hunt’s 50,000 b/d Tuscaloosa refinery (Transport Topics/Bloomberg).

Both can be right; they draw the line in different places. EIA data puts the three Bloomberg plants at 494,440 b/d, or 2.7% of U.S. capacity. A wider corridor of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama plants east of Lake Charles comes to about 2.59 million b/d, close to Lipow’s figure (ENB calculation; EIA; Chart 4). Argus said the track “would likely spare most of the refineries in Louisiana” (Argus).

What it could mean at the pump over the next 1–3 weeks

Retail prices: AAA, “Price as of 10/9/26.” Futures: settlements Thu., Oct. 8. Crude: Reuters, 3:19 a.m. CT Fri.

No forecaster ENB found has put a cents-per-gallon number on Isaias, and we won’t invent one. Wholesale moved first. November diesel futures (ULSD) settled at $4.8829 Thursday, up about 26 cents, while gasoline futures (RBOB) rose about 8 cents to $3.3160 (PFL; Sprague; ENB calculation). Crude eased overnight: Brent was $102.60 and WTI $90.18 at 3:19 a.m. CT, down about 1.5% after President Trump said there would be no attack on Iran before the midterms (Reuters via Global Banking & Finance). Pump averages barely moved overnight (AAA).

For the first week, the best-sourced view is a short squeeze. De Haan told NBC that flooded refineries “could take them offline for up to 10 days” (NBC). Even a Category 1 storm “can take a week to return refining operations to normal,” CNN reported (CNN). For weeks two and three, history is mixed. After Ivan hit near the Alabama–Florida line in 2004, U.S. diesel rose 17.9 cents and regular 9.2 cents over three weeks. After Michael in 2018 and Sally in 2020, national prices barely moved (ENB calculation from EIA weekly data; Appendix E). EIA’s 2023 study found a high-impact storm that cuts about 1.5 million b/d of both offshore output and refining could raise monthly gas prices 25 to 30 cents (EIA). Isaias has the offshore half of that, not yet the refinery half.

ENB’s read: if Pascagoula and the Mobile-area plant restart within a week, national diesel likely holds near current levels, with local outages and price jumps in the Panhandle and southern Alabama. If refineries flood or ports and power stay down, the 2004 diesel-led rise is the better guide, with the thinnest diesel cushion for early October in EIA records back to 1982 (Chart 6).

Florida and the Southeast: no refineries, few pipelines

Port status as of the Alabama Port Authority update, 9:29 a.m. CDT Thu., Oct. 8, and Coast Guard bulletins through Oct. 8

Florida “has no refineries or pipelines connecting the state to supply centers along the U.S. Gulf Coast,” EIA says. The Panhandle gets fuel by long-haul truck from a Colonial Pipeline terminal in Bainbridge, Ga. “The rest of western Florida is supplied by truck and barge via the Intracoastal Waterway from nearby refineries in Alabama and Mississippi” (EIA). Those are the plants nearest this storm. More than 45% of Florida’s petroleum flows through Port Tampa Bay (FOX 13). It is well east of the track, but FOX 13 reports the storm could still disrupt fuel shipments there (FOX 13).

The Coast Guard set Port Condition YANKEE at Mobile Thursday morning, and the Alabama Port Authority suspended vessel operations at its public berths at noon (Alabama Port Authority; Coast Guard MSIB 122-26). An earlier bulletin anticipated ZULU, a full closure, at 2 a.m. Friday. ENB has not confirmed that it was set (MSIB 121-26). Port Everglades was operating normally as of Oct. 7 (Moran). Gov. Ron DeSantis said state troopers are escorting fuel trucks and more than 6,000 linemen are standing by (Florida Governor’s Office). Florida regular averaged $4.15 and diesel $5.90 today (AAA). ENB found no Colonial Pipeline notice on Isaias.

Who gets hit

Prices as of 6:55 a.m. CT, Fri., Oct. 9, 2026

• Drivers and evacuees. At $4.37, a 15-gallon fill-up costs about $19 more than a year ago (AAA; ENB calculation). Evacuees may find stations along the coast already running short (PNJ).
• Every 100 gallons of diesel costs about $260 more than a year ago (AAA; ENB calculation). “The sharp increase in diesel cost has quickly eaten up what little margin mom-and-pop trucking businesses have left,” OOIDA’s Lewie Pugh told the Los Angeles Times.
• Farmers at harvest. Alabama farm diesel hit $5.42 in mid-September, nearly double the $2.73 many 2026 crop budgets assumed. Auburn economists estimate $247 million in extra harvest costs across 13 Southern states (Alabama Extension). Georgia has waived dyed-diesel penalties and suspended its motor fuel tax through Nov. 5 ( Kemp).
• Northeast heating-oil homes. The storm is far away; the market is not. East Coast distillate stocks are 29.8% below their five-year average, and U.S. residential heating oil averaged $6.04 on Oct. 5 (EIA; EIA). A Gulf diesel squeeze reaches that tank through futures and Colonial’s distillate line. See our heating-oil report.

How consumers and investors see it

Stock moves are Thursday, Oct. 8, closes

Consumers are not waiting. “I’ve never seen this many people here so early before,” Patrick Ruffin told the Pensacola News Journal. AAA said Isaias “could affect gas prices if oil production and refineries in the region are impacted” (AAA Newsroom).

Investors bet on refiners. On Thursday PBF rose 6.8%, Marathon Petroleum 4.8%, Valero 4.6%, Shell’s U.S. shares 3.5% and Chevron 3.1% (Exa market data; MPC; VLO; SHEL; CVX). ENB’s math puts Thursday’s diesel-to-Brent spread near $100 a barrel (Appendix B). Mizuho’s Robert Yawger called Isaias “the worst time something like this could happen in 25 years” and said a hit to U.S. refining “would basically force a diesel export ban” (CNN).

