Daily Standup Top Stories
Where’s the Glut? Says ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance
In the ever-volatile world of oil markets, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance has recently challenged the prevailing narratives of an impending oil surplus. Speaking at a recent industry event, Lance questioned the notion of a glut, […]
Occidental CEO Hollub Sees Tight Oil Price Range Through 2026 – But what about Natural Gas we ask?
In a market still reeling from geopolitical tensions and shifting global demand patterns, Occidental Petroleum CEO Vicki Hollub delivered a sobering yet strategic outlook at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London this week. Hollub projected […]
Fossil Fuels Will Power the AI Revolution, Saudi Aramco CEO Says – So we ask, who do you invest?
In a bold assertion that underscores the ongoing tension between global energy transitions and surging technological demands, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser declared that fossil fuels, rather than renewables, will be the primary force driving […]
JP Morgan announced today that they will make direct equity investments of up to $10 billion into strategic industries that support the United States’ economic security.
In a landmark announcement today, October 13, 2025, JPMorgan Chase unveiled its Security and Resiliency Initiative, committing to facilitate and finance up to $1.5 trillion over the next decade in industries vital to the United […]
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
00:16 – Where’s the Glut? Says ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance
04:15 – Occidental CEO Hollub Sees Tight Oil Price Range Through 2026 – But what about Natural Gas we ask?
07:22 – Fossil Fuels Will Power the AI Revolution, Saudi Aramco CEO Says – So we ask, who do you invest?
09:54 – JP Morgan announced today that they will make direct equity investments of up to $10 billion into strategic industries that support the United States’ economic security.
15:10 – Market Update
17:13 – Outro
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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Michael Tanner: [00:00:00] There is no oil glut, according to Conico Phillips CEO Ryan Lance. We’ll dive into that next on the energy newsbeat stand up. [00:00:08][8.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:00:16] Where’s the glut? Says Coniko Phillips CEO, Ryan Lance. This is a really interesting article. Ryan Lance recently sort of came out and has kind of challenged the prevailing narratives of what people are really calling this impending oil surplus. He was at an event, and really what he did, and I’ll kind of read straight from the article here, speaking at a recent industry event, Lance questioned the notion of a glut, emphasizing that global oil demand continues to grow steadily. He argued that the market is tighter than current sentiment suggests, pointing out that the key challenge lies in sourcing conventional oil supplies in the coming years. He was also optimistic that oil prices could rebound to the 70, 75 per barrel range as quote unquote the market rebalances from any short-term supplies. These comments were actually made about two days ago, which sort of is in opposition of a lot of the sentiment that’s out there right now. I mean, you specifically talk about things that have happened both at the IEA and internally. So think about the IEA has anticipated that world oil supply will rise by about 3 million barrels per day to 106.1 million barrels per day in 2025, leading to a quote, huge oversupply that is causing theoretically these prices to fall as where we stand today. We’ve also seen JP Morgan research, who I tend to kind of, I don’t want to say follow blindly, but they tend to be kind of the most accurate and I think the most paired back. Obviously, we’re not a Goldman Sachs company here. But JP Morgan research forecasts Brent crew to average about 20, 66 dollars per barrel in 2025, which drops to 58 in 2026, mainly driven again by the supply demand imbalances and trade frictions. You know, we’ve seen OPEC has continued to maintain this bullish stance. They’ve kind of doubled down on their expectations of strong oil demand. And I mean, again, I think that we’re we’re seeing that what you see out of OPEC is they want to say demand is strong so they can continue to raise oil production without severely impacting prices. And we’ve also seen the EIA, which is the U.S. Energy Information Administration, has has sort of aligned with what the IEA is saying. They Are forecasting global liquid fuels production increased by 2.7 million barrels, so a little less than that 3 billion barrels. And they’ve put US crude production to average about 3.5 million barrels per day. You know, we we have seen steady production refinery demand, which there is strength to bite these gluts. You know, on a long-term view, what Ryan Lance is doing is you have to put this into context. He just laid off 25% of his workforce because they overspent on some acquisitions, they didn’t control cost as much. So the real question is why is he coming out and saying this? Who’s he talking to? Who’s his audience? His audience isn’t his the analysts that are covering his stock. They they’re not gonna listen to this, but oh well, Ryan Lance thinks oil’s gonna be 70 to 75 dollars. What he’s trying to do, in my opinion, is he’s trying to signal to his employees that we have a bullish view in the future and