WTI has crossed $100 as the market begins to price the scenario Goldman Sachs flagged months ago: not just a constrained Strait of Hormuz, but a simultaneous threat to the Red Sea exit that Saudi Arabia has used as its remaining seaborne outlet.

Brent settled above $101 on Wednesday, September 9, and WTI followed through the $100 level on Thursday morning in a sharp rally. Physical benchmarks had already been there. Dated Brent has held above $100 since September 3. Murban, DME Oman, the OPEC basket, and the Indian basket were already trading over that threshold. Futures are […]

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Chinese refiners are paying record premiums for Russian ESPO crude as cheap sanctioned barrels from Iran dry up and Venezuelan oil moves onto the open market.

November-loading ESPO from Kozmino is trading at more than $7 per barrel over Brent, with some offers to independent refiners reaching $10, according to traders cited by Bloomberg and OilPrice.com. That is a sharp reversal from the deep discounts China extracted for years. ESPO loads on Russia’s Pacific coast and reaches Chinese ports in less […]

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Will Iraq leave OPEC, or will OPEC allow Iraq to double exports within six years?

Iraq is pushing aggressively to more than double its oil production capacity, targeting 8–10 million barrels per day (bpd) within six years—up from roughly 4 million bpd before the recent Iran-related regional conflict disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping. On August 21, 2026, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi announced the goal at the Baghdad Dialog conference and […]

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So Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz, Let’s See What Bessent’s Economic Isolation of Iran Could Look Like

As the Iran-U.S. conflict grinds toward the six-month mark in mid-August 2026, Tehran continues to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz—the critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG once flowed—while the United States maintains a naval blockade on Iranian ports and escalates economic pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled […]

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