Baltic Drone Strikes Hit Russian Oil Exports

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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.

Stuart Turley: [00:00:00] Russia’s crude export lose momentum after Baltic flows targeted by drones. That and more on the Energy Newsbeat Daily Standup. [00:00:08][7.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:00:16] Fed cuts rates by 25% after flagging risks, some from sobering labor market. Holy smokes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a modest 1% increase while the Nasdaq Composite rose about half a percent, reflecting optimism about lower rates. Fueling InnoVision and spending. The US dollar, which had been battered in recent sessions, staged a partial recovery against major currencies, climbing 0.4%. I don’t call that a recovery. I guess if you quit weaponizing sanctions, you might have a better dollar. Just thought I’d throw that out there. Bond yields dipped slightly with a 10-year treasury yield following 385 signaling expectations a continuing monetary accommodation For investors in the oil and gas space, the Fed’s rate cuts a double-edged sword, but the net effect leans positive in the near term, lower interest rates since Michael has mentioned before positive and borrowing costs for exploration, drilling, and infrastructure projects. That is huge. On the demand side, a weaker dollar, often by-product of rate cuts, makes U.S. Oil exports more globally, potentially higher crude prices, rent crude futures, which hovered around 72, post-announcement, could see an upward pressure if the cut submits broader economic activity. Pretty interesting on that. We’re going to go ahead and take a look. But there was also The U.S. Explores $5 billion in mining investment to fund to secure critical minerals. Is the Fed going to be doing this? Is the initiative to be in advanced talks to try to help get critical minerals away from China to be led by the International Development Finance Corporation, the FDF? DC in partnership with New York-based Orion Resource Partners. Buckle up, let’s see how this thing turns out. [00:02:20][124.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:20] Let’s go to the next story. Russia’s crude exports lose momentum after Baltic flows targeted. Russia s oil export machine, a cornerstone of amid ongoing sanctions and geopolitical tensions, is showing sign of strain, meaning they don’t have a lot of spare capacity. When you’re reading between the lines, weak crude exports plummeted to an average of 3.18 million barrels per day in the seven days ending September 14th, the sharpest week drop since July 2024. The culprit intensified Ukrainian drone strikes targeted by key Baltic export hubs which have disrupted flows from major ports like Permits. And Ertsk Loga, while the four-week average held steady at 3.46 million barrels per day. They actually used real drones instead of like the fake drones with duct tape on it that they lobbed over the border as a false flag. If you’re going to do a false-flag, at least use real drones and don’t use duct tape. That’s a note to Zelensky in an attempt to be humorous. The stability, yet notably giving Russia’s pivot to Asian markets, primarily China and India following the 2022 invasion. What we’re also seeing is that the increase of animosity from President Trump trying to get the war stopped. He is very frustrated at this and this is going to be an absolute problem. The best way to end the Russian war, President Trump, I have said this many times, get President Putin to the table by doing business deals with him. He is telegraphed. That’s how he wants to do business with you. So you’re a businessman. He’s a businessman, go do business, end the war in a business deal. [00:04:14][114.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:15] Let’s go to the next story. Natural gas to absolute dominate U S and China and Indy India’s energy mixed by 25th. As the world grapples with the dual imperatives of energy security and decarbonization, natural gas is emerging as the linchpin of the global energy transition, according to the recent report from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas stands alone among the fossil fuels as its projected growth within the energy mixes in the United States, China, and India by 2050. EIA, not the IEA, but the EIA has attributed that the United States has reduced its natural gas or its CO2 output considerably by reducing of the coal plants. Reducing of the older coal plants and putting in of natural gas. ExxonMobil forecasts a 20 percent increase in global natural gas demand by 2050, giving largely electricity needs and industrial applications. China’s massive industrialization and India’s burdening population projected to past China’s by 2025, will amplify demand in India, will currently comprise 77% of primary energy with renewables just at 2%, but natural gas is poised to grow as cleaner alternative to coal. I’ll tell you what, this is absolutely compelling. What this is going to also do, almost every conversation I’m having with AI builders, with Bitcoin miners, with all of the data center folks. They’re all looking for natural gas behind the meter. This is going to drive prices up. I’m trying to write articles and try to get a ballpark. We’re currently about $3 BCF today and you’re sitting back at rehab pricing. It is going to go up. There is no question about the lower rig counts, higher natural gas demand. You’re going to see more and more of this going on. There are investment opportunities in pipeline and oil and gas companies for investing in the long game. The natural gas boom invents compelling opportunities in infrastructure and upstream assets. If you’ve got a tax deduction that you are, you’ve get taxes and you don’t like paying taxes. Just like me. I don’t. Like paying taxes, go to energy newsbeat.co forward slash invest and take a look and we can, you can, there’s a chart there. You can fill out and say, hey, I don’t want to pay any taxes. Here’s what my tax burden would look like if I were to invest in oil and gas. That’s not a bad little tool. We can refer you to one of several different funds that are available out there. Pipeline operators stand to benefit immensely from expanded infrastructure. North America would McKinsey highlight surging gas demand beyond LNG exports, including AI data centers, electrification, necessity pipelines, and there’s a great chart in here from the, I believe it’s the ExxonMobil and Chevron, it’s the ExonMobile chart that they have in there. It’s an amazing amount of natural gas is coming online and it is coal plants retiring and natural gas lines coming in. Here is something to really consider though. The Siberia 2 pipeline is going to take, It’s going to take a couple of years to get put into place, but we’re already seeing the LNG. I believe it’s the fourth or the fifth LNG from Arctic to LNG from Russia going to China. The U S has had zero go out since president Trump has put additional pressure on India, China quit buying us LNG, so you are seeing. You Russian LNG going to China, you’re going to see the Siberia 2 pipeline, the power of Siberia to pipeline is going to dry up the remaining 17% natural gas that the EU relies on right now. This is going to cause a gigantic energy crisis for the EU in the next few years. I’m telling you right now. They’d better start realizing, wait a minute, wind and solar in the dual flocking fluke and however you want to pronounce that the flocking fluke is going to get a flocking Fluker and it’s going to get bad. So that’s a technical term. That’s an Oklahoma Texan kind of guy trying to say a fluking flocker do flocking is going to be bad. So it’s actually kind of a horrible joke, but when you want to sit back and take a look, gas is going to be where it’s gonna be at here. By 2050, natural gas just not dominate the U.S. And China’s and it will be. A global stability and major core piece of the grid. And if we stumble It is going to be a very, countries need to look at their own energy security and security contracts. We also, as the United States need to fix our shipping. And I know that president Trump is working really hard on trying to fix our shipping, but we need to be building tankers in the United states. We cannot rely on other nations and use their tankers in order to be energy independent. It’s part of energy dominance. We’ve got to be there. [00:10:11][356.5]

