This was the second interview that I was fortunate enough to have with Dr. Friedman. His knowledge, experience, and insights are truly unparalleled for a comprehensive view of the political world. Having an opinion is one thing, having facts and a track record of being right separates the experts from the political incompetent.
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About Dr. Friedman
George Friedman, Founder and Chairman
George Friedman is an internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs and the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures.
Dr. Friedman is a New York Times bestselling author. His most recent book, THE STORM BEFORE THE CALM: America’s Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond, published February 25, describes how “the United States periodically reaches a point of crisis in which it appears to be at war with itself, yet after an extended period it reinvents itself, in a form both faithful to its founding and radically different from what it had been.” The decade 2020-2030 is such a period which will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture.
His most popular book, The Next 100 Years, is kept alive by the prescience of its predictions. Other best-selling books include Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe, The Next Decade, America’s Secret War, The Future of War and The Intelligence Edge. His books have been translated into more than 20 languages.
Dr. Friedman has briefed numerous military and government organizations in the United States and overseas and appears regularly as an expert on international affairs, foreign policy and intelligence in major media.
For almost 20 years before resigning in May 2015, Dr. Friedman was CEO and then chairman of Stratfor, a company he founded in 1996. Friedman received his bachelor’s degree from the City College of the City University of New York and holds a doctorate in government from Cornell University. See articles by George Friedman
Energy News Beat Podcast with Dr. George Friedman – Best Selling Author and an International Political Powerhouse
Automatic Transcription: If there are errors, we hope that it makes the material more entertaining, and have a disclamer for anything incorecclty recordded.
Stu Turley [00:00:07] My name is Stuart Turley, president of the Sandstone Group, and today is the Energy Newsbeat podcast and we have a special guest today. Today is Dr. George Friedman. He is the founder and chairman of the Geopolitical Futures Organization. They have a website and a dynamic team of information around the world. Dr. Friedman has many books out. He has their now translated into 20 different languages. He was the founder of the Stratfor report, which was a fantastic organization that is well respected for international news and insights. He is a fabulous knowledge resource. And we are so thrilled to have the best-selling author and chairman and founder of The Geopolitical Futures. Hello, my name is Stuart Turley and we are on this Sanshin Energy Newsbeat podcast. And I have a Valentine’s Day guest today, Dr. George Friedman, and he is a world-renowned author. He has had a lot of books out there. And the last one that he had out is The Storm Before the calm. He has several new chapters out on it and you’ve got to go out and get it. It is a phenomenal read. And Dr. Friedman, thank you very much for being here today. I sure appreciate you.
Dr. George Friedman [00:01:32] I’m happy to be here. I really am.
Stu Turley [00:01:34] Oh, well, you and I got to do a podcast last year, and I had so much fun. And I have been remiss and not getting down to Austin to be able to visit with you. And I’m going to have to make that trip when you get back. So we need to go have coffee.
Dr. George Friedman [00:01:49] The barbecue is ready.
Stu Turley [00:01:50] Yeah, sounds great. I’ll tell you what, I’ve got family members and friends that have been a big fan of yours for a very long time. And we’re all kind of curious about some of the questions we got back from our last talk. How did you get started? Where did you finally, finally get a world bug? Because as the founder of Geopolitical Futures, you’ve got those great books. You’ve got a worldwide network for worldwide information in politics. How did you get started?
Dr. George Friedman [00:02:24] Well, I started by being born in Hungary during the Cold War, and I remember the 1956 uprising and we were in the Bronx, New York, and I remember the tanks coming in. It was coming. And my mother said one block away from where your aunt lives now. Wow. So it kind of drove home in the moments that the world is not a quiet and safe place. So I was very little, but it really drove home to me that there are things happening in the world. That could change your life, they were Holocaust survivors of war in those days.
Stu Turley [00:03:06] And it’s probably not gotten any better, I mean, in some areas, though, I mean, it’s pretty much that pattern that’s like you said in the storm before the calm, we were talking about the different phases that we went through and the patterns. And I thought you were dead on, right. When you said that Trump this is not the next thing. There’s some more stuff coming around the corner. And you’ve been right a lot. Do you see the world? Are you going to be doing another book like The Storm before the calm with the difference is it 50-year patterns?
