In a series of bold operations, Ukrainian forces have intensified their drone campaigns against Russian energy assets, underscoring the ongoing geopolitical tensions’ profound impact on global oil markets. The latest strikes, including a significant hit on the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, highlight Ukraine’s strategy to disrupt Russia’s oil production and export capabilities. Additional targets in Simferopol (Crimea), Smolensk, and Volgograd have compounded the pressure, with experts warning of sustained high risks to energy stability amid the conflict.
Recent Attacks: A Week of Coordinated Strikes
Over the past week (December 6-13, 2025), Ukrainian drones have targeted multiple Russian oil refineries, depots, and related facilities, marking one of the most aggressive periods of such operations this year. Here’s a breakdown of key incidents:December 6: Drones struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery, damaging a low-temperature isomerization unit critical for producing high-octane gasoline. Ukraine’s military released footage confirming the precision attack, which was part of a joint operation involving multiple units.
The video shows Ukrainian drones hitting the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai. Oil refineries & depots have also been hit in Simferopol, Smolensk and Volgograd @visegrad24 pic.twitter.com/NQiKrGWUQg
— Energy Headline News (@OilHeadlineNews) December 14, 2025
Separately, an oil depot in Livny (Oryol region) from an earlier December 2 strike showed destruction of at least two fuel tanks via satellite imagery, each holding up to 2,000 cubic meters.
🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Ukrainian Forces for the first time, struck Lukoil offshore oil fields in the Caspian Sea with long-range drones, located over 905km from the frontline.
Oil and gas production from more than 20 wells has been completely halted. The platform
+1 pic.twitter.com/aDhjrTedJG— Avinash K S🇮🇳 (@AvinashKS14) December 13, 2025
December 11: A major escalation saw strikes on five sites in a single night—a new record for Ukraine’s Armed Forces. The Afipsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai was hit for the sixth time since July, resulting in fires and an estimated 20-30% drop in output. Other targets included the Syzran refinery (halted operations after its third hit since August), Samara and Saratov refineries, and a fuel depot in Volgograd.
Reports also indicate hits on oil depots in Simferopol (Crimea) and energy-related infrastructure in Smolensk, such as the Dorogobuzh thermal power plant.
December 12: Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) drones targeted offshore oil platforms in the Caspian Sea for the first time, striking Lukoil’s Filanovsky platform (four direct hits, freezing output from over 20 wells) and the Korchagin platform. This marks a historic expansion of Ukraine’s reach to remote maritime assets.
Additional strikes hit the Slavneft-YANOS (Yaroslavl) oil refinery north of Moscow and the Orsknefteorgsintez refinery near Kazakhstan.
December 13: Explosions rocked an oil refinery in Saratov Oblast amid ongoing drone incursions, further disrupting operations in central Russia.
These attacks, often involving long-range FPV-2 and “Lyuty” drones, have focused on refineries producing diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel vital to Russia’s military and economy.
Assessing the Damage: Billions in Losses and Capacity Reductions
The cumulative impact of these drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure has been substantial, with estimates suggesting widespread disruptions to production, refining, and exports. Throughout 2025, Ukrainian forces have targeted at least 17 major refineries, cutting Russia’s refining capacity by nearly a fifth (up to 38% in worst-case scenarios) and forcing curbs on fuel exports.
Specific damages from recent hits include:Refineries: Facilities like Syzran and Ryazan have halted or reduced processing, with repairs potentially taking over a month and disrupting military logistics.
The Afipsky strike alone could reduce output by 20-30%, while broader attacks have led to a 9% month-on-month decline in export volumes.
Oil Depots and Tankers: Strikes on depots in Volgograd and Livny have destroyed storage tanks, exacerbating fuel shortages. Additionally, four attacks on oil tankers in 2025 caused minimal casualties or spills but highlighted vulnerabilities in Russia’s shadow fleet used to evade sanctions.
Offshore and Power Infrastructure: The Caspian Sea platform hits represent a new front, potentially idling billions in assets and forcing Russia to redeploy air defenses from frontlines to protect energy sites.
Power plants like Dorogobuzh in Smolensk, tied to industrial support, have also been damaged, indirectly affecting oil operations.
Russia maintains about 20% spare refining capacity to offset losses, but experts note that the situation is more severe than earlier in the year, with potential long-term effects on global supply chains.
Overall, these strikes have contributed to a projected flat oil refining output for 2025 compared to 2024, amid fears of further disruptions.
Declining Revenues: A Geopolitical Blow to Russia’s Energy Sector
The drone campaigns, combined with tightened Western sanctions, are accelerating a sharp decline in Russia’s oil and gas revenues. According to recent analysis, revenues are set to plunge by nearly 50% in December 2025, hitting a five-year low of approximately $5.15 billion.
This drop stems from repeated infrastructure damage and enhanced sanction enforcement, which have curtailed exports and forced Russia to sell at discounts.
Geopolitically, these developments maintain high oil market volatility. While attacks have not yet caused major global price spikes, they compel Russia to divert resources, weakening its war effort and exposing its dependencies on energy exports. Ukraine’s strategy appears aimed at eroding Russia’s economic resilience, potentially influencing negotiations or international support dynamics.
As the conflict persists, the energy sector remains a critical battleground, with implications for worldwide supply and prices. Drones have changed war forever.
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