SYDNEY, Feb 21 (Reuters) – Australia’s east could face blackout risks from the middle of this decade if renewable energy projects are not ramped up as the country moves rapidly away from its dependency on coal-fired power stations, the energy market operator warned on Tuesday.
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) said reliability gaps on energy transmission could emerge from 2025 and then widen in 2027, when at least five coal power stations were expected to retire, cutting 13% from the National Electricity Market (NEM) grid.
The NEM covers all Australian regions except the state of Western Australia and the Northern Territory.
“Urgent and ongoing investment in renewable energy, long-duration storage and transmission is needed to reliably meet demand from Australian homes and businesses,” AEMO Chief Executive Officer Daniel Westerman said in a statement.
Australia narrowly averted blackouts in June 2022 as several coal-fired plants suffered unexpected outages and others cut output because of coal shortages, while gas-fired generators faced soaring gas prices caused by global disruptions.
AEMO, in its latest update on the power outlook, withdrew its near-term electricity shortages forecast for South Australia and Victoria citing new gas, wind and battery developments, along with a delay to the retirement of a gas generator but said the reliability for eastern states remained at risk.
Some projects are running into delays, like Australia’s biggest hydropower project Snowy 2.0, which means they might not be ready in time to replace generators due to retire.
Since the 2022 annual report on power transmission outlook published in August, 1,326 megawatts (MW) of wind and 461 MW (604 MWh) of battery storage projects have been added across the national energy market.
But without further investment, the states of New South Wales and Victoria, home to more than half of Australia’s 25 million people, could face potential “reliability gaps” in power in 2026, AEMO said. (Reporting by Renju Jose Editing by Chris Reese)