Dr. George Friedman [00:03:43] 50 year and 80-year patterns, yes, it’s every country have a pattern. Look, we humans are born in a certain place. And that defines to a great extent who we are and what we’re going to be. I was born in Hungary, raised in the United States, and that means I can do something like this if you’re born in Equatorial Guinea. We’re probably not going to be able to do this, our lives are changed or born, and there’s a high degree of predictability. There are exceptions. So if there is that predictability in how people behave, then groups of people have predictability for the nations. And if you understand the pressures that are on them, if you understand hunger’s that are in them, well, there are not many choices and satisfying them and suddenly the world becomes predictable in the same way that lives in poor countries are predictable. Rich countries, United States, could go all over the place, but only as an American can they go all over the place where you remain an American, you are what you born. So that allows me. And there was something else that brought me here, which was. I realized in the early 1990s that intelligence gathering had changed dramatically. Back in the 1970s, getting a newspaper out of Minsk absolutely vital, and the CIA had an entire entity whose desire to get foreign newspapers now and get it online. And I could really get out of line then. And I realized that what had been difficult was gathering intelligence. Now, the president was now analyzing intelligence. Hmm. And that’s how I started Stratford because we could gather 80 percent of the intelligence that was said to be secret. Right. It was really a game of understanding what you saw. So these two things kind of merged.
Stu Turley [00:05:54] I’ll tell you, having that kind of background really sets the stage for your new platform, the geopolitical future’s platform. I’m a subscriber to that platform and your worldwide correspondence to it really keeps me abreast of what we do here to help us. Your Stratfor report helped even the military, helped everyone else with your ideas and your thought processes for analysis. What are you seeing coming around the corner as we kind of see what’s going on? You had an article. It was a Russian move in Europe. It was put out on June 1st. And could you tell us a little bit what you were thinking in that article as you put that out? It looked like the organization principle of Russia, and you had a couple of good thoughts in there from our good buddy Putin. So.
Dr. George Friedman [00:06:50] Well, in 1991, the Soviet Union lost the states that SARS had developed in the 18th century. This was the strategic depth. It was because of distance that Napoleon failed was because of the distance of twice. The Germans failed. Hitler failed to take it, and they lost it. Now, if I’m. A Russian and I’m Putin and I’m from the KGB and I’m a patriot. I want those lands back and those lands that he had lost in 1914, in 2014, I should say, Ukraine is the key to Russian security and he believes that it was an American-planned coup. Oh, well, he argued that as a legally elected president. Was deposed with the laws of deposing him done the Sunday morning before he was kicked out and that the crowds were gathered, organized by American NGOs right now. His view is the hacks computers. We use NGOs. I’m not going to argue about what happened in Ukraine. It’s official that he believes he has to get it back. Hard thing to do. So he went into Belarus, north of Ukraine, right bordering on Poland, and essentially this soft coup himself taking control of it. He went into the South Caucasus. In this war between Azerbaijan and the Armenians, he now has a military in South Caucasus as peacekeepers, right? Good, good. Move out better. Now we think he’s going to be nibbling at Moldova, which is on the Romanian Ukrainian border, and he’s building a structure around Ukraine. But in the south, he’s protecting Russia from a historical invasion path right in the west. He’s protecting that. He is sitting there and saying this is where the enemy comes from. I’ll stop them. Wow. He’s not a nice guy. I think you’re not going to be a nice guy and a Russian ruler, but he is doing what a reasonable Russian would want to do.
Stu Turley [00:09:19] That’s pretty amazing. That is a chess master. I wonder if he plays chess.
Dr. George Friedman [00:09:25] All Russians play chess because we don’t know how to
Stu Turley [00:09:31] know that whole thought process, but does the cybersecurity and all of the ability for people to get to them with bombs and missiles from a distance, does that play into any of his thoughts on that?
Dr. George Friedman [00:09:48] We level Germany from the air at a distance. We penetrated German. Communications, right, price equals anything, but we knew every move they’re making, we penetrated Japanese, is the precise technology being used to penetrate, right? Interestingly enough, this technology is easier to penetrate than the old one. It’ll change. But, you know, cybersecurity is one of those things that they’re going to hack if they’re going to hack you. Right. It doesn’t change the direction of the nation’s army or changes the direction of nations is weakness. And that weakness is unforgivable in the south.
Stu Turley [00:10:32] I like that. Can I quote you on that? By all means. That is amazing. I really like that. I mean, now that you sit back and go, it’s a weakness that makes the difference. That’s unbelievable. As far as that we’re so. Putin gets I believe, and I have to fact check myself, sir. 35 percent of his GDP comes from energy use. And so when he’s trying to get that Nord Stream two done and he’s trying to really muscle in that control mechanism through their energy plays into a big mess with Putin.