this 25% layoff is done. Don’t you don’t need to walk around the hall scared that we’re gonna come out and do another 10%. You don’t need to worry about all this. We are still bullish on oil and gas. And it’s more of a signal to his company that hey, we’re still gonna keep at this. We’re not just gonna pack it in and go home. And obviously, no one just wants to pack it in and go home, but I think he’s dealing with a very nervous company base who just saw 25% of their friends go home and are wondering, are we next? And I think for now, the answer is no. Now, do I think 70 to 75 per barrel in the next 18 months is legitimate? That’s the top side, in my opinion. I I think, you know, I think what he’s saying is is is correct on some levels. The market is not in a huge surplus, like what the IEA says. You know, I I think again, the answer usually always when you when you when you sort of plot on a scatter plot all of these different theses. You’ve got where, you know, the IEA and and EIA are, you’ve got where oil companies are. It probably lands somewhere in the middle. So Ryan Lance, he’s a big believer in in oil prices at 70 to 75. [00:04:14][238.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:04:15] But what’s funny is Vicky Hollub, who we’re about to talk out about next, is the opposite. Occidental CEO Vicky Holub sees tight oil price range through 2026. But what about natural gas? And so, in sort of contrast to the first segment there, you know, Vicky Hollow was was basically at the wasn’t at the same conference, it was at the Energy Intelligence Forum, which is held in London each week or each year. She had a pretty sobering outlook on the oil and gas business relative to where pricing is going to go. She basically said that there’s a range that she sees of 58 to 62. Through the end of 2026, she described that range as tight, even amid sub persistent supply constraints and what are sort of they’re saying is balanced demand. It’s pretty interesting that she would come out and say this. I think to be honest, she’s probably making the opposite virtue signal. I think that Occidental has has yet to really gone through a big wave of layoffs. They’re one of the few what we would call larger cap companies. We’ve seen Exxon Chevron and Conical Phillips attempt to theoretically right size their business. And so now the funny part is Oxy, who’s kind of in that tier two range when it comes to large cap companies, you know, they’re probably next on the list. I mean, their acquisition of of Crown Quest in 2023 by all accounts is going fairly poorly. They’ve kind of loaded themselves up with debt and maybe acquired some locations that aren’t maybe necessarily panning out. So I think it’s interesting that she’s coming out and now trying to put a bearish spin on this, probably trying to prep her employees for a potential layoff, whether it’s, you know, whether it’s it’s large, small, anywhere in between, you know, and her forecast really sort of aligns with what we talked about in the last segment, the IEA and the EIA relative to where it’s going. Now, I think the interesting part is okay, what what does that mean for natural gas? Because she also touched on natural gas. She’s a big believer in the AI boom. She continues to believe that that dry gas production will continue to increase. And and her comments specifically on natural gas has specifically again to do with AI data centers and electrifications, the forecast that they are seeing internally on top of what’s also being spoken about externally, is that you know, you could see data center could account for 10% of electricity by 2030. And you’ve got, you know, hyperscalers like Google and and and and Amazon continuing to ramp up gas fire generation to meet the demand. So I think what she’s signaling is that yes, we’re heavy into into oil, but if we are to make a move, we are interesting and interested in moving into natural gas. And I think if you’re an investor and you’re looking to, well, where do I sort of begin to allocate my money? You know, I think you have to take a hard look at natural gas and say, okay, is there some natural gas players out there that is worth allocating to? I think there’s a few, and we would highly again recommend doing your research. We’re not an investment company here, but you know, kind of the tale of two cities over here. You’ve got Ryan Lance on one end and Vicky Hollibon another. Who, and who would have thought I would agree with Vicky Hollow? That’s the funny part. I agree with Vicky Holob, not Ryan Lance. It’s, you know, we will write this down in history. October 15th, 2025, Michael Tanner agrees with Vicky Holub. [00:07:22][186.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:07:22] Fossil fuels will power the AI revolution, according to Saudi Aramco CEO. To kind of piggyback off the last article we talked about, you know, we did see in a in a presentation given by CEO Amin Nasser, who’s the CEO of Saudi Aramco. He actually declared that fossil fuels rather than renewables will be the driving force behind the electricity surge needed for artificial intelligence and electric vehicles. He spoke at an industry conference in October 13th of 2025. He criticized the slow pace of renewable adoption, stating, well, the icons of the transition are still clearly stuck in first gear hydrocarbons are largely carrying the extra load. He also further emphasized that current global oil shift is not a true energy transition. It’s an energy addition where