The Opec+ alliance will meet tomorrow at 14:00 CET to discuss whether and how to amend the group’s production quotas from next month. The quotas were reduced to 7.05mn b/d below an October 2018 baseline this month from 7.13mn b/d in February, excluding the extra 1mn b/d Saudi cut.
All options remain on the table and a consensus has yet to be reached, delegates said.
Tomorrow’s meeting comes against a backdrop of rising oil prices, with Brent crude prices remaining above $60/bl since early February. After yesterday’s Joint Technical Committee (JTC) meeting, which studied market conditions, Opec’s secretary-general Mohammed Barkindo highlighted an improving outlook for the global oil market with demand on course to grow by 5.8mn b/d to around 96mn b/d this year.
“The days of GDP and oil demand figures being in the red because of the pandemic-induced shock appear to be behind us,” Barkindo added. But he continued to urge caution as a result of the continued uncertainties surrounding the ongoing impact of the virus, as more resistant Covid-19 strains emerge.
The murky oil demand outlook divided the Opec+ group’s production proposals in previous meetings. The group made a compromise in January by allowing Russia and Kazakhstan to increase production by a combined 75,000 b/d in February and again in March, while Saudi Arabia pledged to make a voluntary cut of 1mn b/d below its 9.119mn b/d quota during those months.
Russia and Kazakhstan are widely expected to push for further relaxations, while Iraqi oil minister Ihsan Ismael previously said he expects the Saudis to announce an end to the additional cut. Opec+ could sanction an increase of between 1mn b/d and 1.5mn b/d from April, including the return of Saudi barrels, two delegates told Argus.
Ismael met with his Russian counterpart Nikolai Shulginov, Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak, and Lukoil president Vagit Alekperov in Moscow today to discuss co-operation in the oil and gas sector as well as the Opec+ agreement.
