Live on X, YouTube, and LinkedIn! Irina Slav, Tammy Nemeth, David Blackmon and Stu Turley circle up on this live addition to talk about this growing trend that does not look like it will stop anytime soon. – Also March 25th, we are targeting the topic of “Energy Kilmageld.” @davidblackmon6807 A great discussion today about #naturalgas , #renewableenergy , #international #energytransition and the truth about energy. We welcome everyone’s comments from any point of view and have some amazing live discussions in the works. Tune in every Monday for a live discussion, and we answer all questions live.
Critical Links:
https://irinaslav.substack.com/
https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/
Highlights of the Podcast
01:03 – UK heat pump makers look to the government for certainty
06:13 – Europe gets lucky with a mild, windy winter
10:06 – All sources of energy
14:45 – The Biden pause on permitting
16:20 – Rishi Sunak announces new gas power stations to ease risk of blackouts
18:41 – The government wants 30 billion for gas production
19:49- Germany outlines $17 billion plan to subsidize gas to hydrogen shift
21:38 – The status of the California’s plan to build a bullet train
25:42 – India to see $67 billion investments in gas sector in 5-6 years
28:34 – Net zero climate goal
29:44 – Biden’s, budget
36:07 -The big risk of choosing the wrong technology
37:15 -The problem in the northeast
The Podcast Hosts for The Energy Realities
Energy Consulting Specialist
Stuart Turley
President, and CEO, Sandstone Group, Podcast Host
Blubrry Podcast:
March 18th: Energy Realities – Resurgence of Natural Gas Plants – A Live talk
Stuart Turley [00:00:01] Choo choo choo. We are live. David.
David Blackmon [00:00:04] Everybody! To the Energy Realities podcast. Here we are again. We, we don’t have Tammy Nemeth with this, unfortunately. She’s making an important speech up in Canada today, but, Stu Turley is here. Irina Slav is here from Bulgaria. Helps things in Europe today. Irina.
Irina Slav [00:00:22] Well, with my press reports, it’s a lovely March afternoon. Very typical for the season. Yeah.
David Blackmon [00:00:29] Fantastic. We’re having. Oh, gosh. The sun’s out in Texas. We had rain for about a week over here. It’s been awesome. Needed it on our grass anyway. Here we go. We’re talking about natural gas. Today. There’s been a grand resurgence of demand for natural gas all over the world. Countries are trying to obtain as much of it as they can via LNG or new production to fuel their economies. And we’re going to have a discussion about several stories that have broken recently on that topic. And two, here we go. UK heat pump makers look to government for certainty. Well, of course. They do because nobody wants their product. Whose story is this?
Stuart Turley [00:01:12] Irina
Irina Slav [00:01:14] No one of mine, I think. Well, these are both mine.
David Blackmon [00:01:18] Okay. Oh, there’s two of them, right?
Irina Slav [00:01:21] Yes, do. If you want to just start the discussion, that’s fine by me.
Stuart Turley [00:01:24] Oh, no, I, I let’s hear from you this morning.
Irina Slav [00:01:28] Well, basically what you said, David, is exactly right. People don’t want to buy heat pumps. And there was another story also in, in the ft. This week about heat pumps that it appears that the UK government anticipated, really major cost declines in heat pumps, which never materialized. I wonder why. Yeah, they cited something like 20 to 20 5% or 50%, price decline, which never happens.
David Blackmon [00:02:02] Right.
Irina Slav [00:02:04] And apparently, there is very low awareness of heat burns among the population. I mean, what was that? What is this supposed to mean, that people don’t know that heat pumps exist, or that people don’t know just how expensive they are, which is four times as much as a gas boiler?
David Blackmon [00:02:24] Right.
Irina Slav [00:02:25] So because the products are not selling as well as expected, the heat bomb makers, basically asking the government to do something to, make sure, these heat bombs sell, which the only thing, the only way I can think of this happening is by mandating heat pumps, which is what the UK government is doing and which is what the European Union plans to do by banning all, hydrocarbon sources of heating for homes from a certain year. Probably the heat pump makers want this to happen more quickly, like starting tomorrow. Can you imagine what this will cost if these mandates come into effect whenever? I mean, heat pump prices won’t come down by much between now and 2030 or 2035, but that’s.
David Blackmon [00:03:20] The. Opposite direction. Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:03:22] Arena heat pumps don’t work too good. Around zero Celsius.
Irina Slav [00:03:29] I have, I have heard from users that they actually can work at zero and Subzero, but for them to work in an optimum fashion. They need to be installed in a new house that has all the necessary, you know, insulation and necessary system. But they could work in subzero temperatures. Just how subzero is another question.
Stuart Turley [00:03:59] I I I’ve got two and they’re not really. They’re not as good as propane or fire fireplace.