Corrections to early reports

As of 6:55 a.m. CT, Fri., Oct. 9, 2026

• Chevron: five facilities, not four. Chevron’s 3 p.m. CDT Thursday update says it shut in five operated facilities, not the four some reports carried (Chevron).
• “2.7 million b/d in the path” is a wide-corridor figure. On the current track, Bloomberg’s ~500,000 b/d is the better guide (CNN; Transport Topics).
• “Two to three weeks to restart after a Category 3” is not in CNN’s report, which says a Category 1 storm can take a week (CNN).
• Diesel futures rose about 26 cents Thursday, not 5 cents. One settlement sheet carried Wednesday’s change beside Thursday’s price (PFL; Sprague).

What to watch

• NHC’s Advisory 12 at 10 a.m. CDT: does Isaias reach Category 3 (NHC)?
• MMA’s Friday shut-in update, expected Friday afternoon (MMA).
• Coast Guard reopening of Mobile, Pascagoula and Pensacola, and any run cuts or restarts at Pascagoula and Saraland.
• Colonial Pipeline notices and next Wednesday’s EIA stock report.

A downloadable data file with the figures and chart data behind this article is available with this post.

Check out the World’s Greatest Podcast Show Notes at EnergyNewsBeat.co or EnergyNewsBeat.com. And subscribe to: The Energy News Beat Substack.

At Energy News Beat we Make Appendices Great Again. Times are U.S. Central (CDT) unless noted. Fast-moving items are current as of 6:55 a.m. CT, Fri., Oct. 9, 2026.

Appendix A. Sources (titled and dated)

Appendix B. Key figures

Appendix C. NHC advisory history (Isaias, AL092026)

Advisory 11A (7 a.m. CDT Oct. 9): no watch/warning changes; headline “ISAIAS ON THE CUSP OF MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH”; surge forecast raised to 6–9 ft between the Santa Rosa/Okaloosa County line and Grayton Beach (NHC). Watches and warnings: Advisory 4 (10 a.m. CDT Oct. 7) issued a Storm Surge Watch from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Yankeetown and a Hurricane Watch from Bay St. Louis to Indian Pass (NHC). Advisory 6 (10 p.m. CDT Oct. 7) upgraded to a Hurricane Warning from Ocean Springs, Miss., to the Bay/Gulf County line and a Storm Surge Warning to the Steinhatchee River (NHC). Advisory 8 extended the Storm Surge Warning to the Suwannee River. The 10:30 p.m. CDT Oct. 7 update announced that Isaias had become a hurricane. Full archive: NHC.

C-2. NHC forecast points, Advisories 3, 7 and 11

The forecast track moved only slightly between Advisories 3 and 11: the 1 a.m. Saturday point shifted from 87.7W to 87.1W, about 35 miles east (ENB calculation). The bigger shift came before Advisory 3, when Tuesday coverage had the storm headed toward Louisiana and Mississippi (see our Oct. 7 report).

Appendix D. Status of refineries, offshore, pipelines and ports

Appendix E. Historical comparisons

E-2. ENB calculation: U.S. weekly retail price change around landfall

Method: base is the last EIA weekly price on or before landfall; change is the highest of the next three weekly prices minus the base (a negative value means prices fell in all three weeks). Prices are nominal. Storms coincided with other market forces (Katrina/Rita together; Laura and Sally during the 2020 pandemic slump), so these are context, not forecasts. Source: EIA weekly series.

Appendix F. Data gaps, conflicting figures and briefing items that did not check out

• No sourced cents-per-gallon forecast for Isaias. AAA and GasBuddy gave none; EIA’s 25–30¢ figure is a 2023 scenario, not an Isaias forecast.
• “Two to three weeks after a Category 3”: not in CNN’s text; found only in an unattributed aggregator summary. Not used as fact.
• 7 million vs. ~500,000 b/d: different definitions and times (Appendix B). Lipow did not list plants; ENB’s 2.59 million b/d corridor is a reconstruction.
• Chevron four vs. five facilities: gCaptain and NBC reported four (Oct. 7 information); Chevron’s Oct. 8 3 p.m. update says five (Chevron).
• Settlement-sheet change column: one Oct. 8 report showed ULSD +5.33¢/RBOB −3.9¢, which are Oct. 7 changes. ENB computed Oct. 8 changes from prior settles. Intraday quotes differ: DTN had ULSD $4.8037 at 9 a.m. EDT; a separate market wrap had $4.875 near the close.
• Friday MMA shut-in report: not posted as of 6:55 a.m. CT, Fri., Oct. 9, 2026; expected Friday afternoon (OilPrice). Oct. 8 figures used, labeled as of 11 a.m. CDT Oct. 8.
• Port Condition ZULU at Mobile: anticipated for 2 a.m. Friday in a pre-decisional Coast Guard bulletin; not confirmed. Port Tampa Bay’s current condition not found.
• Colonial and Products (SE) pipelines: no Isaias notice found; Colonial’s news page blocked automated access.
• Vertex Saraland: EIA lists 88,000 b/cd of crude capacity, but its hydrocracker now runs on base oil; actual fuel output is unknown. Vertex has been private since early 2025.
• Stocks: Phillips 66 and BP U.S. closes not obtained; Thursday stock moves also reflected crude’s 4% rally and Iran headlines, not only the storm.
• Historical landfall dates for Ivan, Michael and Sally are standard NHC records not re-fetched for this piece.
• Wrong-year search results: several 2020 Hurricane Isaias port bulletins (Miami, Tampa, North Carolina) surface in searches; ENB excluded them.
• Thin evidence: station-level outage reports are anecdotal (one newspaper); farm-diesel figures are Alabama-specific; Shell’s status comes from a market-news headline.