Weekly Daily Standup Top Stories
Solar Shares Rise as Trump Hit to Credits Softer Than Feared
In a surprising turn for the renewable energy sector, solar stocks have surged following the Trump administration’s latest guidance on tax credits for wind and solar projects. Released on August 15, 2025, the new rules […]
Trump Moves to Open 82% of Alaska’s Petroleum Reserve for Drilling
In a bold push to bolster domestic energy production, the Trump administration has advanced plans to open approximately 82% of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) to oil and gas leasing. This move, announced in June […]
Tariffs and Energy Costs Could Spark an Economic Crisis for Germany
ENB Pub Note: This article from Zerohedge is very timely. What also is in play is the additional costs associated with NATO, defence, and Net Zero that the EU is enforcing. Energy policies have effectively […]
Energy Transition Stalls as Oil Super-Cycle Risks Return
ENB Pub Note: This is an outstanding article from Irina Slav at Oilprice.com. She brings up some fantastic points, and for investors looking for returns, there is the precursor of an oil super-cycle looming. Stu […]
Gavin Newsom Warms to Big Oil in Climate Reversal – But Can You Trust Him?
In a word – No : Stu Turley
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
00:13 – Solar Shares Rise as Trump Hit to Credits Softer Than Feared
02:26 – Trump Moves to Open 82% of Alaska’s Petroleum Reserve for Drilling
05:19 – Tariffs and Energy Costs Could Spark an Economic Crisis for Germany
07:33 – Civitas board bumps CEO Doyle, agrees to $435 million of asset sales
13:04 – Energy Transition Stalls as Oil Super-Cycle Risks Return
115:46 – Gavin Newsom Warms to Big Oil in Climate Reversal – But Can You Trust Him?
18:46 – Outro
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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] Is Gavin Newsom the next CEO of Chevron? Next on the Energy Newsbeat weekly recap. [00:00:05][5.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:00:13] Solar shares rise as Trump hits to credit softer than feared. What was that all about? In a surprising turn in the renewable energy sector, solar stocks have surged following the Trump administration’s latest guidance on tax credits for wind and solar projects. This was released on August 15th, the new rules from the Treasury Department. Michael, I did not have this on my bingo card. When you take a look at solar and investments, I did not think about that. When you look at recent gains as of August 16th, 2025, I put this chart in here. First solar up 12.77%. First run up 39.17%. Solar edge technologies up 24%. End phase, I’ve been tracking this bad dog for a long time, up 11%. Percent. The bottom line is I’m not quite dead yet. I did not see all this going on, Michael. [00:01:13][59.5]
Michael Tanner: [00:01:13] I think you have to remember this. Whenever the government comes in and regulates an industry, the incumbents always win. We’ve seen that over the years with the pipeline industry where pipeline manufacturers had tremendous gains in the market, if only because you could build new pipelines leading to a surge in the people who actually had pipelines, giving them quote unquote monopoly power. So I think this idea that all of a sudden now with these tighter solar regulations, all of the sudden I think the incumbent players are going to fare very well because there’s going to be a segment of the economy who still wants quote unquote clean energy. They’re still going to desire solar, still desire wind and those companies that have those projects up and running or have those projects in the works are going benefit from that versus the people that eventually want to do that. So I think this is a oddly unintended consequences from what I would call mandates or regulations from the government, which in this case is not really a regulation. It’s more stripping away the ability for new projects to be developed based on the tax credits. [00:02:15][61.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:02:15] Yes. And so I thought I got a tickle out of that because I was watching on my day trading there. I was sitting there kind of going, whoa, these charts were going off. And that’s why I put that story out there. Trump moves to open 82% of Alaska’s petroleum reserve for drilling. And I absolutely love this. Love me some Alaska drilling. I got the next story. I’m just teeing up the next one. I did a Substack article on the events that went on in Alaska on Friday, but I want to cover this one first, Michael. The NPR spans roughly 23 million acres and is managed by the Bureau of Land Management and has long been eyed for its hydrocarbon potential. You and I have talked about this on the show from before, but now that we know that they’ve got even more of this opened up, the timeline that I have in here is I wanted make sure that people as investors start looking at Conoco, Hillcorp, Exxon and Chevron and how they play into Alaska especially with some of these bigger projects coming around the corner because we always want to take a look wait a minute here’s an announcement how does this play into what is how do you make money at this and you take a look at the total recoverable oil listen to this 2.7 to 10 billion barrels Daily peak production, 200,000 to 500,000 barrels per day. Natural gas, 114 trillion cubic feet. That’s more gas than Jerry Nadler. [00:03:47][92.