Irina Slav [00:04:08] No, no, no.
David Blackmon [00:04:10] I’ll tell you a funny story. Over the weekend, a story broke. Was it the Wall Street Journal? I can’t remember, which publication I saw it in. U.S. government has released a study last week in which it claims that adoption of heat pumps could, result in cost savings. For guess how? What percentage of American homes? 100%.
Irina Slav [00:04:35] Right.
David Blackmon [00:04:35] Yeah. Nothing is 100%, folks. That’s kind of all fake claims ever made. Wow. You know, these things are very noisy, very expensive, very inefficient. In extreme temperature situations, they can work, but generally don’t work.
Irina Slav [00:04:50] Yeah, they work very well.
David Blackmon [00:04:52] Right.
Irina Slav [00:04:53] Unless you really have all the insulation in place and you’re losing almost no heat, which is how common is that?
David Blackmon [00:05:03] Not very.
Irina Slav [00:05:04] Not very. Yeah. And then there is this fixation on heat pumps. I really don’t understand it because we see two parallel narratives basically. On the one hand we need to grow. We need to consume less energy. On the other hand, let’s put in heat pumps which consume a lot of energy to work.
Stuart Turley [00:05:24] Do you think, Irina, that it’s about control from the standpoint? If you have a new system and the government and the agencies could then lock down at a certain temperature what you get to live in?
Irina Slav [00:05:41] Yeah, that would be smart meters. I think it’s as much about control as it is about stupidity.I mean, they are stupid and power hungry in equal measures.
Stuart Turley [00:05:57] I love you Irina you absolutely.
Irina Slav [00:06:04] but it’s just.There’s too much evidence of both. Especially in stupidity.
David Blackmon [00:06:10] Yes.
Irina Slav [00:06:11] Okay. And here we go. Europe gets lucky with a mild winter. Winter? Europe gets lucky for the second winter in a row. Is this where we’ve come to getting lucky through the winter? Because it’s warmer than usual. Well, somebody should have asked the Germans back in November when they had these snowstorms that were very seasonal and they weren’t mild. And so how was energy consumption then? But you win when we got lucky. We have become dependent on the weather. Yeah. We’re back to the Middle Ages or the Renaissance or whatever. Back to pre-industrial times. Counting ourselves. Lucky to have survived the winter without a gas shortage.
Stuart Turley [00:06:57] But isn’t it global warming?
Irina Slav [00:07:00] That’s exactly that’s that’s the really ironic part. If winters are getting generally warmer. Which is not the case here. I mean, the winter before last was warmer than last winter in my parts of Europe. Definitely. This one was cold, but. I forgot. I lost my train of thought. Yeah, if we’re getting lucky. What are we doing? It would say no luck if we’re depending on the weather outside the house.
David Blackmon [00:07:34] Lucky if that’s. If that’s what everyone has predicted. Right. Is that really getting lucky, or is it? What’s, they predicted they ought to be taking credit for? I don’t.
Irina Slav [00:07:43] Know. Oh, yeah. I remember what I was going to say. You have to thank climate change for having mild winters.
Stuart Turley [00:07:53] We have a great comment from. I sorry if I butchered your name.
Irina Slav [00:07:57] Certainly the ones that work best are the most expensive, which makes sense. Oh,.
David Blackmon [00:08:03] Sure. Absolutely
Stuart Turley [00:08:06] And we also had one from that. Sorry. We also had one from Nathan. Sorry guys. Just want to get Nathan shout out.
Irina Slav [00:08:12] Good morning Nathan.
Stuart Turley [00:08:16] So. What? We we sit back and take a look. Do you remember, guys, when, Germany was. I can’t remember who it was. I believe it was a couple of years ago when Germany was saying, you’re not going to be able to have, hot showers. It was somebody in the political office saying, we’re going to cut everybody’s energy sources, and you’re not going to. Be able.
Irina Slav [00:08:43] To do it, is there?
David Blackmon [00:08:45] They did that. Yeah
Irina Slav [00:08:45] yeah. Then reduce the amount of heating sent through district heating systems to residential blocks.
Stuart Turley [00:08:54] Wow.
Irina Slav [00:08:54] They did that to save. Save. gas. Yeah. And now they’re planning to build more gas power plants.
David Blackmon [00:09:03] Yes, exactly. And Germany is one of the most prominent movers in that direction. Of course. They’ve allocated, what, $17 billion in government subsidies to ensure they can all be, equipped, with the necessary technology to to convert to hydrogen. Right. That’s right. Sure.
