Qatar Lost 12.8 Million Tons of LNG Capacity. Now It Is in Talks to Buy 3 Million Tons a Year From Venture Global

Qatar, long the world’s LNG heavyweight, is shopping for American gas. On Thursday, Oct. 22, Cheniere and QatarEnergy signed deals for 4 million tonnes per year (Mtpa) of U.S. LNG through 2054. Later that day, Reuters reported QatarEnergy is in advanced talks to buy at least 3 Mtpa from Venture Global (NYSE: VG) on a long-term basis (Reuters via Baird Maritime).

Some headlines have overstated the talks: there is no signed Venture Global deal. Neither company has issued a release or an SEC filing about Qatar, and Reuters did not report a start date, length or price. ZeroHedge reports the volume would come from VG’s CP2 project; that detail is not in the Reuters text and has not been confirmed by either company. Venture Global shares still jumped 9.3% to $14.00 on Oct. 23 (Yahoo Finance).

Why would Qatar buy American gas?

Because the war broke its export machine. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters on March 19 that Iranian attacks damaged two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains, sidelining 12.8 Mtpa, about 17% of export capacity, for three to five years (Reuters; CNBC; QNA). QatarEnergy, which had already declared force majeure, extended it to long-term contracts (QNA; Reuters), and Hormuz shipping disruption has made matters worse. Work on the giant North Field expansion was suspended in March (Offshore), and in September QatarEnergy said the Hormuz crisis may delay its expansion projects (Reuters).

To keep customers whole, QatarEnergy bought 33 U.S. spot cargoes this year, worth about $1 billion, for South Korea, Taiwan, Bangladesh, India and Japan. Some came directly from Venture Global and some from VG’s customers (Reuters via Baird Maritime). In September Reuters reported QatarEnergy was seeking U.S. supply deals through 2031 (Reuters). Kaabi framed the Cheniere deal as portfolio-building: the volumes will “complement QatarEnergy’s existing LNG supplies, enhance our supply and trading portfolio, and strengthen our ability to serve customers across the globe” (QNA).

The Cheniere deal is the template. It is 2 Mtpa from Sabine Pass and 2 Mtpa from Corpus Christi, sold free-on-board and priced off Henry Hub plus a fixed fee, with deliveries starting in the early 2030s (Cheniere; QatarEnergy says 2031, per QNA). One million tonnes depends on Cheniere taking a final investment decision on a Sabine Pass expansion (Cheniere).

VG is not the only option. On Friday, Oct. 23, Reuters reported QatarEnergy is also in talks to buy up to 3 Mtpa for 15 to 20 years from Woodside’s Louisiana LNG, a 16.5 Mtpa plant under construction. Woodside said it does not respond to market speculation. Reuters noted that VG and Louisiana LNG have the most uncommitted U.S. capacity, and that QatarEnergy already owns 70% of the 18 Mtpa Golden Pass LNG project (Reuters via BOE Report).

Sources: Reuters, Cheniere, Reuters via Baird Maritime, Reuters via BOE Report. Graphic: Energy News Beat.

The “selling gas twice” baggage

VG’s history with buyers is contentious. Its Calcasieu Pass terminal produced its first LNG in early 2022 but did not declare commercial operations until April 15, 2025. In the meantime it sold cargoes at sky-high spot prices instead of delivering to long-term buyers, who said they were cheated. VG says the plant was not finished and that it acted within its contracts (10-Q).

The tribunal scorecard is mixed. VG beat Shell, and a New York court refused to overturn that award on March 2 (Reuters). It beat Repsol in January (8-K). It settled with Edison in March, and the arbitration was formally ended in June (Reuters; 10-Q). But BP won on liability in October 2025, with damages to be set at a hearing in 2027, and BP has sought $3.7 billion to more than $6 billion (TopDisputes; 10-Q). On Oct. 7, a tribunal found partly for Galp, though it capped damages at $170 million (8-K). An Orlen award is still pending.