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:03:48] Aye, aye, aye. That’s a lot of gas from Jerry now that that’s a good one. To kind of answer, at least in my opinion, the question that you posed of who is this going to be good for, from an investing standpoint, I mean, one, obviously you mentioned Hill Corp. The problem is you kind of got to put them to the side because you can’t invest in them. They’re a private company, but you can get in on Conoco Phillips, which is the owner of the Willow Project, who is most likely to benefit from the opening up of this because they not only are going to have a strong foothold with this Willow project, which was actually approved under the Biden administration. So it’s a little bit of them talking out of both sides of their mouth, but the fact that they’re going to have a deep understanding. Exxon and Chevron do not necessarily have a huge footprint right now. We obviously know that they. Been in Alaska before they could maybe reenter via some joint ventures to help develop some of this acreage. But I do think it’s going to come down to Conoco Phillips leading the show. I mean, most of the production right now in Alaska comes out of Prudhoe Bay, which I mean was developed 50, 60 years ago and has been declining as a resource ever since. And that’s what happens with oil fields. We tap them, we use them as a research and then they eventually begin to decline and we need to shift elsewhere. So I think this is a great, great move by the Trump administration. It’s truly the only thing he really can do if he really wants to hammer this drill baby drill We could talk for hours about what drill baby drill means to the oil and gas industry but from a political standpoint there are very few places where you can just add Millions of barrels to the Oil and gas market Alaska and one of them So if you’re gonna talk the talk you’re a walk the walk and open up places like Alaska [00:05:18][90.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:19] tariffs and energy costs could spark an economic crisis for Germany. Have you heard me say this before? But this is absolutely a fun one. This is from zero edge and it is extremely timely, especially because we’re talking about also the UK and net zero energy policies equals deindustrialization and fiscal collapse. German industry is being hit hard with new U.S. Tariffs, high energy costs, and strict EU climate policies. The EU trade deal imposes 15% on deal exports, many firms to scale back U. S. Operations. Political leaders remain unwilling to challenge the Green Deal despite mounting economic and social costs. The new survey by the German Chancellor of Commerce and Industry confirms what was already obvious. The EU-US trade deal will especially hurt Germany’s export-oriented economy. If Germany fails, Michael, the EU fails. It’s just as simple as that. They were the biggest manufacturing and biggest part of the economy that they had in there. So they’ve got to retool, they got to rethink, and they’ve gotta do other things in there Because NATO, at 5% spending, their additional tariff fees to the United States, those two things, that’s 10% of their GDP. I mean that is like, holy smokes, Batman, that is a lot of money. [00:06:52][92.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:06:52] Yeah. If your economy is solely based on exporting goods to the United States, and now all of a sudden you’re in the crosswinds of a president who feels like tariffs are the best way to go about, you know, increasing revenues at home, which so far in the limited data set that we have, he’s actually proved correct from the standpoint of these tariffs have seen to done more positive than they have negative. So when you’re Germany and now you’re looking at how are we going to continue to increase your GDP, increase the things going on there while being a primary export, it makes things really difficult and you know considering the high energy costs that the German people are dealing with I mean it only makes it more difficult. Oh, it is. I want to bring up this too, because, you know, this happened about 10 days ago, but it really didn’t make much news. Civitas went ahead and dumped their CEO, Chris Doyle, in a little bit of a kind of a Friday news release. Guys, Civitas Resources is a Denver based oil and gas company. They’re the brainchild of Kimridge and Bendel over there. They’re a combination of Extraction and Crescent Peak Resources, who ended up rebranding turning into Civitas. Chris Dolla has led them since May 2022 after taking over from the chairman of the board, Chris Dell, and basically oversaw a pretty strategic move away from their Colorado DJ assets into the Permian Basin via about three acquisitions worth about $7 billion. But over the past year, Stu, that company’s stock has lost about half of its value. Prompted at the end of last year for the CEO, Chris Doyle, or I should say former CEO, Chris Doyles to launch about a hundred million dollar cost savings plan. But even those weren’t enough to save his job interim or chairman of the board. Um, what’s his name here? It’s something, something German water van Kempen, something like straight out of Hogan’s heroes here. We got Colonel Klink now leading Civitas. He used to be, I, I shouldn’t make too much fun of him because he used to be the former CEO of DCP midstream, basically through for about a decade from December of 2012, all the way to December of 22. And before that was a VP, or was the president over at Duke Energy. So it’s a, it’s pretty interesting. He was also the lead director of Engine Number One, an activist firm that