Stuart Turley [00:09:27] Yeah. Now, the the hydrogen corridor and the hydrogen. I think the last successful thing we had was the Hindenburg. Excuse me. But, I really don’t see hydrogen as being. IRina, you and I last year talked about hydrogen. I didn’t realize how much water was needed by hydrogen until you and I. I mean, really dug into some of the research on that.
Irina Slav [00:09:56] Yeah, because nobody was talking about it and nobody still talks about it. I mean, we have the head of Irina, the International Renewable Energy Agency, telling us that all sources of energy are intermittent, but wind and solar are the least intermittent because they depend on the sun and the wind.
Stuart Turley [00:10:16] Right.
Irina Slav [00:10:18] I think we are past the point at which we could expect any common sense from the transitional planning. Yeah.
David Blackmon [00:10:26] Yeah. I mean, they have to make up these fairy tales about it to to make their preferred solutions make sense. Right? If it’s only if nuclear and coal and natural gas somehow are defined to be intermittent, that wind and solar can really make sense in a scaled up way. And, so, I mean, it’s all about the narrative with this stuff. And, I’m frankly sick of it, to be honest.
Irina Slav [00:10:54] Yeah. Yeah.
David Blackmon [00:10:55] It would be so nice.
David Blackmon [00:10:57] To be able to just have honest conversations about this stuff and make policy both based on what’s what actually happens in the real world and not based on some fantasy in which heat pumps are a better solution for 100%. Of American
Irina Slav [00:11:17] Right.
Stuart Turley [00:11:18] Do you think this would be a good time to show this exclusive interview on CNN that we just, got gotta cut over the weekend? Oh.
David Blackmon [00:11:25] Why not?
Stuart Turley [00:11:26] Okay. This is a great one. And I think that it is showing that there is some response back to the mainstream media coming up.
CNN 1 [00:11:34] Talk about it. It’s a buddy. Talk about it. If we were talking about climate. Change, the way we talk about a bunch of. Other very important issues. We’d be doing something about it. And then the thing to do about it really is to vote. You know what it means to have.
CNN 2 [00:11:52] The Obama talk about it. Yet they spend $11 million on a beach house, and they don’t seem to be concerned about the rising sea levels. Celebrities and politicians, they preach the same message, but they buy multiple houses, cars and private jets. They don’t seem to be concerned. I mean, the banks, they give out 30 years mortgages on houses that, according to you, will be underwater before they get their money back. So can you make it make sense?
CNN 1 [00:12:18] Can you make. We can do this, people. Thank you. We can do this.
David Blackmon [00:12:24] Yeah. That’s Bill Nye, the science guy who spent the preponderance of his career, doing 30 minute shows, for children on NPR. He’s an engineer, but he figured out about ten years ago there’s big money in being a climate alarmist. And so he does interviews like that now for a living.
Irina Slav [00:12:42] But he’s an expert because he’s the science guy.
David Blackmon [00:12:46] Yes, but he’s the science guy because I don’t know why.
Stuart Turley [00:12:52] Well. Nathan’s got a good comment for us, David.
David Blackmon [00:12:54] Stop making policies based on emotions. Wow, what a concept. Instead, start making policies based on facts. And with people that have spent time with boots on the ground in the industry. Wouldn’t that be a lovely thing?
Irina Slav [00:13:09] Until reality enforces itself on the people who are making the emotion based decisions and then will wonder, where did we go wrong? Well.
Stuart Turley [00:13:21] There were several, talks about, you know, the UK, you had mentioned Germany, doing that as well. And let me show you this right here. This is the slide. As we go through this, there are, 12,000 power plants that says oil and gas. However, there’s 9280 that are oil and gas. And if I went through and started looking at all of them and they just are operating. Yeah, they’re mostly natural gas.
David Blackmon [00:13:55] Virtually all of them are natural gas, probably 80%.
Stuart Turley [00:13:59] Yeah. It was high. And look at this. There’s 576 under construction. Under pre-construction. That’s a lot of new power plants right in there. And then there’s another 604 piled up on that. And these down in here canceled and shelled. I mean, so it’s almost like, there’s a lot. And I’ll come up with some other, numbers here on coal while we’re talking, but I just want to share that there is a substantial new amount, and it’s amazing how much of it is dependent on LNG.
David Blackmon [00:14:36] Yeah. And that’s the thing. And that’s why there’s such big concern among, our customers, the U.S. LNG customers, about the Biden pause on permitting, because, you know, there’s there’s a big concern that the US is not going to be a reliable trading partner on natural gas as demand continues to grow. All these developing nations, not all of them, but many developing nations, want more and more natural gas in power generation, in part to replace coal plants. They’re retiring due to pressures from the international community on emissions. And in part just because it’s it’s a lot more reliable and less expensive than trying to build an economy around intermittent, truly intermittent sources of energy like wind and solar. And so natural gas becomes the most viable option. It’s a lot cheaper to build. The nuclear takes a lot less time to get them up and running. And, so it’s a preferred solution. And the momentum behind that is actually growing in recent years, not declining as the global this community at the WEF and Cop 28 conference wants you to do. And and and that’s just reality. It’s the market functioning as we should expect the market to function. And governments concerned about their country’s energy security, trying to ensure they have the resources needed to provide that energy security.And that’s my rant for today, I guess.
