Are we about to see paper catch up to physical delivery on oil?

The oil market is sending mixed signals that traders and energy watchers cannot ignore. Futures prices—the “paper” side of the trade—have been surprisingly restrained even as physical barrels face ongoing constraints from the prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel cracks are screaming tightness downstream, China has stepped back as the world’s swing buyer, […]

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So Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz, Let’s See What Bessent’s Economic Isolation of Iran Could Look Like

As the Iran-U.S. conflict grinds toward the six-month mark in mid-August 2026, Tehran continues to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz—the critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG once flowed—while the United States maintains a naval blockade on Iranian ports and escalates economic pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled […]

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Oil Supply Crunch Worsens Despite War’s Demand Hit, Says IEA

The International Energy Agency’s latest Oil Market Report underscores a deepening imbalance in global oil markets. Despite a sharper-than-expected contraction in demand driven by elevated prices from the ongoing Iran conflict and related disruptions, supply shortfalls have widened even more, producing the tightest near-term balances in years. At the time this article is written, Brent […]

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The Hormuz Crisis Has Permanently Changed the Economics and Importance of Energy Security

The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis—sparked by U.S.-Israeli operations against Iran beginning in late February and marked by Iranian attacks on shipping, assertions of control, U.S. naval responses and blockades, and sharply reduced tanker traffic—has delivered the largest oil supply disruption on record. At its peak, the effective closure or severe constriction of the waterway, […]

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Iran Rejects US Talks, and Trump is Showing Restraint

Iran has ruled out direct negotiations with the United States for now, citing repeated violations of a short-lived interim peace memorandum of understanding signed in June, while President Donald Trump has signaled a patient, restrained approach focused on economic pressure rather than immediate new military action. The standoff continues to leave the Strait of Hormuz—the […]

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