The recent U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has triggered a wave of optimism in oil markets. Traders are pricing in a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a rapid normalization of supply chains, and a return to lower pre-crisis price levels. Brent crude has already dropped toward $83–$84 per barrel, with WTI near $80–$81, […]
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In a major escalation of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, President Donald Trump has signaled that U.S. forces will strike Iran “VERY HARD TONIGHT” and, in the near future, take control of Iran’s critical oil infrastructure, including Kharg Island. This development draws direct parallels to the administration’s approach in Venezuela and aligns with commentary from energy […]
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In a significant sign that Gulf crude is once again finding its way to market, Kuwait is offering at least 4 million barrels of its main export-grade crude to Asian refiners—the first such sales to the region since the Iran war erupted in late February 2026. The volumes are loaded onto two very large crude […]
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Even the most optimistic reopening of the Strait of Hormuz won’t deliver a quick fix. Physical barrels tell a far harsher story than paper futures. Art Berman (@aeberman12) nailed it in his May 25, 2026, post: There is no clean, modelable “successful reopening” of the Strait of Hormuz. Even in the wildly optimistic scenario, the […]
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In a decisive move that underscores its strategic pivot amid ongoing regional tensions and its recent departure from OPEC, the United Arab Emirates is accelerating infrastructure to dramatically expand its oil export capacity, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. On May 15, 2026, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan directed […]
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In a move that signals business-as-usual intent amid extraordinary disruption, OPEC+ delegates have outlined plans to press ahead with a series of oil production quota increases, aiming to fully unwind the final layer of voluntary cuts announced in 2023 by the end of September 2026. According to Bloomberg reporting, key members intend to raise targets […]
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Saudi Arabia has delivered a stark update to OPEC: its crude oil production plunged another 651,000 barrels per day (b/d) in April, hitting just 6.316 million b/d—the lowest level since the 1990 Gulf War. According to a monthly report from OPEC’s secretariat obtained by Bloomberg, the kingdom’s output has now fallen a cumulative 42% since […]
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Irina Slav did a great job today leading the discussion, and it was interesting with the great comments from the live audience. Irina had a great point about the new Ford’s ability to shut down or allow you to use your own car due to heightened stress. This is not good, and I will not […]
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In a one-two punch that is sending shockwaves through global energy markets, the United Arab Emirates has exited OPEC and OPEC+ — and is now openly discussing a currency swap line with the United States. The moves come at a moment of historic turmoil: an ongoing Iran war has disrupted oil flows through the Strait […]
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The United Arab Emirates’ announcement on April 28, 2026, that it will formally exit both OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance effective May 1 marks a seismic shift in global oil politics. As one of the cartel’s most significant producers with substantial spare capacity, the UAE’s departure delivers a major blow to an already strained […]
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