Stuart Turley [00:16:15] Yay! I think they should
David Blackmon [00:16:16] Next story. Okay. Let’s go back. Back to the previous one, Rishi Sunak. Okay. He’s he’s scrambling right now. His party’s about 20% down in the polls in the UK because his party went so far to the left on climate alarmism and bought into everything that was being preached by Cop and the WEF on this matter. And now his party is about to get thrown out of office and replaced with an even more radical party that’s pretending not to be radical, called the British Labor Party, which is essentially a bunch of socialists. And so and so Sunak is now, you know, scrambling around trying to do some sensible things where energy is concerned. And one of those sensible things is want to announce new gas power stations to ease the risk of blackouts because the UK’s, grid is every bit as unreliable as California’s and Germany’s. And it’s because of the policies of the British Tory party, the Conservative Party that have has brought the grid and the UK to this sorry state. And so it’s just a clear example of how politicians, in some of these countries are trying to respond to this by saying, okay, we’ll use more natural gas because natural gas has a cleaner reputation in the public domain than coal.
Irina Slav [00:17:43] Right. And, you know, it’s funny what I find funny. They’re talking about black holes, but they’re trying not to say why there will be blackouts. And it’s just the truth is, like leaking through the cracks, that the blackouts will be because you need to balance your grid. And you can’t balance your grid with wind and solar. They’re basically trying to avoid saying it, but they’re ending up saying it. This is really pathetic. And besides, if the Tories get voted out of office, which they probably will. What’s going to happen to these gas power stations? The new ones? Nothing is going to happen because because labor will probably cancel them unless they accidentally swallow a dose of reality and say, yeah, okay, let’s have backup.
David Blackmon [00:18:39] And the other story there. That other story about 30 billion. The government wants 30 billion for gas production. That’s the one from Pakistan, I think. Where they have discovered a rich source of natural gas offshore. Or actually, I think it’s onshore and they’re wanting to be able to exploit it because. Why? Because they’ve been unable to obtain adequate amounts of LNG. They. Yeah. And so they’re trying to, start up a significant, domestic natural gas production industry. And of course, that takes a lot of money. But they’re trying to avoid going to coal. Right. And I think so many of these developing nations, you know, we’re going to end up going to more coal because LNG, the uncertainties around us, LNG and and.
Irina Slav [00:19:32] The price.
David Blackmon [00:19:34] And the. Yeah. And the and the, you know, ongoing rise in demand for it all over the world, in Europe and, and Asia in particular. All right, let’s go to the next stories. Germany $17 billion plan to subsidize gas to hydrogen shift. Okay, so, you know, they they’re going to spend $17 billion pursuing the pipe dream that you can just convert these natural gas plants to, to burn hydrogen without consideration of of all the complexities that involves in delivery of infrastructure, you can’t just start putting hydrogen through a natural gas pipeline because the.
Irina Slav [00:20:15] Molecules are the bills.
David Blackmon [00:20:18] Right? And the molecules are so much what is what is hydrogen? A hydrogen molecule is a tiny part of a natural gas molecule. Okay. To create hydrogen from natural gas, you have to break the molecules apart. So you end up with tiny, tiny molecules that are not going to be contained within a standard natural gas pipeline that will contain natural gas molecules. And so it’s just you’re going to have to replace all of your transportation infrastructure that cost billions and billions of dollars. And, and this thought that you can just build these plants and retrofit them to, to burn hydrogen without creating, you know, all manner of hazards and problems. Is is a pipe dream. It’s just the same thing that’s happening in California.
Stuart Turley [00:21:09] You have to love California.
David Blackmon [00:21:12] Yeah. Every bad energy idea that’s possible is being tried in California.
Stuart Turley [00:21:16] I absolutely.
Irina Slav [00:21:18] the guinea. Pigs of the transition.
David Blackmon [00:21:19] Yes.
Stuart Turley [00:21:21] I absolutely loved your, thing talking about. I believe it was the bullet train. Another hundred billion dollars. Is that correct?