Dr. George Friedman [00:11:15] So energy is Russia, right? The stable was. Iraq is a third-world country. It lives in the export of a primary commodity whose price it can’t control means when that price tanks and it did a couple of years ago. He is in a terrifically bad position. Any Russian leader forgets Putin would be in a terrifically bad position. He wants to do what he wanted to do after the fall of the Soviet Union, after, you know, he replaced Yeltsin is to build a modern economy. He never could. He never could, because capital was in the hands of the oligarchs. Much of the capital wound up in New York banks, in British banks, you couldn’t get control of them because that was the way he came to power. And this is the tragic long-term problem of Russia. The means of getting to power and holding onto power require that you dissipate your strength on holding power. And in doing that, you can’t build an economy.
Stu Turley [00:12:24] No, I hadn’t thought of that kind of a policy, but he is definitely in that strength, he exudes strength in that, but he had monetary issues. If I’m just kind of trying to summarize that point,
Dr. George Friedman [00:12:37] I put it this way. You walk at a bar and you’re afraid of a fight. Look tough.
Stu Turley [00:12:42] No, that’s good. Or take the first punch and you knock the big guy out. Right.
Dr. George Friedman [00:12:52] Well, make sure that first punch knocked him out. And if you look operates in the former Soviet Union, he says intelligence capabilities elsewhere, but he’s aware both of his distance and the psychological warfare he has to play. This is the same thing the Soviets did in Cold War. They were not nearly as powerful as the Americans imagined. Right. He but they convinced us they were our tier power. So one of the things is you’re playing the United States. Is a appear bigger than you are Chinese to play this game, too, right? It’s not that they’re not serious power, significant powers, but you don’t play the United States and look weak because we have no sympathy for the weak. Right. So if you look strong, will deal with you. So right now, we are in China talking about invading Taiwan. Mm-hmm. Guinevere, Tiguan, they have six amphibious carriers and it takes five hours to go from the port to Taiwan, right. And then two to three hours to unload. Do you know how many missiles the Americans are going to lower on that? You can’t do that, but given the fact that nobody really thinks much about battle, how so you can get the idea that China is on the verge of war and has a vast military overwhelming the Americans? I feel like back in nineteen seventy-five, I’m hearing how we lost in Vietnam and the Soviets overwhelming us and so on. Right. But that is the playbook in the United States.
Stu Turley [00:14:40] When? When you take a look at China, that’s a whole nother animal in there when you take a look at that mix. What about the islands that they’ve been building out there in that general area in the China Sea? They’re getting additional reach with that, with those islands that they’ve put out there.
Dr. George Friedman [00:15:01] Yeah, and a war that lasts about 30 minutes. There are small islands. They look good. They’re very impressive. OK, so you don’t put your forces on a small island air force.
Stu Turley [00:15:18] Yeah, that’s funny. And they have all these ships. I saw an article not too long ago on it where they have all these old tankers and things that are lined up out there trying to put a big fear that they’ve got a ton of military ships out on it.
Dr. George Friedman [00:15:32] So they’ve got a serious navy, but they’ve got to do. The problem is this. The United States has alliances. Now, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, have a base in India. You know, many in the world, China has one formal ally, Pakistan, wow, it has some allies in the region. I mean, they certainly have a strong position, Laos and probably Cambodia. But China is an isolated country and it’s also the biggest exporter in the world. It’s got to have access to the seas and these islands block them off. On the one hand, they would dearly like to go to war and breakthrough, right. On the other hand, the whole principle of war don’t lose becomes one
Stu Turley [00:16:29] that goes back to the bar comment. Dr. Friedman.
Dr. George Friedman [00:16:34] So this is the problem that China has obviously had, wants to appear as strong as it possibly can, and it’s not a trivial power. It’s not. But just geographically it Jerricho points all around it to make it impossible to get through. Now, the Chinese can try to fight their way through. But, you know, the U.S. Navy is not a joke, is also essential to remember. That the Japanese have not had a major naval battle since 1895. And Japanese, and they lost it. That kind of we always think in terms of hardware, we’re Americans, right? I want to know the command and control system. I want to know the people who have never fought in a war who are going to take on somebody on the American side. I went to Annapolis and learned all the battles that we fought and saw all the films. So it’s a difficult thing for the Chinese to do. You also have one final thing if you let me. Japan is the second-largest economy in the world, right, Zapater? Backed by individuals, it is the seventh, the fifth largest economy, when you divide among the people, it is just behind Guyana and Equatorial Guinea. So in that sense, we have to remember that China is a very poor country, the coastal regions are rich. The Interior is even poorer. So China is a very complex country. It’s not a minor country. It is a capable country. It can do many things. But taking on the United States. Is not necessarily one of them. So they will try to set up a negotiation now, as the Russians are to Biden is meeting with the
Stu Turley [00:18:27] Putin and is fantastic. So you have to see that. You know, the thing that we see on that is the whole dynamics, we’ve talked about the world almost in just a few minutes. And when you talk about the fighting and everything else, we have the Middle East. We only have a few more minutes on this podcast and we take a look at Iran and how it’s impacting the world by all these things. We have to admit, my Mr. Producer just gave me a 10-minute warning. So when we take a look at all of the worlds in the Middle East, you know, that’s impacting Russia’s ability to sell 30 percent of its GDP in Iran. Is the single major issue over there, I believe. And what are your thoughts on what’s going on with Iran right now and the nuclear deal and then oil and everything else?