The $160 billion AI power play: what is real

ZeroHedge, citing Goldman, says VG’s data-center plan could mean roughly $160 billion of deployed capital (ZeroHedge). That figure is an analyst model, not a company number. What VG has actually filed: a frame agreement with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes for up to 16 power islands, delivered through 2034, with a first purchase order expected by end-2026 and reservations for eight more with purchase orders from early 2027, plus a GE grid frame deal (8-K). VG says each island is 720 MW (VG). If every option were exercised, the total would be about $17.2 billion (8-K; Baker Hughes). VG targets “up to 10GW of compute capacity by the end of 2034,” “subject to customer commitments” (VG). No data-center tenant has been announced.

What it means for your gas and power bills

Exporting more LNG does put upward pressure on U.S. gas, but so far i

t has been modest. U.S. LNG exports averaged 16.7 Bcf/d in July 2026 versus 14.1 a year earlier (EIA). Henry Hub averaged $2.95/MMBtu in September 2026, nearly flat with $2.97 a year earlier (EIA). EIA forecasts Henry Hub at $3.48 in 2026 and $3.16 in 2027, even as exports climb to 18.6 Bcf/d in 2027 (EIA STEO). Prices spiked in January because of weather, averaging $7.72 during Winter Storm Fern (EIA STEO).

Electric bills are rising anyway. The average residential price was 18.16 cents/kWh in August, up from 17.57 cents a year earlier (EIA), and EIA expects a 2026 average of 18.2 cents (EIA STEO). New Qatar contracts start in the 2030s, so they will not move this winter’s bill.

Sources: EIA Henry Hub, LNG exports, Electric Power Monthly. Graphic: Energy News Beat

What it means for investors

VG priced its IPO at $25 in January 2025 (VG). It hit a closing low of $5.92 in December 2025 and closed Oct. 23 at $14.00: down 44% from the IPO price but up about 105% this year (Yahoo Finance). The business throws off cash: Q2 revenue was $4.6 billion, net income to common shareholders $1.3 billion, and 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance is $8.7 to $9.1 billion (VG). But debt stood at about $42.4 billion at June 30, against $8.6 billion of VG Inc. stockholders’ equity, or $12.1 billion including noncontrolling interests (10-Q).

Analysts have turned more positive. Wells Fargo upgraded VG to Overweight on Oct. 20 with a $21 target (Investing.com), and Goldman rates it Buy at $18 (ZeroHedge). VG also signed a 20-year, 1 Mtpa deal with ConocoPhillips, starting in 2030, on Oct. 1 (VG). Q3 results are expected Nov. 10, per ZeroHedge.

Sources: Yahoo Finance, VG IPO release, VG 8-Ks. Graphic: Energy News Beat.

Caveats and criticism

The Qatar-VG talks rest on unnamed sources, and they could fail or shrink. Arbitration losses to BP and Galp could cost hundreds of millions to billions of dollars. The AI plan needs customers that do not yet exist, plus heavy capital spending on top of $42 billion of debt. Qatar’s own capacity should return within three to five years, which could leave it long on gas later. And critics of LNG exports argue that more export demand ties American household gas prices to global markets.

Stu’s Take

Think about this: Iranian missiles knocked out 12.8 Mtpa of Qatari capacity, and the customers did not go to Russia. They came to Louisiana and Texas, first through 33 spot cargoes, then through a signed 4 Mtpa Cheniere deal, and maybe 3+ Mtpa from Venture Global. That is American energy security doing its job.

But I will not cheerlead an unsigned deal. VG still faces a BP damages fight after losing on liability, it lost part of the Galp case, and it carries about $42.4 billion of debt. The $160 billion AI number is a Goldman model; the filed number is up to $17.2 billion of equipment with no tenant yet.

For families, the good news is that Henry Hub was $2.95 in September, even with exports running well above last year. Keep building pipelines and keep the Gulf Coast humming, and we can be the world’s gas station without breaking the bank at home.