David Blackmon [00:21:29] Yeah. That’s so the California bullet train. Let’s digress a little bit, okay? Because it’s so funny. They had hearings last week about the status of the California’s plan to build a bullet train between Los Angeles and San Francisco, and this was first proposed in 1996, okay, 28 years ago, with an initial estimated cost of $10 billion. And then time goes on and, you know, stops and starts and fits and. And so finally, the voters get to vote on it in 2008 on a ballot initiative and end up approving it stupidly with an estimated cost tag, price tag at that point of $29 billion. So it had grown by 200% in just 12 years. And so now we’re 16 years later, they still haven’t gotten the environmental permitting fully done for this 400 and 494 mile, rail route. Okay. They’ve gotten approvals for 412, I think, or 422 miles of the 494 mile route for environmental approvals. And the agency was boasting about that, just thrilled to death that they’re finally about 85% complete in the environmental permitting over just a span of 16 years. So they still have 72 miles of permitting to go. And they asked the legislature, they told the legislature that, well, you know, it’s already costing us about 100 billion now, and we’re going to need another 100 billion to get it all done. So you’re going to end up if you ever get it done, which I frankly don’t believe it will ever get completely built. 200 billion. Now you’re 200,000,000,028 years after you first told the legislature is going to cost you. So that’s a what? 2,000% inflation in the price tag. And, you know,
Irina Slav [00:23:26] lots. Of money.
David Blackmon [00:23:27] It’s a lot of money for a fast train when you can. Get on a plane. That actually flies at 400 miles an hour, compared to the 200 mile an hour train you want to build and get to San Francisco from Los Angeles twice as fast today. You can do that today.
Irina Slav [00:23:45] Yeah, but you get the machines. I expect the train would run on electricity. Where will these electricity come from? Solar panels.
David Blackmon [00:23:53] Well, I mean, California’s grid currently is about 50% natural gas, so there are a few emissions.
Irina Slav [00:23:59] Really?
David Blackmon [00:24:01] Yeah. And then they got wind and solar and. Anyway, so that’s the.
Video Speaker 1 [00:24:08] Right now that the Air is being Sucked out of the room. This is my this one project. How do we get the public on board?
Stuart Turley [00:24:16] This, David, is as much of a secret video I got funding wise. I think the.
Video speaker 2 [00:24:22] Only way you get the best work is by performing better. And I think the authority is performing better today than it was, and I think it will going forward. I think it’s the right thing to do for the future of the state in the country. And yes, it’s a challenge. And just like when I worked on the Bay bridge years ago and you’re stuck in the middle of a very tough project, it feels impossible until it’s not. And then you just grind. You do the work, you perform better, you deliver it.
David Blackmon [00:24:48] You know why it feels impossible to those members of the legislature? Because they’re currently trying to close a $73 billion budget deficit for this fiscal year alone.
Stuart Turley [00:25:01] That’s the same guy that did the bridge that was over budget underdelivered and terrible. But it’s not done until it’s done anyway. I thought it was.
David Blackmon [00:25:11] You hired the exact same guy to to try to finish this project. It’s incredible.
Stuart Turley [00:25:15] Anyway, I’m sorry, I thought that was a really good timing on that one as well. We got another, comment from my. Hey.
David Blackmon [00:25:24] Trains can scale better than aviation, not in America.
Stuart Turley [00:25:29] Not green bullet trains. So but I that was a great comment. Okay, David, we’re back to was it India?
CNN 1 [00:25:40] India? India?
David Blackmon [00:25:41] Yeah. See, India wants more gas too, and they’re going to spend $67 billion to modernize their natural gas delivery systems, which, you know, are kind of old and antiquated and inadequate. And and why are they doing that? Because they’re planning to build a lot more natural gas power plants in the future, as well as more coal plants. By the way, they’ve got Chinese companies in India right now building. I can’t remember how many new coal fired power plants do. So India is while, I guess, you know, they go to the WEF and Cop conferences and talk a good game. India is on the same path as China. Go into fossil fuels.
Irina Slav [00:26:20] Yeah, they’ve learned the lesson from them. All of the above is the right approach.
Stuart Turley [00:26:25] And, David, we’ve got another comment on this.
David Blackmon [00:26:30] Well, they they’ve shut down all but one.
Stuart Turley [00:26:34] With the Diablo Canyon. And they. Just And they just got an extension on it. And it I believe it offers nine point something to 10% of the power in, California, and they’d be dead meat without it. Great comment.
David Blackmon [00:26:52] Get your extended. It’s it’s permit. Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:26:56] Once the rails are laid in. Yeah. Oh, yeah.
David Blackmon [00:26:58] Well, it was hitting the rails late. I mean, because and it’s because the permitting is so difficult, as we see with this one. I mean, this is one 494 mile line, and we’re 28 years down the road already. One line.
