U.S. auto sales rose more than expected in the first quarter of 2023 on the back of rising vehicle inventories and fleet sales, offsetting elevated prices and high auto loan rates.
General Motors (GM) on Monday reported stronger-than-expected Q1 sales. Toyota Motor (TM) and Stellantis (STLA) each posted a less-than-feared Q1 sales decline, while Honda (HMC) delivered a surprise gain.
But Ford (F) on Tuesday fell slightly short of views, though its Q1 sales grew 10%.
Tesla (TSLA) reported record global EV deliveries this past weekend.
The U.S. industry Q1 sales pace is expected to reach an “unexpectedly strong” 15 million units, an increase of more than 6% vs. 14.1 million units in the year-ago quarter, Cox Automotive said.
As expected, GM was the top seller for the quarter.
Tesla, which lowered prices in Q1 to fuel demand, is set to be the top luxury seller, though its Model S and X sales weakened. Its sales are likely to be more than double that of BMW (BMWYY) or Mercedes (DDAIF). In fact, Tesla’s U.S. market share is seen surpassing 5% for the first time.
Here is how automakers performed in Q1 vs. the expectations of analysts at Cox Automotive. The results show auto sales volume, as well as sales growth or decline vs. a year ago.
General Motors
Q1 sales estimate: 587,020 vehicles, up 15.3% vs. Q1 2022 but down 5.1% vs. Q4 2022.
Results: General Motors sold 603,208 vehicles in Q1, a 17.6% increase vs. the year-ago quarter. Retail sales increased 15% and fleet sales jumped 27%.
GM estimated that its market share grew by 1.5 points, the most of any automaker during the quarter.
“Pricing was strong, inventories are in very good shape, and we sold more than 20,000 EVs in a quarter for the first time,” Steve Carlisle, GM executive vice president, said in the sales release Monday.
Most of those EV sales consisted of older-gen Bolt models. Among new-gen EVs, GM sold two Hummer EV trucks, a sharp drop from 72 in the prior quarter. It also sold 968 Lyriq SUVs, a big jump from 86 in the previous quarter.
GM stock fell 0.4% in early Wednesday stock market action. Shares remain below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Ford
Q1 sales estimate: 477,755 vehicles, up 11.3% vs. a year ago.
Results: 475,906, up 10.1% vs. a year ago. Sales grew across Ford’s SUVs (0.7%), trucks (19.6%), and cars (5.1%). Ford’s Q1 EV sales jumped 41% to 10,866 units. That was powered by big year-over-year increases for the F-150 Lightning truck and E-Transit van. But sales of its Mustang Mach-E crossover fell nearly 20% during the quarter, amid a factory retooling in Mexico to boost production capacity.
Ford stock eased 0.6% in Wednesday’s premarket action.
Toyota Motor
Q1 sales estimate: 464,530 vehicles, down 9.7% vs. a year ago.
Results: Toyota sold 469,558 vehicles in Q1, down 8.8%. All-electric vehicles and hybrid-electric vehicles made up a quarter of Q1 sales, the company sid.
Toyota Motor stock retreated 0.2% early Wednesday.
Stellantis
Q1 sales estimate: 359,830 vehicles, down 11.2% vs. a year ago.
Results: Stellantis sold 368,237 in Q1, down 9%.
Stellantis stock shed 1.3% early Wednesday. Shares are forming a cup-with-handle base with an 18.96 buy point, after finding support at the 50-day line.
Honda
Q1 sales estimate: 265,880 vehicles, down 0.2%.
Results: Honda sold 284,507 vehicles in Q1, a 6.8% increase. The quarter was capped by a strong March, which saw sales increase 8% to 116,746 units.
Honda touted record sales of its hybrid-electric Honda CR-V and Accord models. It also said strong inventory drove the “best first quarter in two years.”
Honda stock gained 0.4% early Wednesday, extending a five-session rally.
Tesla
Q1 U.S. sales estimate: 180,993 vehicles, up 39.5%
Tesla reported global quarterly deliveries. The EV giant does not break down sales by country.
Its Q1 deliveries rose 36% vs. a year earlier to a record 422,875, helped by price cuts. But Wall Street was expecting around 431,000 Tesla deliveries, according to FactSet.
Q1 deliveries included 412,180 Model 3 and Model Y EVs, plus 10,695 Model S and Model X vehicles.
TSLA stock dropped 0.5% early Wednesday, back below a 200.76 buy point. It jumped nearly 9% to 207.46 last week, breaking out past a cup-with-handle base on Friday.
2023 U.S. Auto Sales
After a strong start to the year, Cox has hiked its full-year new-vehicle sales forecast to 14.2 million. That is up more than 3% from 2022.
But the firm’s analysts warned that Q1’s “upside surprise” won’t last.
“We continue to believe supply constraints and affordability issues will put a ceiling on what’s possible in the year ahead,” said Cox Auto Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke.
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