made, and this is the interesting part. He’s the lead Director of the Board of Engine No. 1. If you remember this, Stu, this is that activist investor firm that made waves in 2012 by getting three climate change focused candidates elected to the board of Exxon Mobil. So very interesting to see who the selection was. Maybe a little bit of hand waving over there by Kimmeridge. Now has announced that he’s only going to be temporary. They’re going to launch a full CEO search. So Stu, I’m officially throwing your name into the hat to take over CEO of Civitas. So we will see if we can make that happen. But I think it’s very interesting, Stu, you know, a lot of anecdotes coming out of Civitos from this, I’ve heard from, from multiple folks that I know that have been in and out of that company, that it maybe wasn’t the, let’s just say, the nicest place to work. It was very top-down, authoritative. Obviously, when your stock gets cut in half, after $7 billion of acquisitions over the last year, well, really over the three years, but your stock over the years has gotten pounded by over 50%. Obviously, something’s gonna happen. Again, we also saw EVP and CFO, Mohat Singh of Expand get canned last week, so lots of changes going on in the management front. I think what this is showing is that the difficulty of maintaining growth from a public oil and gas standpoint. I think it’s going to be really tough. And I think if you’re the CEO of a publicly traded company, you’ve got to really be thinking hard about how you’re going to continue to drive growth. Because at the end of the day, the capital markets don’t care if oil prices are down. They don’t if capitals has dried up. What they want to show is year over year growth, but growth not just in oil production, growth in margins, growth in EBITDA, growth and things that actually mean you’re generating more cash on a business than you were last year. And that’s hard to do when prices go down and you’ve already, you know, basically driven up your inventory or drilled up all of your inventory. So this is going to be very interesting. Civitas makes a move probably long overdue or relative to the fact that we’ve seen this depreciation of their quarterly earnings over the past probably two years, but really their stock price has really gotten hammered the past year. So really interesting. [00:11:02][250.1]
[00:11:02] We’ll be right back with the podcast guys. But first we need paid the bills. As always guys, the news and analysis you hear is brought to you by the world’s greatest website www.energynewsbeat.com. Stu and the team, tremendous job making sure that website stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business. Go ahead and hit that description below for all links to the timestamps, links to articles. You can also see a link to our sub stack, theenergynewspeed.substack.com, you get a great, great mix of articles that only are available via our substack that come through there. So sign up, subscribe. It’s a great way to support the show. If another great way to support this show is sign up for a paid subscription. Where you get a bunch of paid for only content access to our tarot. Entire archives and really get in the mind of Stu and myself. I know it sounds dangerous, but would recommend doing that. That’s theenergynewsbeat.substack.com also shout out Reese Energy Consulting guys. We’d love them if you were at all. Touching the midstream space whether you’re an upstream company need help with your oil and gas marketing whether you a midstream company that just has a Project that you that you need to talk about whether you are trading crude oil or natural gas whether you were downstream company You’re dealing with projects in the in the mid stream space Reese energy consulting has the skills the knowledge and the team to be able to get what you need done They’ve got over, you know 150,000 years of experience guys. So I’d highly recommend checking out their clients range from two people in a garage, all the way up to the largest publicly traded companies. So if you’re wondering, are you a fit for them? The answer is yes guys, reeseenergyconsulting.com. Thank you guys for supporting the show. And finally guys, investinoil.energynewsbeat.com If it’s never too early, start thinking about your 2025 tax burden and it’s ever too early to continue to allocate money. To energy in your portfolio guys. It’s a great, great way to do that. Invest in oil.energynewsbeat.com. We have Gervay Gate tax calculator, calculate your tax burden, how much you could save investing in oil and gas. We also have an oil and gasoline portfolio survey where if you fill it out, we will send you a bunch of great free resources to think about as you’re investing in oil and gas. And if you qualify, we will point you in the right direction guys. So invest in oil All right, let’s get back to the show. [00:13:04][121.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:13:04] Energy transition stalls as oil super cycle risks return. Michael, this is absolutely imperative. This is a fantastic article from Irina Slav at oilprice.com. She’s got some fantastic points. And I’ll tell you what, this is what investors are calling me up and saying, what are we gonna look for? Ristad just warned that global oil supply could struggle to meet rising demand. It also says, reserve replacement from new projects is expected to cover less than 30 percent of production in the next five years. Holy smokes, Batman. The slow, costly energy transition and under-investment in exploration have led to big oil and NOCs refocus on oil and gas. Analysts were warning another oil super cycle may be needed after 2030. Michael, you’ve heard me say I’m on a long-term oil bull. Well, guess what? In a world filled with flat or growing demand after 2030, another oil Supercycle would be needed. Artrium Avernoff, Deputy Head of Analyst at Ristad Energy said, he’s cool cat, I’ve followed him for a long time. [00:14:22][77.