Irina Slav [00:27:17] Yeah, but that’s because of the environmental assessment. Apparently they’re going around for each mile of the route examining it for, I don’t know, rare species, but I wanted to say about about, electric bullet trains in Europe. From my limited experience, they’re not cheap. They’re very convenient. They’re very fast where possible because you can do maximum speed, across your route. But they are not cheap. They may be green. They are green because they’re unlimited. But but cheap. They’re not.
Stuart Turley [00:27:55] Now Irina. They’re only green if you’re running, nuclear or renewables, which you’re not relying. Is that a fair statement?
Irina Slav [00:28:05] That’s a very fair statement. Thank you for making it, Stuart.
Stuart Turley [00:28:09] I just thought I just thought I’d ask.
Irina Slav [00:28:14] Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:28:16] Let’s see here. Here’s Tammy’s. But, let’s have a moment of silence in preparation for Tammy’s presentation in in Canada. Okay. Thank you. It’ll be a great one. Here’s a here’s another couple here. Net zero climate goal, guys. David and Irene, I want to ask your opinion. I’m seeing a ton of net zero goals not being made. Corporate America and a ton of people are backing off, and now they’re sliding it, back out. And this article was quite amazing when it started talking about, like, the EV cars and everybody else. Nobody can make any of these horrific goals.
Irina Slav [00:29:07] Because they’re impossible. But it took a lot of people. A lot of time to realize this. It seems they all bought the wishful thinking. They are both the easy revolution propaganda, and they had to see with their own eyes that it is not working. And start admitting that it’s not working because there is no way it could work. They did try everything. Including mandates.
Stuart Turley [00:29:41] You know, and and when we sit back and take a look at, Biden’s, budget. Holy smokes, Batman, I believe it’s $7.2 trillion. $5.3 trillion. What’s a few trillion between friends? And then 1.7 trillion or whatever the number is in tax increases? I’m like, this is just unsustainable. When you sit back and take a look at it and in this, there’s 40,000 new climate activists for Gen Z that they have in this budget. And it’s just like we do, you know, we could do with $50 billion to help our homeless, to help our, our great veterans. To help, you know, put power plants in Africa, but yet we’re going to put it on climate activism. I don’t get it. Yes.
David Blackmon [00:30:42] Yeah. And so that, I mean, the fact that the, the, timelines are sliding is entirely predictable and, yeah, you know, any anybody with any knowledge of how the markets work and the challenges and just, just in trying to obtain the mineral needs alone, knew these timelines would have to slide, and they’re going to slide a lot more than 2060. I mean, probably going to slide 100 years.Before. All is said and done and maybe longer than that, because you can’t do the the you can’t convert a $300 trillion energy system, global energy system in, in 25 years, which is, you know what, these ridiculous, timelines that have been set contemplate no energy transition in history has ever taken place in that kind of a time frame. And this one won’t either. And, as Dan Yergin has told me repeatedly, you know, the previous transitions have taken at least 100 years and you don’t end up with 100% transition at the you know, we’re still burning. We’re burning more wood now for energy, which is supposedly replaced by coal 500 years ago. We’re burning more wood now for electricity than we did 500 or than we ever had. And, same with coal cold demand, set new records last year. It’ll set another new record this year. And on and on and on, you know, so we’re going to need. Fossil fuels. The, you know, what we call fossil fuels for a long time to come.
Stuart Turley [00:32:14] This one, this map is the power plants associated with solar and wind. It’s. I think it’s 65,000. You can see that green everywhere on this. This one was oil and gas, which we know is 12,000. But we take a look at this one, I believe is nuclear. There’s only. So now there’s only 1450, and then this one is coal. Look at, coal in India and China and. .
David Blackmon [00:32:51] Europe
Stuart Turley [00:32:52] And Europe and I’m, I’m getting, numbers together. So when you take a look at coal, nuclear and, then you take a look at the number here. Let’s put the megawatt actually on the grids versus what is paid for. And then actually compare that to maintenance dollars. And you’re going to have some serious number crunching that is not adding up. So I hope that helps.
Irina Slav [00:33:24] Very informative.
David Blackmon [00:33:26] Yes. None of it adds up. I you know, I know. I had an interview with the CEO of of wood plc, the big, energy service company based in England. And, yeah, this was Friday when I interviewed him. And, it’ll be published later this week. He, was very adamant about the timeline question. You know that that’s the biggest challenge. And and like so many of the real leaders in these energy industries. He specifically talked about minerals, mining and acquisition as the single biggest challenge that’s going to cause these timelines to extend. So, I mean, that was a very timely article because it’s what the thinking you’re going to see, I suspect this week, Ceraweek is convening today as we’re recording this. And I suspect that’s going to be a pretty dominant topic, among others, at this week conference this year, because it’s just it’s becoming more and more obvious to everyone that that’s the really the biggest mountain you have to overcome to to get where these folks want to go.