fossil fuels are stepping into the meet the overwhelming demand. He also highlighted a demand tsunami from AI data centers and EVs, which is straining power systems worldwide, which is also prompting a lot of EU governments to reconsider stringent climate goals. This this comes amid Aramco’s own strategic adjustments, delaying three domestic chemical plants in favor of Asian expansion as the company navigates lower oil prices and hefty dividend obligations to the Saudi government. So I I think what you know what he is trying to show is that hey, we we understand that the demand is going to come from this AI data centers. Obviously, we’re primarily in the oil space. They have some natural gas production. I mean, they have a lot of natural gas production, don’t get me wrong. But he I think what he’s showing is that fossil fuels will and continue to fill the demand hole or or the supply hole that is needed to get these data centers up and running. And he’s not saying anything too crazy. I think if anybody listens to this show, you would you would understand this that yes, I mean, it’s there’s no wind farm big enough, and there’s no solar farm big enough that’s gonna be able to power you know, all of these hyperscalers data center. You’re gonna need gas turbines, you’re gonna need fossil fuel backup. And aligning yourself with that movement, I think makes it extremely, extremely important. You know, I I do think from this standpoint of trying to figure out exactly where to position capital relative to this. I I would be interested, kind of your guys’ thoughts as you listen to this. I I do think that you know it’s obviously in Saudi Aramco’s best interest to continue to pump. I mean, again, they they they want. They want high oil prices and high oil production. I mean, that’s the the golden goose for them. So I don’t necessarily think they’re in this spot where they just want to drive prices down relative to their other players. So I think it’s going to be very interesting. [00:09:53][150.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:09:54] But I think this next one is super interesting. JP Morgan announced today that they will make direct equity investments up to 10 billion into strategic industries that support the United States economic security. Kind of following up with what, you know, kind of all of these articles leading on to each other on October 13th of 2025. JP Morgan unveiled its security and resiliency initiative, which in which they are committed to facilitate and finance up to 1.5 trillion over the next decades to vital industries within the United States, national economic security as part of its sweeping down the banking giant will make direct equity and capital investments of up to 10 billion dollars in select US-based companies. These initiatives target key sectors, including supply chain, advanced manufacturing, energy independence and resilience, defense, aerospace, and frontier technologies, areas that are designed to reduce America’s dependence on foreign sources for critical resources and technologies. CEO of JP Morgan, Jamie Diamond emphasized the urgency of accelerating these investments into these strategic industries to modernize the infrastructure, fortify supply chains, and promote innovation. You know, this it’s highly, highly, highly, highly, highly interesting that they’re going to do this. And I’ve always been a big fan of Jamie Diamond relative to some of I think the other CEOs, because I think he calls it like it is. He was the one CEO that was willing to stand up and basically say, we will need fossil fuels, your your demands on oil and gas to sh shut it down or doing a bad, bad service to the oil and gas business. So I think this is a great time. Now it remains to be seen where exactly do they put this money? My guess is they’re not going to be putting this money in upstream oil and gas companies. I think this is going to go to midstream. I think it’s going to go to downstream. I think it’s going to go to companies building generation for AI data centers. I think that’s where you’re going to see the majority of the energy infrastructure or this energy investment go. I don’t think all of a sudden now you’re going to see a private equity company that gets spun up that’s backed by JP Morgan. Maybe, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say it’s probably not the case. But what I think this is doing is going ahead and putting a their foot forward and saying this is where we stand. And what’s interesting is their own shares rose by about 3%, which basically shows that there’s some optimism for this. So extremely interesting. And I think this could, you know. Boost some some some valuations. You’ll probably see some ETF boosts, whether or not these equity investments go to upstream companies. It’s going to help the overall energy industry as a whole. And I mean we really re-nate right now. We’re, you know,. [00:12:23][148.9]