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:14:22] No, he’s very good. I love the stuff that RiceStats put out. I mean, I don’t want to just jump out and say, oh, wow, they’ve hit the nail on the head here. I think they have, but I think everybody in the oil and gas business has known about this. I means, when you talk about declining oil and gas wells, if you don’t continue to drill, you don t continue to add production. And we know that demand increases year over year. It just is what it is. The more countries become moved from second world to first world, the more that we desire things, there’s always going to be an increased demand for energy. So to think that we can just not drill more, not put more production onto the market, it ends up being a, you end up getting in this interesting scenario and it’s why we talk about the cyclical nature of the oil and gas business. As prices fall, so does new drilling. When new drilling falls, eventually production rolls over and the whole cycle comes around. So I think you put this out perfectly. What does this mean for investors? We’ve got to understand what cycle you’re in and invest accordingly. Understand where you are in the cycle and invest accordingly. [00:15:22][60.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:15:23] Absolutely. And Armin Nasser says from Saudi Arabia, because president and CEO reality has revealed the transition plan that has been oversold and under delivered for large parts of the world, especially Asia. And guess who’s buying a lot of LNG to enter to electricity import facilities. No, absolutely. Gavin Newsom warms up to big oil on climate reversal. But can you trust him? And I a byline in there in a word, Michael? No, there’s no way in the world I would absolutely trouble, even waste my time trying to believe him. In a stunning pivot that left environmental reeling and industry insiders cautiously optimistic, California Governor Newsom is negotiating a compromise with big oil to ramp up drilling in Kern County. And I’m going to hold my breath because it’s not going to happen. This move is averting a potential gasoline price spike. Michael, when I had Doomburg and when I had Mike Umbro and I had David Blackmon on the podcast, Mike Uumbro was saying it’s going to start at $8 gas and most likely go to $10 gasoline and $10 diesel. When the two refineries, which is 20% of California’s refinery capacity, shuts down next year. And now, now… Governor Newsom is sitting there going, oh, excuse me, but I’m gonna start issuing permits. Michael, they used to do 3,000 permits in the Kern County. They’ve now had 24 this year. There’s no way you can drill a well in California. [00:17:01][97.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:01] No, absolutely. And what I find interesting is this little quote that he says, we’re all beneficiaries of oil and gas. No one’s naive about that. I mean, well, yeah, considering the amount of hair gel that you’re using, my dude, it’s what you’re going to need to increase it. Cause with the decline curve coming on some of these wells, he’s worried about his kids supply. And I only make that joke because I mean what is crazy to me is this screams Gavin Newsom just getting ready to run for president. I don’t think he has any desire to actually do this in California. I think what he’s doing is He’s licking his finger a little bit, putting it up and seeing where the wind blows and says, if I’m going to eventually run for president, I should probably try to be more pragmatic when it comes to energy because all they’re going to do is put on campaign ads, $8 gas, $8, $9 gas, $10 gas, nobody, no middle-class people can afford to live in California. It’s only the rich and elite. So I think that’s part of what we’re doing now on the counter side. Hey, this actually might be a great opportunity to you take the opportunities you’re given. You play the hand that you’re dealt if you’re California. So I think putting some words in maybe Mike Umbro’s mouth, but I’m sure he recognized this. However, whatever it takes to get Gavin Newsom to come to the negotiating table, it is what it is. That’s the hand you’re dealt. Great. If he wants to run for president, that’s perfect because now it gives us an opportunity to negotiate. And yes, it’s not the best deal, but it’s a deal nonetheless, and it could at least increase the permits. [00:18:17][75.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:18:18] But in the permits is where it’s at. Take the Palisades fire. They haven’t built any houses yet. So why should you trust him when he says, oh, I’m going to let you drill until I see rigs in the air? Why would you want to invest, you know, in this? Yes, that’s where it all up. They’re still importing 60 between 65 and 70 percent of their oil that they use. This impacts the United States. This is not just a California. [00:18:46][28.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:18:46] Now it does. We’ll cover the Palisades fire permitting conspiracy on some other podcasts guys. Don’t worry. We won’t, we won’t bore you here guys. [00:18:46][0.0][1112.1]