Irina Slav [00:34:36] And there’s something else. All transitions until now have happened more or less more rather than less organically.
David Blackmon [00:34:44] Yes.
Irina Slav [00:34:45] A better fuel comes along, so you switch it because it’s better and the more of it you produce. The G20 comes, the more people can use it. This is not the case with this transition. Many commentators have pointed this out. This is the first energy transition that is happening under duress, basically. Yeah, most of us.
David Blackmon [00:35:07] And it’s an attempt to force markets to behave in ways markets would not naturally behave. And that’s always.
Irina Slav [00:35:14] Right. And they’re to force markets and human behavior on which markets, are based. And it has no way of working without mandates. But mandates could only work up to a limited extent because then the backlash would begin and so on and so forth.
David Blackmon [00:35:35] Another big concern he expressed in that interview, and I think it’s really a good one, and I think everyone needs to think about it, is when you try to subsidize, you know, force a subsidized transition, which is what we’re doing in the Western world and really in China and India as well. You run the big risk of. You know, we have these three chosen solutions when solar and electric vehicles that have been chosen by the globalists at the WEF and the UN and all these global conferences as the solutions where you run the big risk of choosing the wrong technology, right. What if these technologies aren’t the real solutions, which I think is becoming increasingly obvious?
CNN 1 [00:36:16] Yeah. They’re not.
David Blackmon [00:36:18] Well, then you’ve wasted trillions and trillions of dollars pursuing solutions that won’t work, that you can’t really scale up to meaningful levels. And, I think that, to me, is the biggest risk we face is we’re going to bankrupt our national economies, pursuing solutions that really can’t solve the problem.
Stuart Turley [00:36:39] Yeah. The deindustrialization of Germany, of the, of Europe and the US is underway. And I find it, hypocritical that the EIA two years ago said that natural gas was one of the biggest reasons we dropped 20% of our, our net, carbon net, output or our, carbon output. But yet they’re not allowing for any new natural gas plants up in the northeast. It’s kind of hypocritical.
David Blackmon [00:37:14] Well, the problem, of course, in the northeast, their big problem is they can’t get natural gas other than to import it from other countries. Because New York State won’t let anyone build a pipeline to New England from the Marcellus Shale. And you have this perfect storm of stupidity happening up there that prevents them from pursuing a real solution.
Stuart Turley [00:37:36] Perfect storm of stupidity. That sounds like a new book.
David Blackmon [00:37:42] I think I. Might have to write a column with that. Title.
Irina Slav [00:37:45] It’s a great way of putting it. Yeah, it is a perfect storm of stupidity and incompetence.
David Blackmon [00:37:51] And incompetence.
Stuart Turley [00:37:53] Oh. How fun. Well, I’ll tell you, what’s coming around the corner next week. Do you see, Irina.
Irina Slav [00:38:03] Of Doom in. In what sense? I expect more stupid news and more idiotic statements from transition. You know, leaders know I’ve come to expect everything, and nobody’s challenging them openly when they make these statements. This is what kills me. That really, I was so afraid to challenge fantasy that is being presented as fact. So I expect more of this from Ceraweek.
David Blackmon [00:38:33] Yeah. I think you’re right. I think you’re. Right.
Irina Slav [00:38:35] Some big oil.
David Blackmon [00:38:39] Yeah, like I agree with Irina. I mean, Jennifer Granholm is speaking at Ceraweek. So we’ll get a lot of, of exactly what Irina is expecting from her speech. And, but for me personally, I’m really looking forward to, some, some more interviews. I’ve got a couple more set up there in Ceraweek and, and then next week, I’ve got, interviews with Chris ride at Liberty Energy where which is, you know, he’s always fun to talk to. And Michelle Manak, who is the, CEO of the global coal, trade association, an incredibly smart, great spokesperson for the coal industry to talk about, where she thinks coal’s future is headed. And you have to admit, with the way demand continues to increase for coal. The coal industry has a bright future ahead of it. Yeah, and we ought to be spending some of these subsidy dollars to find ways to take more of the emissions out of coal so we can continue to exploit, you know, the biggest, truly the biggest energy resource we have available to us globally.
Irina Slav [00:39:50] And we know.
David Blackmon [00:39:51] Be the smart and reliable 24 seven power generation.
Stuart Turley [00:39:54] Yes. You know, David, I can’t wait to hear your, Chris. Wright. I was fortunate enough to have, Chris Wright in doomburg, and I’m releasing that one on Wednesday. Yeah. And we talked about, and ending energy poverty. Chris, Wright, has a wonderful new, report out that I believe. I mean, he is such a cool cat. Chris has really, shaped how I’ve, done my podcast over all these years. It’s about, ending energy poverty. And I guarantee you, you’re going to have a van tastic discussion with him.
