The U.S. energy sector continues to face headwinds as the latest data from Baker Hughes reveals another decline in the national rig count. As of July 25, 2025, the total U.S. rig count stands at 542, down by 2 from the previous week and a significant 47 rigs lower than the same period last year.
This marks the latest in a series of drops, raising questions about the sustainability of shale production amid fluctuating oil prices, economic uncertainties, and shifting global demand. But is shale truly on the ropes, or are efficiency gains keeping the industry afloat? Let’s dive into the details, including rig counts by basin, breakdowns between oil and gas, a summary of production levels, and a look at the global picture.U.S. Rig Count Overview: Oil vs. Gas BreakdownThe recent drop in the U.S. rig count is primarily driven by a reduction in oil-directed rigs, partially offset by gains in gas rigs.
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According to the data:
Total Rigs: 542 (down 2 week-over-week, down 47 year-over-year)
Oil Rigs: 415 (down 7 week-over-week)
Gas Rigs: 122 (up 5 week-over-week)
Miscellaneous Rigs: 5 (unchanged week-over-week)
This shift highlights a divergence in the sector: oil rigs are bearing the brunt of the downturn, likely influenced by softer crude prices hovering around $70-80 per barrel in recent months, while gas rigs see modest growth amid steady domestic demand and export opportunities.
The oil rig count, in particular, has hit levels not seen consistently since late 2021, signaling caution among producers.Rig Count by Basin: Focus on Shale PlaysShale basins dominate U.S. drilling activity, and the latest figures show mixed trends across key regions. The Permian Basin, the powerhouse of U.S. shale, experienced the largest decline, but other areas like the DJ-Niobrara and Marcellus saw slight upticks. Unfortunately, basin-specific breakdowns between oil and gas rigs are not detailed in the latest reports, but historical patterns indicate that basins like the Permian and Eagle Ford are predominantly oil-focused, while the Haynesville and Marcellus lean heavily toward natural gas.
Here’s a breakdown of rig counts in major shale basins as of July 25, 2025:
|
Basin
|
Rig Count
|
Change (Week-over-Week)
|
|---|---|---|
|
Permian
|
260
|
-3
|
|
Eagle Ford
|
39
|
-2
|
|
Haynesville
|
41
|
0
|
|
Williston (Bakken)
|
31
|
0
|
|
DJ-Niobrara
|
9
|
+1
|
|
Marcellus
|
24
|
+1
|
|
Utica
|
12
|
0
|
|
Cana Woodford
|
17
|
0
|
|
Granite Wash
|
13
|
0
|
|
Barnett
|
2
|
0
|
|
Mississippian
|
1
|
0
|
|
Ardmore Woodford
|
1
|
0
|
|
Arkoma Woodford
|
0
|
0
|
The Permian, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. rigs, saw the most significant drop, reflecting broader cutbacks in oil drilling. In contrast, gas-heavy basins like the Haynesville held steady, underscoring resilience in the natural gas segment. These shale plays are critical, as they produce the majority of U.S. hydrocarbons, but the ongoing rig reductions could signal slower growth if trends persist.
Summary of U.S. Oil and Gas Production
Despite the declining rig count, U.S. oil and gas production remains robust, thanks to technological advancements, longer laterals, and higher well productivity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, up approximately 500,000 b/d from 2024 levels, driven largely by shale regions.
Natural gas production is also expected to grow, with dry gas output reaching new highs amid strong export demand.
Key shale region production highlights (projected averages for 2025, based on EIA forecasts):
Oil Production (thousand b/d):Permian: ~6.6 million b/d (up ~320,000 b/d from 2024, accounting for ~45% of U.S. total)
Eagle Ford: ~1.15 million b/d (up ~50,000 b/d from 2024)
Bakken (Williston): ~1.32 million b/d (up ~40,000 b/d from 2024)
Other shale regions (e.g., Niobrara, Anadarko): Contribute to the remaining ~20-25% of U.S. shale oil
Natural Gas Production (Bcf/d):Appalachia (Marcellus + Utica): ~34.7 Bcf/d (slight decline but still ~30% of U.S. total)
Haynesville: 15-16 Bcf/d (14% of U.S. total)
Permian (associated gas): ~25.5 Bcf/d (up ~1.8 Bcf/d from 2024)
Overall U.S.-marketed natural gas: Projected to exceed 105 Bcf/d, with shale accounting for over 80%
These figures demonstrate that even with fewer rigs, production is holding steady or growing due to improved efficiency—new wells in the Permian, for instance, are yielding over 400,000 b/d in their first month.
However, sustained low rig activity could cap future upside if drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells are depleted without new drilling.
Global Rig Count Difference: U.S. Lags Behind International Trends
On a global scale, rig activity presents a contrasting picture. While the U.S. rig count continues to slide, international rig counts have shown some resilience. As of June 2025 (the latest monthly data available), the international rig count stood at 913, up 27 from May but down 44 from June 2024.
Combining this with North American figures (U.S. ~542 and Canada ~172 as of mid-July), the approximate global total hovers around 1,627 rigs—down modestly year-over-year but with regional variations.The key difference: Global rig counts are buoyed by activity in the Middle East and Latin America, where state-backed oil companies maintain steady drilling despite price volatility. In contrast, U.S. shale operators, often publicly traded and sensitive to shareholder returns, are quicker to pull back. This divergence underscores the U.S.’s vulnerability to short-term market swings, while global production—led by OPEC+—remains more stable.
Is Shale on the Ropes?
The repeated drops in the U.S. rig count paint a cautious picture for shale, particularly in oil-heavy basins like the Permian and Eagle Ford. With oil rigs down significantly and total activity at multi-year lows, some analysts warn of potential production plateaus if prices don’t rebound. Yet, shale isn’t down for the count. Record productivity per rig and strong export markets for both oil and gas are keeping output elevated, with projections pointing to continued growth through 2025.
The industry is adapting—focusing on efficiency over expansion—but sustained low rig counts could test resilience if global demand weakens further. For now, shale remains a cornerstone of U.S. energy independence, but operators must navigate these ropes carefully to avoid a knockout blow.
This article is based on the latest available data from Baker Hughes and the EIA as of July 25, 2025. Energy markets are dynamic; check official sources for updates.
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