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Appendix: Sources and Links

A. Key facts and data (as of Oct. 24, 2026)

Item	Value	As of	Source
Qatar LNG capacity knocked out	12.8 Mtpa (~17%), 3-5 years	Mar. 19, 2026	Reuters
Cheniere-QatarEnergy SPAs	4 Mtpa, FOB, HH + fixed fee, early 2030s (QE: 2031) to 2054	Oct. 22, 2026	Cheniere
VG-QatarEnergy	Talks, at least 3 Mtpa; not signed	Oct. 22, 2026	Reuters/Baird
Woodside Louisiana LNG-QatarEnergy	Talks, up to 3 Mtpa, 15-20 yrs; not signed	Oct. 23, 2026	Reuters/BOE Report
QE U.S. spot purchases	33 cargoes, ~$1B	Jul. 30, 2026	Reuters/Baird
VG close	$14.00 (+9.3%)	Oct. 23, 2026	Yahoo
VG IPO price	$25.00	Jan. 23, 2025	VG
VG all-time closing low	$5.92	Dec. 16, 2025	Yahoo
VG total debt / equity	$42.4B / $8.6B	Jun. 30, 2026	10-Q
VG 2026 adj. EBITDA guidance	$8.7-9.1B	Aug. 11, 2026	VG
Power islands (frame)	Up to 16 x 720 MW; ~$17.2B if all elected	Oct. 15, 2026	8-K
Henry Hub monthly	$2.95 (Sep. 2026) vs $2.97 (Sep. 2025)	Sep. 2026	EIA
Henry Hub daily	$3.10	Oct. 20, 2026	EIA
U.S. LNG exports	16.7 Bcf/d (Jul. 2026); 14.1 (Jul. 2025)	Jul. 2026	EIA
STEO Henry Hub forecast	$3.48 (2026), $3.16 (2027)	Oct. 6, 2026	EIA
Residential electricity	18.16 c/kWh (Aug. 2026) vs 17.57	Aug. 2026	EIA

B. Calcasieu Pass arbitration scorecard

Buyer	Outcome	Date	Source
Shell	VG won; NY court denied vacatur	Aug. 2025; Mar. 2, 2026	Reuters
BP	Liability found vs VG; damages hearing 2027; BP seeks $3.7B to >$6B	Oct. 2025	TopDisputes, 10-Q
Repsol	Claims denied in full	Jan. 21, 2026	8-K
Edison	Settled (extra cargoes); arbitration terminated	Mar. 26 / Jun. 2026	Reuters, 10-Q
Galp	Partial award vs VG; damages capped at $170M	Oct. 7, 2026	8-K
Orlen (PGNiG)	Pending	–	TopDisputes

C. Key excerpts

“The additional volumes will complement QatarEnergy’s existing LNG supplies, enhance our supply and trading portfolio, and strengthen our ability to serve customers across the globe.” – Saad al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy (QNA)

“QE bought the cargoes directly from US producer Venture Global LNG as well as picking up cargoes from some of Venture Global’s customers, the sources said.” (Reuters via Baird Maritime)

VG targets “up to 10GW of compute capacity by the end of 2034,” “subject to customer commitments.” (VG release)

D. Background

Venture Global operates Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines in Louisiana and is building CP2. Plaquemines Phase 1 COD is expected in 2026 and CP2 Phase 1 COD in 2029 (10-Q). QatarEnergy also owns 70% of Golden Pass LNG in Texas (Reuters/BOE Report). Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan began after the U.S.-Iran conflict started Feb. 28, 2026 (Offshore).

E. Methodology and what we could not verify

Every number in the article was checked against a company release, SEC filing, EIA dataset or Reuters report (directly or via syndication) on Oct. 24, 2026. VG prices are daily closes from Yahoo Finance. The LNG export series (EIA N9133US2, MMcf/month) was converted to Bcf/d by dividing by days in the month. NOT verified independently, so presented only as attributed or omitted: the ~$160B AI capital figure (Goldman via ZeroHedge); the CP2 sourcing of the Qatar volumes (ZeroHedge); Q3 results date (ZeroHedge); ZeroHedge’s Qatari export and revenue estimates; and any Qatar-VG price, tenor or start date (not reported).