By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Home prices in the 20 metropolitan areas of the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index saw the smallest month-to-month increase since the decline five months ago, continuing a trend of deceleration. The data released today for “June” are three-month moving averages of sales entered into the public records in April, May, and June.
Per metro, home prices rose month-to-month in 19 of the 20 metros. The exception was the five-county San Francisco Bay Area, where prices of single-family houses were roughly unchanged, and condo prices dipped. In Portland, the month-to-month price increase slowed to just 0.1%, in Tampa, the price increase slowed to 0.2%. This price dynamic comes as demand has plunged because prices are too high, and supply has surged.
Prices below 2022 highs in 7 Most Splendid Housing Bubbles (month of peak):
San Francisco Bay Area: -7.0% (May 2022)
Phoenix: -4.2% (June 2022)
Seattle: -4.0% (May 2022)
Portland: -2.9% (May 2022)
Denver: -2.6% (May 2022)
Dallas: -1.9% (June 2022)
Las Vegas: -0.4% (July 2022)
The most splendid housing bubbles by metropolitan area.
San Francisco Bay Area single family houses: the San Francisco metro in the Case-Shiller Index covers five counties (San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Mateo) of the nine-county Bay Area.
Month to month: unchanged
Year over year: +4.3%.
From the peak in May 2022: -7.0%.
San Francisco Bay Area condos: Condos are a big part of the market in the Bay Area, particularly in the city of San Francisco.
Month to month: -0.2%.
Year over year: +1.0%.
From the peak in May 2022: -7.5%.
Just a notch above May-August 2018.
Seattle metro:
Month to month: +0.6%.
Year over year: +6.7%.
From the peak in May 2022: -4.0%.
Phoenix metro:
Month to month: +0.4%.
Year over year: +3.7%.
From the peak in June 2022: -4.2%.
Portland metro:
Month to month: +0.1%.
Year over year: +0.8%.
From the peak in May 2022: -2.9%.
Denver metro:
Month to month: +0.3%.
Year over year: +1.9%.
From the peak in May 2022: -2.6%.
Dallas metro:
Month to month: +0.4%.
Year over year: +2.3%.
From the peak in June 2022: -1.9%.
Las Vegas metro:
Month to month: +1.2%.
Year over year: +8.6%.
From the peak in July 2022: -1.3%.
Tampa metro:
Month to month: +0.2%.
Year over year: +3.1%.
New high, +1.5% from July 2022 high.
San Diego metro:
Month to month: +0.7%.
Year over year: +8.7%.
New high, +5.0% from May 2022 high.
Los Angeles metro
Month to month: +0.6%.
Year over year: +8.2%.
New high, +5.0% from May 2022 high.
Washington D.C. metro:
Month to month: +0.6%.
Year over year: +6.0%.
New high, +6.7% from June 2022 high.
Boston metro:
Month to month: +0.7%.
Year over year: +6.6%.
New high, +7.5% from June high 2022.
Miami metro:
Month to month: +0.7%.
Year over year: +6.9%.
New high, +8.1% from July 2022 high.
New York metro:
Month to month: +0.6%.
Year over year: +9.0%.
New high, +12.5% from June 2022 high.
To qualify for the Most Splendid Housing Bubbles, the metro must have experienced home-price inflation since 2000 of 200% or more at the peak. The indices were set at 100 for the year 2000. Today’s index value for San Diego of 449 is up 349% since 2000, making San Diego the most splendid housing bubble on this list, ahead of Los Angeles (447) and Miami (443).
The remaining 6 of the 20 metros in the Case-Shiller index (Chicago, Charlotte, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Detroit, and Cleveland) had much less home-price inflation since 2000 despite the price spikes in recent years, and don’t qualify for this list.
Chicago metro has an index value of 209 and is up by 109% from the year 2000, and is therefore far from qualifying for this list. But the near-50% price spike since the Fed started its money-printing binge in March 2020 has been splendid in its own right, and the metro is so huge – eight counties: Cook, DeKalb, Du Page, Grundy, Kane, Kendal, McHenry, and Will – that it deserves a place:
Month to month: +1.0%
Year over year: +7.0%.
New high, +10.8% from July 2022 high.
Methodology. The Case-Shiller Index uses the “sales pairs” method, comparing sales in the current month to when the same houses were sold previously. Price changes are weighted based on how long ago the prior sale occurred. Adjustments are made for home improvements and other factors (37-page methodology).
It’s just home price inflation. By measuring how many dollars it takes to buy the same house over time, the Case-Shiller index is a measure of home-price inflation. San Diego had 349% home price inflation since 2000. Over the same period, consumer price inflation, as measured by CPI, amounted to 86%.
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