The Russian Arctic LNG 2 project, a flagship liquefied natural gas (LNG) initiative operated by Novatek on the Gydan Peninsula, appears to be pushing forward despite heavy Western sanctions. Recent vessel-tracking data indicates that loadings may have resumed, signaling Moscow’s determination to revive exports from the sanctioned facility. This development comes amid broader geopolitical tensions, including potential new sanctions under a Trump administration, and raises questions about the expansion of Russia’s “dark fleet” to include LNG tankers for evading restrictions.
Background on Arctic LNG 2 and Sanctions
Launched with ambitions to become one of the world’s largest LNG producers, the Arctic LNG 2 project consists of three trains with a total capacity of 19.8 million tons per year. However, U.S. and EU sanctions imposed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have severely hampered operations. These measures target entities involved in the project, including vessels and companies, deterring international buyers and freezing the startup of commercial exports.
The first train began limited loadings in August 2024, but subsequent cargoes struggled to find buyers, with one sanctioned carrier reportedly wandering for four months without offloading.
By October 2024, the facility was temporarily shut down for commercial reasons, though production continued at record levels by late June 2025. Sanctions have not only isolated the project but also complicated logistics. Western restrictions, including the G7’s price cap on Russian energy exports, aim to curb Russia’s revenue streams funding its war efforts. Despite this, Novatek has commissioned the second train and delivered final modules from China, highlighting the challenges in fully enforcing sanctions. Evidence of Resumed LoadingsRecent activity suggests a potential restart. On July 17, 2025, the sanctioned LNG tanker Voskhod, managed by a Moscow-based company, arrived at the Arctic LNG 2 site unloaded, according to Kpler and MarineTraffic data. This marks the second such vessel in two months, following the Iris in June, which also appeared headed for loading.
While it’s unclear if Voskhod actually loaded cargo, the movement aligns with reports of resumed operations after an eight-month pause.
Satellite imagery from March and April 2025 showed progress on Trains 1 and 2, and by late June, output hit record highs as loadings reportedly restarted.
Analysts point to eight shadow fleet shipments loaded last summer, though most failed to secure buyers due to sanctions. These developments indicate Russia’s adaptive strategies, including using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for shipments. Implications Amid Potential New Sanctions from President TrumpThis apparent resumption could face fresh headwinds under President Trump’s proposed policies. Trump has threatened 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if the Russia-Ukraine war does not end within 50 days, extending penalties to third-party nations like China and India that help evade sanctions by importing discounted Russian energy.
These tariffs could disrupt 1.5–2 million barrels per day of Russian oil supply, potentially spiking Brent crude prices to $90–$100 per barrel by mid-2025 and affecting LNG markets similarly.
For Arctic LNG 2, such measures would intensify pressure on buyers and transporters. Trump’s plan includes bolstering Ukraine with weapons funded by NATO allies, aiming for energy independence via a “Drill Baby Drill” agenda.
If implemented, these tariffs could deter shadow fleet operations and force Russia to seek alternative markets, exacerbating the EU’s upcoming ban on Russian LNG transshipments in March 2025.
Analysts warn of higher global energy costs, including for U.S. consumers, as supply chains tighten.
Expansion of the Dark Fleet to LNG Tankers
Russia’s “dark fleet”—a network of aging, opaque vessels used to circumvent oil sanctions— is indeed expanding into LNG operations, including ship-to-ship (STS) transfers to avoid detection. Initially focused on oil since the 2022 G7 price cap, the fleet now includes LNG carriers, with the U.S. sanctioning seven such vessels in August 2024 for links to Arctic LNG 2.
In August 2024, Russia conducted its first apparent STS LNG transfer, marking a significant escalation.
The LNG shadow fleet is expected to grow amid clandestine activities, using flags of convenience, intricate ownership, and NSR routes to evade sanctions. This expansion poses environmental and safety risks, as shadow vessels often lack proper insurance and maintenance. Recent U.S. actions targeted dozens of oil-carrying shadow vessels, but LNG inclusion signals broader enforcement. Despite these tactics, the fleet’s resilience is waning, with capacity down 46% due to 2025 sanctions, potentially limiting Russia’s evasion capabilities. For Arctic LNG 2, this means relying on a growing but vulnerable network to sustain exports.
Conclusion
The possible resumption of loadings at Arctic LNG 2 underscores Russia’s resourcefulness in navigating sanctions, but it also highlights vulnerabilities amid escalating geopolitical pressures. With Trump’s tariff threats looming, and the dark fleet’s expansion into LNG raising new risks, the global energy landscape remains volatile. Stakeholders in the oil and gas industry should closely monitor these developments, as they could significantly reshape supply dynamics and prices in the coming months.
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