Weekly Rig Report: Baker Hughes Flat at 588, WellDatabase at 601 After a North Dakota Reclass, Enverus Still Running Higher

Baker Hughes remains the industry’s long-running Friday rotary benchmark. Enverus captures a larger share of the working fleet in near real time. WellDatabase is the most useful for operator, county, basin, well type, wellbore, and depth cuts — which is why the North Dakota print this week needs a footnote, not a panic.

Basins and states: Permian still the floor

Baker Hughes basins this week: Permian 268 (+1), Eagle Ford 50 (flat), Haynesville 56 (−1), Cana Woodford 21 (+1), DJ-Niobrara 11 (+1), Williston 27 (flat), Marcellus 23 (−1), Utica 10 (flat).

WellDatabase basins: Permian 267 (flat, +12 year over year), Haynesville 57 (flat, +18 YoY), Eagle Ford 50 (flat, +11 YoY), Williston 40 (−30), Other 100 (+2), Marcellus 24 (flat), Cana Woodford 20 (flat), Granite Wash 19 (flat), DJ-Niobrara 10 (−1), Utica 10 (−1).WellDatabase states: Texas 282 (+1, +41 YoY to 241 last year), New Mexico 95 (−1), Oklahoma 51 (flat, +8 YoY), North Dakota 37 (−30), Louisiana 36 (+1), Pennsylvania 16 (flat), Wyoming 15 (+1), Utah 13, Alaska 12, Colorado 12 (−1).

The Permian is not running away from the field, but it is not giving ground either. Gas basins have done more of the year-over-year work — Haynesville especially — as data-center power and LNG keep a bid under gas-directed drilling even when oil prices whip around.

Companies: XTO added, Continental trimmed, “Unknown” still large

Here is the Basin breakout.

WellDatabase’s top operators this week:

Unknown — 31 (−1)
Continental Resources — 24 (−2)
Pioneer Natural Resources — 18 (flat; −9 year over year)
Diamondback Energy — 17 (−1)
EOG Resources — 17 (−1)
Permian Resources Operating — 15 (flat)
XTO Energy — 14 (+2, the clearest named weekly add)
Apex Natural Gas — 12 (−1)
Oxy — 12 (−1)
Upland Operating — 11 (flat; +11 year over year from zero)

The named weekly movers are modest. XTO is the standout adder. Continental, Diamondback, EOG, Apex, and Oxy each gave back a rig or two. Pioneer is unchanged this week but down sharply versus last year. Upland’s year-over-year jump from zero to 11 is the biggest percentage story in the top 10. The “Unknown” bucket at 31 is still large enough that some of the state-level noise may live there.

None of the top-10 operator moves explain a 30-rig Williston collapse. That is another reason to treat this week’s WellDatabase North Dakota line as a data event first.SPR and Cushing: the reserve is still draining; the hub has bounced off the floor

The latest EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (week ending Aug. 28, released Sept. 2) is the inventory tape that sits under this rig report.SPR: 286.6 million barrels, down 3.1 million on the week. That is about 40% of the 714-million-barrel design capacity and more than 117 million barrels below year-ago levels. Draws have been persistent through the summer after the large 2026 release program tied to Middle East supply disruptions. The reserve is in the same neighborhood as early-1980s lows.

Cushing, Okla.: 22.51 million barrels, up about 80,000 on the week. That is a recovery from the July dip near 18.6 million, when the hub was flirting with what traders treat as operational tank bottoms (often cited around 20 million barrels). Utilization is still only about 30% of shell capacity. Tight, not empty.

U.S. commercial crude (ex-SPR): 424.5 million barrels, a 4.5-million-barrel draw — much larger than the ~0.3 million consensus. Refinery utilization printed near 98%. U.S. crude production was reported around 13.86 million barrels a day.

The combination is unusual: emergency stocks still falling, the WTI delivery hub off the worst of the summer squeeze but not rebuilt, commercial crude drawing while refineries run hard. That is a tight physical market even when the paper market is chopping.

Oil prices and what analysts are saying

WTI spent this week in the high $80s to low $90s. Futures traded as high as about $93 early in the week and were back near $89–$91 on Friday as the rig numbers hit. Brent has been in a similar band. The tape is still carrying a geopolitical risk premium around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, even after earlier reopenings and ceasefire headlines.

The analyst book is split between “the worst of the supply shock is fading” and “inventories are too tight to get comfortable.”EIA’s August Short-Term Energy Outlook had Brent averaging about $85 in 3Q26 and $78 in 4Q26 as Hormuz flows normalize and shut-in barrels return, then lower again into 2027. That outlook also has U.S. crude production rising from a 2025 record near 13.6 million b/d toward 13.8 million b/d in 2026.

A Reuters poll earlier in the summer cut 2026 averages after Hormuz traffic improved (Brent ~$84.50, WTI ~$79.50 for the full year at that snapshot). Several banks, including Goldman, have marked Q4 forecasts down into the $70s–$80s on a base case that the strait stays open — while keeping a much higher tail if hostilities resume.

Technical desks this week were watching a hold above roughly $87–$90 and a clean break of the $92 area as the next bull trigger, with $94 cited as a measured-move target if the short-term uptrend extends.

The rig count is consistent with that messy middle: operators are not launching a 2022-style boom, and they are not abandoning the Permian. They are adding oil rigs in ones and twos on Baker Hughes, holding gas activity better than the last cycle, and letting efficiency (longer laterals, higher horizontal share) do more of the production work than raw rig additions.

Bottom line

Baker Hughes is the clean weekly print: 588, unchanged, oil +2, Permian +1. WellDatabase is higher at 601 and still up year over year, but this week’s −30 is a Williston/classification story, not a Bakken exodus. Enverus continues to show a busier field than either weekly census.

Stack that against an SPR at 286.6 million barrels and still drawing, Cushing only just above the summer low, a 4.5-million-barrel commercial crude draw, and WTI hanging around $90 with Iran risk still in the option surface. Drilling is disciplined. The inventory cushion is not.

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