In the ever-volatile world of oil markets, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance has recently challenged the prevailing narratives of an impending oil surplus. Speaking at a recent industry event, Lance questioned the notion of a glut, emphasizing that global oil demand continues to grow steadily.
He argued that the market is tighter than current sentiment suggests, pointing out that the key challenge lies in sourcing conventional oil supplies in the coming years.
Lance’s optimistic outlook includes a prediction that oil prices could rebound to the $70-75 per barrel range as the market rebalances from any short-term surplus.
These comments, made in mid-October 2025, align with a broader pushback from oil executives against bearish forecasts, highlighting a disconnect between market perceptions and underlying fundamentals.
Lance’s Latest Statements: A Call for Realism in Oil Supply Projections
Ryan Lance’s remarks come amid a backdrop of fluctuating prices and revised production forecasts. He has warned that sustained low prices in the $60s could trigger industry-wide output cuts, potentially plateauing U.S. shale production if current ranges persist.
This echoes his earlier May 2025 statements, where he noted that U.S. shale would flatten out under prolonged sub-optimal pricing.
Lance’s focus on demand growth underscores his belief that the oil market’s tightness is underappreciated, with potential for a shift from surplus to deficit in the medium term.
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His views resonate with other industry leaders who see robust demand offsetting supply increases, challenging predictions of oversupply.
Market Consensus on Oil Demand: A Tale of Two Perspectives
The general market consensus on oil demand for 2025 and beyond is divided, reflecting a tug-of-war between optimistic and cautious outlooks. On one side, organizations like the International Energy Agency (IEA) project a significant global oil oversupply, with demand growth slowing to around 700,000 barrels per day (b/d) in both 2025 and 2026.
The IEA has hiked its supply growth forecasts, anticipating world oil supply to rise by 3 million b/d to 106.1 million b/d in 2025, leading to a “huge oversupply” that could pressure prices downward.
Similarly, J.P. Morgan Research forecasts Brent crude averaging $66 per barrel in 2025, dropping to $58 in 2026, driven by supply-demand imbalances and trade frictions.
Conversely, OPEC maintains a bullish stance, doubling down on expectations of strong oil demand growth for decades, arguing that the industry requires more investment to meet rising needs.
Oil executives, including those from major firms, echo this by predicting a market rebalancing from surplus to tightness in the medium to long term.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) aligns somewhat with this, forecasting global liquid fuels production to increase by 2.7 million b/d in 2025, while U.S. crude output averages 13.5 million b/d.
Recent data also shows record U.S. production meeting robust refinery demand, suggesting underlying strength despite glut fears.
This split highlights how bearish views from agencies like the IEA contrast with the more resilient demand projections from producers and OPEC.
Echoes from Energy News Beat: A Bullish Long-Term View
The team at Energy News Beat (energynewsbeat.co) has been vocal on this topic, often questioning the hype around an oil glut in their coverage. In articles like “Why Crude Refuses to Crash Despite Glut Predictions,” they argue that forecasts of oversupply frequently miss the mark, with prices remaining stable due to factors like sanctions on Russia and China’s persistent crude imports.
Their piece “The Glut Games” satirizes the recurring predictions of gluts that fail to materialize, emphasizing how model-based forecasts overlook real-world dynamics.
Energy News Beat points to a potential small global oil deficit in 2025, as noted in “US Sees Small Global Oil Deficit in 2025,” reversing earlier surplus calls.
They remain bullish long-term, as seen in “OPEC Still Sees Tight Oil Market Despite Supply Increases,” where they invoke the famous “Where’s the Beef?” analogy to ask “Where’s the Glut?” amid OPEC+’s production adjustments.
Additional coverage, such as “China Continues to Stockpile Crude Oil Through 2026,” warns of potential gluts but stresses demand growth, while “Why Model-Based Oil Forecasts Keep Missing the Mark” critiques bearish projections from net-zero advocates.
Overall, Energy News Beat’s perspective aligns with Lance’s, advocating for a more optimistic view on oil’s future.
What This Means for Investors: Opportunities Amid Uncertainty
For investors, Lance’s “Where’s the Glut?” query signals potential upside in oil equities and related assets. If demand growth outpaces supply as he and OPEC predict, prices could stabilize or rise, benefiting majors like ConocoPhillips with strong balance sheets and dividend yields. A recovery to $70-75 per barrel would enhance profitability, particularly for U.S. shale players, though sustained lows in the $60s might prompt production cuts and market consolidation.
The mixed consensus adds risk: Bearish IEA outlooks could lead to short-term volatility, but bullish views from executives suggest long-term resilience, especially with geopolitical factors and energy transition delays.
Investors should monitor key indicators like U.S. production records and global stockpiling trends, as highlighted by Energy News Beat.
Diversifying into energy giants with exposure to both oil and natural gas—considering potential LNG gluts or expansions—could hedge against downside.
Ultimately, Lance’s comments encourage a contrarian approach: Bet on demand’s endurance rather than succumbing to glut fears, positioning for a tighter market ahead.
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