[00:12:23] Let’s jump over quickly and talk about oil prices. But before we do that, Let’s pay the bills. [00:12:28][4.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:12:29]As always guys, the news and analysis you just heard. Is brought to you by world’s greatest website, www.energynewsbeat.com. Stu and the team do a tremendous job making sure that website stays up to speed. Everything you need to know to be the tip of the spear when it comes to the energy and the oil and gas business. Go ahead and hit the links in the description below for all links to the timestamps, links to articles, and specifically subscribe to the show on YouTube, subscribe to this show on Apple iTunes. Give us a follow there. Subscribe to our show on Spotify. Please leave comments there and subscribe to our sub stack, www.energynewsbeat.substack.com. That’s probably the best place to support the show. Stu does a great job of releasing two to three articles a week that really encompass the big themes that are going on. We also drop all of our podcasts there, which give a little bit of a breakdown. We just had a great, great podcast. So I highly, highly recommend everybody subscribe to the energy newsbeat.sub stack.com We’d also like to thank friends of the show Reese Energy Consulting for supporting the show guys. Reese Energy Consulting is the foremost midstream expert. Guys, if you had at all. Are dealing with issues in the midstream space, whether you’re an upstream company and need help with your first purchaser’s contract or renegotiating your gas contracts or figuring out where you’re gonna tie in your next pad because you’ve got multiple different options and you’re trying to break it all down. Reese Energy Consulting can help. If you’re in the mainstream space, I need an extra pair of hands, need some permitting or regulation help, or need some red team analysis on a final investment decision, guys. They have the team that can help you check out ReeseEnergyConsulting.com They have clients everywhere and all throughout the country from two people in a garage all the way up to the largest publicly traded companies in the world. So if you’re wondering, are you a good fit for them? The answer is yes. ReeseEnergyConsulting.com And finally guys, investinoil.energynewsbeat.com We are coming up on the end of the year. And I promise you guys, you do not wanna be paying money to Uncle Sam. You wanna keep as much money in your pocket. You wanna diversify your portfolio a little bit and you want to get some dividends. You can do that by investing in oil and gas. Check out investinoil.energynewsbeat.com Fill out our portfolio survey and our tax calculator. And guess what, you guys, you guys are gonna get and get a nice ebook that tells you here’s what you should look for when you invest in oil and gas. And also figure out what your tax burden is and figure out how much you might save relative to your tax burn if you did invest in Oil and Gas, guys. We practice what we preach here, guys, we do this stuff ourselves. Investin oil.energy newsbeat .com Don’t give your money to Uncle Sam. Figure out and find out if oil and gas investing is for you. Depending on if you qualify, we will, again, send you all that information and we may or may not point you in the right direction. Again, investin oil.energynewsbeat.com. [00:15:08][159.1]
Michael Tanner: [00:15:10] All right. So it’s been a tough couple days for oil prices, guys. Oil prices, we record this on the 15th at about noon here. You’re looking at 5830 for WTI and natural gasses has slightly fallen below three at about $2.99. I think it’s pretty interesting. Where things have have have gone from this. I mean, we all know what happened on on Friday with the the the escalation of the Chinese trade tensions and also the de-escalation of the the Israel Gaza war. So I I think from from this standpoint, I think it becomes where is the sentiment to drive prices up? Where is that going to go? I I think the, you know, from a Chinese perspective, we saw the US sector US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson. He said that the meeting between the US and Chinese leaders remains on track to be held in South Korea late October. And he is his response is we have substantially de escalated. Now the question is okay where the market is still recovered if I think the overall markets have have come up. We did see Chinese crude oil imports rise about 3.9 percentage points from a year earlier up to 11.5 million barrels per day. You know, we’re we’re still seeing high OPEC global demand. You know, I think it’s pretty interesting. We also did see a monthly report on Monday from OPEC which implied that the oil market would see much smaller supply deficit in 2026 as wider OPEC pluck gruises pushes ahead with output increases. You know, I think it’s it’s it’s pretty interesting the quote from PVM analyst the oil market has been skeptical by voting with price as to any bullish influence on the recent outbreak of violence is likely it is likewise too willing or or it likewise will wait for proof of a ceasefire that holds for more than a couple days. So I think we’re in extremely volatile situation. Prices all over the place and that’s that’s really all it’s it you know we’re it’s kind of a qu all quiet on the Western front relative to the oil and gas news we got a lot of earnings coming up and so I think people are kind of holding back. I think the MA market is really quiet down. Why would you why would you sell at this price relative when you might be able to sell for a higher price. So I think it’s going to be be very interesting to see how this all shakes out guys but appreciate everybody checking us out. Stu will be back chair next week. [00:17:13][122.6]
[00:17:13] We appreciate everybody tuning in. We’ll have a great podcast on Friday you hear the weekly recap on Saturday and then we’ll be back in the chair Monday morning for Stuart Turley. I’m Michael Tanner guys. We’ll see you tomorrow [00:17:13][0.0][1019.6]
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