There is an old lesson of warfare that says “never believe your own propaganda.”
After the initial Russian strikes against Ukraine’s power grids and infrastructure the general narrative was that Russian cruise missiles and drones were ineffective, inaccurate and that the country’s utilities would be back up and running in no time. The message was reticent of previous propaganda out of Ukraine which requires constant theatrics of impending victory. As long as they act as if they are winning, billions in NATO dollars will continue to flow.
Russian tactics were decidedly restrained in the early months of the conflict, with the Kremlin mostly avoiding precision attacks on vital resources, including power, water and internet. This is a departure from traditional military doctrine, which the US followed when it invaded Iraq and decimated vast segments of their grid utilities at the onset of the war.
The Russian pull-back to lines in the Donbas region was a clear indication that their strategy was about to change and that wider strikes were inevitable.
Now, Ukraine’s grid amenities are being systematically destroyed, and it is reported that Ukrainians in major cities like Kyiv are lining up for blocks daily just to fill a few meager jugs with fresh water at city well pumps.
The lack of access to utilities changes the dynamics of the war drastically.
With winter looming, millions of civilians will face cold months without electric heat, light or easy access to water and food.
The predictable end result of this will likely be a flood of refugees into Europe.
