CHINA COMPETITION.
US efforts to electrify transportation are faltering because electric vehicles (EVs) are expensive, US electric power generation and distribution are inadequate, and needed materials must be imported. China’s BYD sells more EVs than Tesla, and its new Seagull costs less than $11,000. China controls the supply of rare earth elements necessary for magnets in electric motors. EV battery production relies on lithium, nickel, and cobalt not supplied from the US. China is already the world’s largest auto exporter. Attempting to catch up to China on transportation electrification will require decades of permitting, mining, industrial development, and money measured in trillions.
CHANGING THE GAME. We can change the competition from vehicle electrification to producing zero-emission diesel fuel made from CO2, water, and nuclear energy. The US can leverage its expertise in petroleum refining and chemical engineering. For example, the US petrochemical industry developed fracking and rapidly became the world’s largest exporter of liquified natural gas. Diesel fuel now powers 90% of freight transport. No matter the future of EVs, the US and the world will continue to depend on diesel-like fuels for trucking, mining, shipping, rail transport, and air flight, because batteries weigh fifty times more than fuel for the same energy.
HYDROGEN FUEL. Many world leaders and scientists want to reduce CO2 emissions from burning fuels. Hydrogen can be produced by electrolysis of water, with no CO2 emissions, using electricity generated from hydro, wind, solar, or nuclear power. Hydrogen can be a vehicle fuel, but it is very difficult and expensive to store and distribute, as Nikola now experiences in its trucking venture. However hydrogen has a key role in synthesizing diesel fuel.
SYNFUELS. Today’s petroleum fuels are molecular chains of hydrogen and carbon. Under historical sanctions Germany and South Africa synthesized coal-to-liquid fuels. Burning them released CO2, as did the synfuel production processes. Today, with a carbon source from CO2 rather than coal, net emissions can be zero. Burning hydrocarbon synfuels will re-use and preserve the world’s existing multi-trillion-dollar assets of diesel, gasoline, and turbine engines and networks of fuel tankers, pipelines, and filling stations.
BIOFUELS. When derived from sugar and corn crops, synfuels do emit CO2 when burned, but growing the crops absorbs CO2 from the air, so net emissions are zero, if the refining process itself is similarly powered. But growing biofuel feedstock diverts farmland from food production; converting the world to burn biodiesel would use about half of all agricultural land. US experience with ethanol in gasoline raised did not reduce vehicle CO2 emissions, and mandated cellulosic ethanol production only reached 0.1% of the objectives.
CO2 REUSE. The US petrochemical industry is capable of building refineries to use hydrogen and carbon from CO2 to synthesize hydrocarbon fuels. Coal and natural gas power plants now emit CO2, but potentially are ready sources. NRG’s Petra Nova coal-fired plant captured some CO2 from flue gas, but the billion-dollar effort to use CO2 to push up more crude in an oilfield 81 miles away was uneconomic. New, Allam cycle power plants burn natural gas with oxygen rather than air, so produce a exhaust stream of pure CO2. Reusing such pre-emission CO2 sources to make synfuels means that burning the synfuels adds no more CO2 to the atmosphere. However, in the distant future we may have no coal or methane fired power plants, so CO2 reuse is an interim solution.
CO2 CAPTURE. Direct air capture of CO2 emissions is expensive because CO2 is only 0.04% of air. Over a third of emissions are absorbed by ocean water, where CO2 is 150 times more concentrated. US Navy Research Lab demonstrated removing CO2 from seawater and making jet fuel, using electricity potentially generated from nuclear power plants on an aircraft carrier. The Navy lab estimated synfuel costs would be $5 per gallon. Bosch estimated CO2-sourced synfuel costs at $4 to $6 per gallon, and lifetime costs of a synfueled hybrid auto cheaper than a long-range EV.
NUCLEAR DIESEL. Advancing the game further, new nuclear technology can provide high temperature heat via 550°C steam or 750°C helium. Wind or solar energy sources can not. Dow is the first US company to embrace this nuclear heat potential, initially to reduce their own CO2 emissions. US petrochemical companies and engineers have the expertise to use the high-temperature heat and reliable electric power to build synfuel refineries. Advanced nuclear source energy costs can be 3.5 cents/kWh for electricity or 2 cents/kWh for high-temperature heat. This raw, source energy input cost to manufacture nuclear diesel is less than $1 per gallon. Even after adding new refinery capital costs and operations costs I expect new refineries could produce nuclear diesel at current wholesale prices near $3 per gallon.
REGULATORY BARRIERS. Cheap, reliable, ample nuclear power is critical to economic production of hydrocarbon synfuels. To win this competition with China the US must quickly permit industry to mine, refine, and enrich uranium and build power plants. NRC, EPA, and other bureaucracies must step away from their self-perceived roles as safety guardians with no regard for economic and social costs. Accidental radiation releases are much lesser hazards than the chemicals and fuels the petrochemical industry already manages daily. Perhaps these companies simply need authority to install nuclear heat and power sources under the safety regulations already in force at industrial and refinery sites. Changing the game requires fixing the rules.
Dr. Hargraves teaches energy policy at Dartmouth’s Osher Lifelong Learning Institute and is a co-founder of ThorCon International, a nuclear engineering company.