[00:10:12] Let me go ahead and give a Reese Energy Consulting a shout out. Go to ReeseEnergyConsulting.com. And if you are in the AI data center and you’re needing to know where to put a data center, give reeseenergyconsulting.com, a call, they can definitely help move molecules. They can move molecules from the Hainesville to Poland and Germany. I know I’ve talked to folks. [00:10:36][24.7]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:37] Let’s go to this next story. Global oil and gas field decline rates are increasing. The IEA chief says, trillions of dollars are needed just to meet decline curves. Where have you heard that before? Without sustained capital inflows, the world could lose the equivalent of Brazil and Norway combined in oil production. Let me say that again. If we don’t have trillions of dollars in oil and gas investment to meet normal decline curves, we could lose the equivalent of Brazil and Norway. For the folks in the EU and the UK, Norway is supplying a good chunk of your natural gas. You’re about to lose 17% of your natural gas because Russia is then going to be shipping it to Asia. So this is an important factor. If you’re wanting returns on your investments, this is a good story for you and a stark admission that underscores the fragility of global energy supply. The International Energy Agency, the IEA, has revealed, surprise after Chris Wright threatened to pull their funding, decline rates in mature and oil gas fields are accelerating, putting unprecedented pressure on the industry to ramp up investments just to keep production steady. This is normal. Oils come online and then they have a normal decline curve. This is nothing new, but money over the last 14 years has not been going back into it. Without sustained capital inflows, the world could lose the equivalent of Brazil and Norway about 5.5 million barrels per day every single year, a sharp increase from the 4. Million barrel per day annual back in 2010. You’re going to see some high priced oil. And you’re going to see some really severe problems if we just don’t get ahead of the curve a little bit and start investing. One of the good things about the United States oil and gas industry is that they are balancing out investment into capex and return to investors and they’re doing a very good job on that. But the trillions of dollars that are going to be needed are going to be magnified by the AI boom, the electrification of everything and all of the other natural gas power plants coming online. So as more and more LNG contracts come in play, you’re going to see that. And then you had Secretary Chris Wright and Doug Bergen, Michael and I talked about that on the podcast a few days ago. That is Chris Wright. Secretary Burgum said we’re going to double in the next five years the United States LNG output. Let me say that again. The United States is committing to doubling the LNG output in the Next five years. That is a lot of investment opportunities going on out there. [00:14:06][209.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:07] Hey, let’s go to the last story of the day here. Chord Energy to acquire XTO’s energy Wilston Basin Assets for $5.5 million. These assets include 10,000 equivalent location with 72- net operating sites i have not had an opportunity to go in and take a look at the site and the well data and evaluate the deal with michael on this and take look at it. The acquired assets in one of the best areas of the Wilston Basin have significant overlap with CORD’s existing footprint, setting the stage for lateral development. The assets have a low average WTI breakeven, which is pretty cool. So when Michael and I take a look at this, we’ll come back and give you a better yay or nay on how well the deal looks. [00:14:54][47.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:55] But with that, hey, shout out and have a lot of fun. Go to energynewsbeat.co. Go to theenergynewsbeat.substack.com and also go to reeseenergyconsulting.com. Thank you all very much and have an absolutely fantastic day. [00:14:55][0.0][884.5]