173,500 payroll jobs added on average per month in 12 months, instead of 242,000, but above 2018-2019 average of 171,900: preliminary annual benchmark revisions.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics today released its preliminary estimate of the upcoming annual benchmark revision due in February, of the number of nonfarm jobs created over the 12-month period from April 2023 through March 2024.
The BLS today downwardly revised by 818,000 the number of nonfarm jobs created in the 12-month period through March 2024, to 2.082 million, from the prior figure of 2.90 million.
This revised figure averages out to 173,500 payroll jobs added per month during the 12-month period, down from the unrevised average of 242,000 per month, but higher than average job creation during the prepandemic two years of 2018 and 2019 (+171,900 per month on average), reflecting a labor market that has normalized to prepandemic Good Times growth.
Up-revisions: Job creation in five major categories was revised up, led by private education and health services (+87,000) and Transportation and warehousing (+56,400).
Down-revisions: Job creation in other categories was revised down, led by Professional and business services (-358,000) and Leisure and hospitality (-150,000).
| 12-Month Benchmark Revisions of Jobs Created through March 2024 | |
| Private education and health services | 87,000 |
| Transportation and warehousing | 56,400 |
| Other services | 21,000 |
| Utilities | 1,700 |
| Government | 1,000 |
| Mining and logging | -11,000 |
| Wholesale trade | -33,600 |
| Construction | -45,000 |
| Information | -68,000 |
| Financial activities | -76,000 |
| Trade, transportation, and utilities | -104,000 |
| Manufacturing | -115,000 |
| Retail trade | -129,000 |
| Leisure and hospitality | -150,000 |
| Professional and business services | -358,000 |
Each year, the BLS benchmarks its employment estimates in Current Employment Statistics (CES) – which produces the nonfarm payroll jobs data from the Establishment Survey in the jobs report – to state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that most employers are required to file.
The Establishment survey data in the monthly jobs report will not be updated with these preliminary revisions. Instead, it will be updated with the final revisions that include monthly details, to be released in February. We will cover that as we have in prior years with a chart with two lines, one color for the new revised data and another color for the old data. Final revisions have differed significantly from preliminary estimates in the past.
In prior years, final benchmark revisions released in the respective Februarys:
For 2021 and 2022, final benchmark revisions, in total +840,000
For 2023, final benchmark revisions: -359,000
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