Dr. George Friedman [00:19:26] Iran is a very bad spot. The entire Arab world is in alliance with Israel and deployed against Iran. The United States is. Sanctioning it in more ways you can and there will be 52 flights overhead to remind them why we’re here, how are you feeling? The key element is the one that Trump gave us. He didn’t create it. He oversaw it. OK, Netanyahu created it. It was an alliance between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. Right. And into that, everybody else flowed. Now the Iranians face a solid block. Now, the president has pledged in a campaign that he wants to negotiate a deal, deal with the current deal looks pretty good to me, but the president has a campaign promise he’ll go and negotiate and the Iranians are very good at blowing up a negotiation. So I suspect that that’s what’s going to happen here. I think he said it during the campaign, but hell, everybody says something during the dirty campaign. I think he’s looking at this right now and saying. This is something I don’t want to really mess with too hard, and the Iranians are saying we already have a settlement and the Americans are saying, no, we don’t. So you get what’s going on.
Stu Turley [00:20:50] Oh, yeah. And there’s now a big worry that Iran is going to get to four million barrels per day production and they’ve been selling to China under the table and spot in spoofing and doping and all those kind of things. So they’re not exactly trying to adhere to OPEC and helping people out in that whole area. I’m just thrilled that Israel has all those treaties and everything in place. And so, you know, that makes a big difference, don’t you think?
Dr. George Friedman [00:21:24] Absolutely. But remember, this is the Middle East and the treaty is suggesting that we might want to be together. A point is a dynamic place. Iran is in a tough spot, but it hasn’t broken. It has an incredible resilience that it shouldn’t have, but it does mean we can increase the pressure, but it might do something crazy even there. I think the American strategy is those to your own juices will make a statement together because there’s nothing to do if we really shifted that. Treaty on nuclear weapons, the Israelis go nuts, the Saudis go nuts, do you? He would go nuts. The entire region would go crazy because the primary enemy of Iran are the Sunni Arabs. Oh, yes. Backed by the Jews. Right. And it’s quite a coalition against you. And they’re not going to respect any deal we make.
Stu Turley [00:22:28] That’s a horrible kind of the whole proposition for a negotiating table, isn’t it?
Dr. George Friedman [00:22:34] Well, it’s a pretty good one because you could sit there looking like you’re really trying. Oh, make sure you fail.
Stu Turley [00:22:42] I’m not going to be playing chess against you or Putin any time soon. Now, since you have been right in your 100-year book and I mean, that’s why it’s still relevant. Your storm before the calm is fabulous in describing those. What’s next, Dr. Friedman? Are you going to do a worldwide storm before the calm weather patterns? Because you mentioned you tease that just a little bit earlier. We’re saying each country is different with its own patterns.
Dr. George Friedman [00:23:13] Well, my wife has told me no more books prior to being in the house, but there’s one coming and we’re debating which one it is. OK, here’s the thing I’m looking forward to. I think China and Russia are much weaker than they are than they seem to be. And I think they’re kind of having their final dance. And I think the internal problems of the Chinese economy, which are not noted because they’re shipping semiconductors, I think, and the deep problems in the Russian economy, which are well noted, are going to take a toll. The forces that brought down the Soviet Union are still there. Well, you can go a result.
Stu Turley [00:23:54] Well, you just have the topic for your new book.
Dr. George Friedman [00:23:57] Yeah, so I’m trying to say to people and people are saying something else.
Stu Turley [00:24:03] Well, that’s fabulous. Dr. Freeman, thank you very much. I am such a big fan of yours and also the Geopolitical Futures Web site we’re going to recommend to everybody. Go sign up. You’ve got great people working with you. And on that. And so I read it all the time. And so, again, I thank you for being on here. Tell people it’s going to geopolitical features, dot com, and any other way they can get a hold of your book is on Amazon and they need to buy your book and go get a subscription. So any other way they can get a hold of you or anything. We’ll have that in this show notes for you. So thank you very much for coming on.
