In a world where energy transitions are touted as the path to a sustainable future, natural gas is making a surprising comeback. Investors are piling into the sector, driven by soaring global demand and a shifting narrative around climate policies. At COP30 in Belém, Brazil, discussions emphasized methane reductions through targeted actions like the methane summit co-hosted by Brazil, China, and the UK, rather than outright demonizing fossil fuels. This pragmatic approach acknowledges natural gas as a cleaner alternative to coal, allowing for emissions tracking and responsible production— a far cry from earlier blanket condemnations of hydrocarbons.
Adding an interesting twist, major oil companies like BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Woodside are aggressively expanding their LNG and natural gas operations. Shell has declared LNG its “biggest contribution” to energy for the next decade, while BP is forecasting growth in oil and gas output, revising earlier peak demand predictions. ExxonMobil has pushed back against EU sustainability rules, threatening to halt gas sales, and Woodside anticipates a 50% surge in crude oil and natural gas sales by 2032. TotalEnergies recently lifted force majeure on its Mozambique LNG project, signaling renewed confidence.
These moves aren’t just about hedging bets; they’re a response to real-world economics and policy shifts.
As the Energy News Beat channel has astutely asked: Is this resurgence due to Bill Gates’ recent pivot away from climate “fearmongering,” or is it the cold reality of investors ditching underperforming renewables like wind, solar, and hydrogen? Gates, in a widely discussed October 2025 memo, argued that climate change won’t spell humanity’s demise and urged a focus on human welfare over pure emissions cuts. He called for prioritizing health, poverty reduction, and innovation, downplaying alarmist rhetoric that has dominated the discourse.
This stance has sparked backlash from environmentalists but resonates with investors tired of subsidizing intermittent energy sources that struggle with grid reliability.
Indeed, the poor returns from renewables are hard to ignore. Wind and solar projects often face high upfront costs, supply chain issues, and inconsistent output, leading to underwhelming financial performance. Hydrogen, hailed as a green miracle, remains economically unviable at scale without massive subsidies. Meanwhile, natural gas offers affordability, abundance, and the ability to provide baseload power—essential for energy-hungry applications like AI data centers, which are straining grids worldwide.
Global demand is projected to grow 6% annually over the next five years, with Europe setting LNG import records and gas-fired generation hitting highs not seen since 2019.
This investor sprint is backed by fundamentals.
The U.S. moratorium on new LNG exports under Biden has been challenged, and EU policies now emphasize low-emission gas rather than outright bans. As Gates’ memo suggests, a welfare-focused climate strategy allows room for natural gas as a bridge fuel, reducing coal dependency without sacrificing energy security.
To put this in perspective, let’s examine the last 10 years of natural gas production by country, based on data from the Energy Institute and other sources. Production has grown globally from around 3,500 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2014 to over 4,120 bcm in 2024, driven largely by U.S. shale innovations. Below is a breakdown for the top 10 producers, with figures for 2014 and 2023 (the latest full-year data), followed by projections for 2026. Projections incorporate IEA forecasts, such as 3% U.S. growth in 2025 and 2% in 2026 from a 2024 base of approximately 1,030 bcm, alongside expansions in Qatar and modest recoveries elsewhere.
|
Country
|
2014 Production (bcm)
|
2023 Production (bcm)
|
Projected 2026 Production (bcm)
|
Notes on Calculation
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
United States
|
728
|
1,035
|
1,103
|
Based on shale boom; IEA 3% growth in 2025 from 2024 (~1,030 bcm), 2% in 2026.
|
|
Russia
|
579
|
586
|
600
|
Stable but impacted by exports; modest 1-2% annual recovery per IEA medium-term outlook.
|
|
Iran
|
172
|
250
|
270
|
Steady domestic focus; ~2-3% annual growth from South Pars expansions.
|
|
China
|
131
|
217
|
250
|
89% growth 2014-2024; projected 5-7% annual to meet 230 bcm target by 2025, extending to 2026.
|
|
Qatar
|
177
|
178
|
220
|
North Field expansion; IEA forecasts ~45% total growth by 2030, averaging ~7% annually 2024-2026.
|
|
Canada
|
163
|
184
|
195
|
LNG export growth; 2-3% annual per regional trends.
|
|
Australia
|
66
|
148
|
155
|
Export-led; modest 1-2% growth amid feedgas constraints.
|
|
Norway
|
109
|
117
|
120
|
Stable European supply; 1% annual.
|
|
Saudi Arabia
|
103
|
114
|
130
|
Unconventional fields; ~4-5% annual to 40 bcm increase by 2030.
|
|
Algeria
|
83
|
101
|
105
|
Export focus; 1-2% growth.
|
Sources: Figures for 2014 and 2023 derived from Energy Institute and BP data trends; projections use IEA Gas 2025 growth rates applied to 2023/2024 bases. Global total projected at ~4,300 bcm by 2026.
These numbers highlight the U.S. dominance, with production surging over 40% in a decade thanks to fracking. Russia’s output dipped due to geopolitical tensions, while Qatar and Saudi Arabia gear up for major expansions.
Investors see this trajectory as a safe bet, especially as renewables falter to deliver consistent returns.
In conclusion, the rush back to natural gas isn’t just hype—it’s grounded in demand realities, policy pragmatism at COP30, and a reevaluation of climate narratives, as echoed by Gates. Whether it’s his influence or the simple math of ROI, one thing is clear: natural gas is here to stay, powering the world through its transitional phase. Stay tuned to Energy News Beat for more insights on where energy investments are heading next.
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