David Blackmon [00:40:38] Yes. Oh, yeah. I mean, I’ve interviewed him before. I wrote a cover story for a magazine about him several years ago, and he’s fantastic.
Stuart Turley [00:40:45] And Peter brings up the great point. It’s not just the minerals, it’s the process energy. Human cost for mining low grade ores. Chris. Wright. Zero poverty by 2050 is much more measurable. Peter. Great. Much more.
Irina Slav [00:41:00] Interesting. The energy poverty problem is much more pressing then whatever the net zero financing. So telling us is important.
Stuart Turley [00:41:09] And.
Irina Slav [00:41:10] And I them.
Stuart Turley [00:41:12] In my interview with Jay and, you know, the head of the African Energy chamber, I absolutely loved from the standpoint that he’s standing up for Africa first to end energy poverty. And I’m going to just talk about capitalism here for a second. We could make more money as the U.S. if we exported our technology, our nuclear technology, our natural gas technology, and built up markets in Africa and make big, high paying jobs in Africa and then sell things over there to the world, could grow economically if we end energy poverty. Sorry for getting on my rant this morning.
Irina Slav [00:41:59] Yeah, but economic growth is no longer trendy. We’re talking about degrowth because we don’t need it. I’m writing a subset about this for Wednesday.
David Blackmon [00:42:09] Oh, I can’t wait to read it.
Irina Slav [00:42:11] Write it.
Stuart Turley [00:42:13] And, Irina, I want to give you a shout out again. I’ve said this before, but I get my Irina Slav fix every time I listen to one of your sub stacks, because you read the sub stack in for all of our followers today it’s Irina slav.substack.com, and listen to Irina as she reads these because it is a real treat. You understand her sense of humor?
Irina Slav [00:42:43] Think me. Dont Hype me.
Stuart Turley [00:42:44] I have no sorry. It’s too bad.
David Blackmon [00:42:47] It’s absolutely true. The the audio recordings you do with your stories really enhances that whole experience. Because, you know, sometimes just reading your. You’re so witty, sometimes just reading it, you miss some of it. But if you listen to the audio as well, you get the. Full. Impact of the stories and they’re always hilarious.
Stuart Turley [00:43:09] And Irina, if I read it, my combination of oaky text, nobody would understand it. And but you really your humor brings out.
Irina Slav [00:43:20] Thank you. Thank you. You’re very nice, both of you. Thanks.
Stuart Turley [00:43:26] All right. Hey, next week, we’ve got a great show lined up. What’s the name? Curmudgeon. What’s the name of it?
David Blackmon [00:43:34] He has no idea what you’re talking about.
Stuart Turley [00:43:35] What a next week all the email trails coming back and forth was. What we’re going to talk about next week with curmudgeon. Curmudgeon. Something no.
Irina Slav [00:43:45] Glimmer Guild.
Stuart Turley [00:43:47] Thank you.
Irina Slav [00:43:48] Ryan money. Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:43:49] Okay
Irina Slav [00:43:50] You know, carbon tax rebates in Germany. So we’re going to talk about carbon taxes in general. And there’s a wonderful idea that the Germans, had yet again, on how to, entice people to be more open to changes in lifestyle related to the energy transition.
Stuart Turley [00:44:10] So how do. You.
Irina Slav [00:44:11] And Tammy is going to be here?
Stuart Turley [00:44:13] And Tammy’s going to be here. And how do you pronounce that again?
Irina Slav [00:44:17] Clima guilt.
Stuart Turley [00:44:18] Claim again. I’m I’m over here going, okay.
Irina Slav [00:44:22] Honey. Yeah.
Stuart Turley [00:44:22] Okay. Got it. I think that’s fantastic. And, so we’ll get Tammy back, and we’ve got several other executives that were lining up, as well to be a guest on here. We need to work on Irina is Okie in Texas. Y’all would be a great start. Nathan. Where you go now? All right.
David Blackmon [00:44:44] Hey, y’all, we fixing to go.
Irina Slav [00:44:46] Okay. I love southern dialects. Okay. Have a great day. Have a great week.
David Blackmon [00:44:55] All right y’all, we’re fixing. get out of here
Irina Slav [00:44:59] With my y’all.
Stuart Turley [00:45:03] Thank you to everybody that was listening live. And do all those that are listening on our podcast channel, energy realities on wherever you can get your fix. And we got one more here.
David Blackmon [00:45:17] Inconvenient doubts by Joanne Marcotti. A book. Okay. Okay. I’m going to go find it right now.
Irina Slav [00:45:24] Great recommendation. Thank you.
Stuart Turley [00:45:26] All right. Bye, guys.
Irina Slav [00:45:29] Bye bye. Have a great day.
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