Toronto condos drop to 28-month low, Vancouver house prices -4% from peak in 2022 but condos near high. Calgary houses set new highs.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
House prices in Canada were unchanged in February compared to January, seasonally adjusted, having fallen by 15.6% from the peak in February 2022, according to the Home Price Benchmark Index for single family houses by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) today. Compared to a year ago, it ticked up 1.6%.
In dollar terms, the Benchmark Index for single-family houses has fallen by $145,500 from the peak in February 2022, to $788,800, just above where it had first been in August 2021 (all amounts in Canadian dollars). But there was a wide divergence between the major markets, and between houses and condos in some markets. And we’ll get to them.
Home sales dipped 3.1% in February from January, seasonally adjusted. Compared to the collapsed levels in February a year ago, they rose by 19.7%, but were still 5% lower than the 10-year average for February.
New listings ticked up 1.6% in February from January, even as sales fell 3.1%. And supply ticked up to 3.8 months of sales.
The Bank of Canada has tightened policy to deal with inflation. In July 2023, it hiked its overnight rate to 5.0% and has been in no rush to cut. For part of last year, it looked like inflation had been sort of vanquished, and rate-cut bets became all the rage. But late last year, inflation served up some nasty surprises – driven by housing costs, including a massive spike in the rent CPI.
The five-year government bond yield, which is crucial for Canadian mortgages, and which had dropped to 3.17% by the end of December, has since then risen to 3.67%.
Under its QT program, the BoC has so far shed 46% of its securities at the peak. This amounts to having shed 59% of the securities it had added during its pandemic QE.
Home Prices by Market.
Greater Toronto Area, single-family houses: The MLS Home Price Benchmark Index for single-family houses rose 1.1% in February from January, to $1,302,000 seasonally adjusted.
Compared to the peak in February 2022, the index is down by 16.4%, or by $255,000, and is just above where it had first been in September 2021. Compared to February 2023, the index is up 2.1%.
Greater Toronto Area, Condos: Prices fell 0.8% in February from January, to $681,700, down by 0.8% from February 2023, and down by 12.7% from the peak in February 2022, and the lowest since October 2021:
Hamilton-Burlington metro (part of the “Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area”): The single-family benchmark price rose by 0.9% in February from January, to $882,700 seasonally adjusted.
From peak in February 2022: -21.9% or -$247,600
Year-over-year: +0.9%
Hamilton-Burlington metro condos:
Month-to-month: -2.1%
From peak in April 2022: -15.8%
Year-over-year: +0.7%
Greater Vancouver single-family: The benchmark price for single-family houses dipped 0.1% for the month, to $1,986,700 seasonally adjusted:
From peak in April 2022: -4.2% or -$76,900
Year-over-year: +7.5%
Greater Vancouver condos:
Month-to-month: +1.2%%
Year-over-year: +5.8%
Victoria: The single-family benchmark price fell by 1.1% for the month to $1,125,100 seasonally adjusted:
From peak in April 2022: -11.2% or -$142,200
Year-over-year: +0.7%
Ottawa: The benchmark price of single-family houses fell by 1.2% for the month, to $708,800, below where they’d first been in March 2021:
From peak in March 2022: -11.5% or -$91,900
Year-over-year: +3.7%.
Calgary: The single-family benchmark price rose by 0.7% for the month to a new high of $658,900 and was up 12.2% year-over-year:
Montreal: The single-family benchmark price edged up 0.2% for the month to $604,700 seasonally adjusted.
From peak in May 2022: -5.0% or -$31,900
Year-over-year: +3.4%.
Halifax-Dartmouth: The single-family benchmark price rose 0.5%, to $538,200; in essence unchanged for the past four months.
From peak in April 2022: -4.2% or -$19,200
Year-over-year: +5.3%.
Quebec City Area: The single-family benchmark price jumped 2.9% for the month, to $395,000, after having dropped by 3.9% in the prior month. It was up by 6.9% year-over-year:
