Weekly Daily Standup Top Stories
America’s Grid is Nearing Its Breaking Point
The United States’ power grid, once a marvel of 20th-century engineering, is now teetering on the edge of collapse. As demand surges from emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, data centers, and electric vehicles, an aging […]
$14 Trillion Stock Rally Expects a Fed Cut: What Happens If They Only Get a Quarter Point?
In the high-stakes world of global markets, the U.S. stock market has been on a tear, adding a staggering $14 trillion in value since April lows, with the S&P 500 surging 32%. This rally, as […]
IEA Prepares to Walk Back Predictions of Peak Oil and Gas Demand
The International Energy Agency, which has repeatedly predicted that global oil demand growth will peak before 2030, has drafted a report admitting that both oil and gas demand are set to continue growing for decades. […]
Fed cuts rates by 0.25% after flagging risks from softening labor market
The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a modest 0.1% increase, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%, reflecting optimism about lower rates fueling innovation and spending. The U.S. dollar, which had been battered in recent […]
Natural Gas to Absolutely Dominate U.S., China and India’s Energy Mix by 2050
As the world grapples with the dual imperatives of energy security and decarbonization, natural gas is emerging as the linchpin of the global energy transition. According to a recent report from S&P Global Commodity Insights, […]
Global Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates Are Increasing, IEA Says – Trillions of dollars needed just to meet decline curves.
In a stark admission that underscores the fragility of global energy supply, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revealed that decline rates in mature oil and gas fields are accelerating, putting unprecedented pressure on the […]
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
01:14 – America’s Grid is Nearing Its Breaking Point
05:38 – $14 Trillion Stock Rally Expects a Fed Cut: What Happens If They Only Get a Quarter Point?
10:36 – IEA Prepares to Walk Back Predictions of Peak Oil and Gas Demand
13:39 – Fed cuts rates by 0.25% after flagging risks from softening labor market
Natural Gas to Absolutely Dominate U.S., China and India’s Energy Mix by 2050
21:36 – Global Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates Are Increasing, IEA Says – Trillions of dollars needed just to meet decline curves.
25:04 – Outro
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Video Transcription edited for grammar. We disavow any errors unless they make us look better or smarter.
Stuart Turley: [00:00:00] Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Energy Newsbeat podcast. This is the Weekend Update. I hope that you’re just having an absolutely fantastic weekend. We’ve had an incredibly busy week. We had several key stories this week. We had the America’s Grid is nearing its breaking point. We have $4 trillion rally. Eyes the Fed. Is the Fed gonna cut? We also had Smart investing. We released a podcast with Shalehaven podcast. That was a very, very good podcast with Graham and Nathan over there at Shale Haven. We also had Baltic drone strikes. This was just a wild week. We also released this podcast with Steve Hilton. Steve Hilton is running for governor and we had the Californians for science with George Harmer on there. We have some phenomenal guests coming up and we’ve got more for you. So stay tuned, buckle up and also want to give a shout out to Steve Reese. You’ve got to follow Steve Reese Consulting, ReeseEnergyConsulting.com Thanks. Have a fantastic day. [00:01:06][66.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:01:14] America’s grid is nearing its breaking point. Hold on to this one. The United States power grid is a marvel of 21st century engineering. It is now teetering on the edge of a collapse as demand surges from emerging technologies like artificial intelligence. That’s AI. Data centers and electric vehicles and aging infrastructure struggle to keep up. Recent blackouts, escalating costs and regulatory bottlenecks are painting a picture, a system pushed to its limits. And we want to go through some of that. Extreme weather exacerbates whole problems. Heat waves in Texas and storms have triggered widespread blackouts. But let’s take a look at behind the meter solutions in companies. Michael, when we sit back and take a look, the grid is breaking, but there’s places to make money at it. And that’s why I wanted to put a place here such as battery storage, microgrids, rooftops, so they’re all gaining traction, but are they the right traction? They should allow businesses and households to generate and store power, independently reducing reliance on the main grid. My whole purpose in putting that in there is that you’ve got Tesla with their home batteries and their other storage. They I think are going to become a really big thing to take a look at. When you take a, look at the DOE is allocating 32 million in 2025 for smart EV charging and distributing systems. Still. So I think this is something to keep an eye on. [00:02:49][95.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:02:50] Yeah. The 23 million for EV charging. So what they’ll get three done, three, they’ll get three, done maybe. They might, hopefully they at least get one. I find it really fascinating. So you put a bunch of really interesting stats in here. As everybody knows, electrical demand is skyrocketing. A lot of this. And it’s kind of funny. You say 21st century engineering. I would say the grid is 20th century engineering relative to when it was built. I mean, a lot of these components are about 50 years old. AI data centers are consuming gross 4.4% of US electricity. And that was in 2023. And that number is expected via the EIA to triple by 2028. The EIA also forecast that electricity sales will jump to about 4097 billion kilowatt hours in 2024, all the way up to one point, you know, one 4,001. I mean, these are just huge numbers built 4.100 billion trillion cubic kilowatt hours in 2025. It’s pretty unbelievable. Basically, that’s the equivalent of adding the power needs of seven Seattle sized cities over the next decade. You mentioned those extreme weathers that sort of causes. I think it has less to do with the extreme weather and more to do what we’re adding to the grid. I completely agree with you on some of this behind the meter stuff. And I think there’s a huge play. I mean, you look at what Deloitte estimates the US power sector will require in terms of capital investments between 2025 and 2030, it’s $1.444 trillion. So now the real question is, are you going to be able to make a return on that? Because I think you look at a lot of what these, you know, I think people look at the amount of capital that AI is deploying into data centers. And the question will be, will the AI data centers, will be AI companies make money? It’s a little bit like the gold rush who made money in the gold brush, a couple gold miners, but everybody who sold the shovels and sold the carts on the way to the gold mine. So if you’re looking at an allocation of capital standpoint, I actually think being in the power generation sector, whether you’re selling Nat gas turbines or whether you are looking at some small modular nuclear reactors, we just had a great lunch with our good friend Todd. And so point of the matter is it’s aligning yourself on where the capital is actually going to make a return, because unless you’re getting straight open AI allocation and not third tier fund of a fund of fund of of fund who’s invested in open AI, you’re going to be left, I think, with your hands up. So it’s going to be fascinating. And I think you mentioned it exactly. The behind the meter is where the investment needs delay. You bet. [00:05:23][152.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:23] And I’ve listed a few companies in here and we’re going to have more articles on who we should be investing in and taking a look at is for, as again, we don’t give investment advice, but I do happen to day trade. So we’ll see how that goes. $14 trillion rally expects a Fed cut. What happens if they only get a quarter point? I had fun putting this one together. Bloomberg actually put out one that caused me to trigger to write this story. In the high stakes world of global markets, the U.S. Stock market has been on a tear, adding a $14 trillion value since April vows with surging 32%. This highlighted in a recent Bloomberg analysis. The current marking, Michael, they are assuming that we are going to get a 93% probability of a 25 basis point cut, bringing the federal cuts right down from its 4.25 to 4.5 range down to four to 4 point two five. I think that they are going to cut, but I still think beyond that expectations are for a gradual path. The Fed’s dilemma is real, cut too aggressively and it risks overheating prices, hold back and recession fears could mount markets. However, largely priced in the baseline 25, if we get anything less than a 25, we’re going to see some grumpy investors. I think it’s going to be 25. [00:06:54][91.1]
Michael Tanner: [00:06:55] I definitely think it’s going to be 25. I think the Fed has signaled that and I would agree with the market. I mean, you can’t get less than 25. It either is a zero or 25 basis point cut. There’s not much you can really do because remember the Fed gives a guidance window. The current guidance window is four and a quarter to four and half. And that 25 basis-point cut is just a guidance range from four to four in a quarter. So it’ll be fascinating to see what they see. The real question, and I like what you put in here, is what does this mean for the energy And again, invest, we just talked about it in our last order. 1.4 trillion of investment needed into just the power generation sector and part of that is definitely natural gas infrastructure, natural gas drilling. Well that’s going to basically flow on back and I love what you put in here, our good good friends at BlackRock, just mostly a joke, but some BlackRock analysis suggests that if there are multiple cuts, so about 75 basis points through 2026. Portfolio returns and energy ETFs could see a large increase relative to what the overall consumer CPI might see if you’re sort of playing that long short analysis. I think it’s extremely fascinating. I mean, look at all these oil companies right now that have huge debt balances. Any lower in the rate cut is going to allow them to roll over their debt, continue to make investments and really drill through this low point. I tend to sort of… He’s nailed it. Yes. And I tend to fall in the middle here. I think if you spend too much time on X, you’ll hear people screaming, you can’t drill at these prices. You’re, you’re incompetent. If you drill at this prices, you are not allowed to drill. It’s a waste of money. And on some level I can agree with that, but on some level I don’t agree with. From the standpoint of, if there is enough cheap capital, it is, you, you can use debt. I mean, I know it’s a scary word, but you can use debt to make investments. Some of the largest companies in the world have scaled their businesses off taking out debt. Now, you have to be smart about it. You don’t want to go too far down the debt route. You end up over leveraging yourself. And it’s actually kind of crazy. So I think the point is it’s understanding how cheap the capital is and where the best way to invest in it may not be actually drilling the wells. It may be enhancing your mid-frame infrastructure. It maybe allocating towards like what we mentioned, some of the power generation stuff. So I it’s going to be very interesting, but I like your bottom headlines, Stu. We’re going to definitely be navigating the uncertainty because that 14 trillion rally is gonna hang in the balance because if he doesn’t cut, some of that’s gonna get wiped off. [00:09:21][146.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:09:21] You bet. And I want to point out Walter Frerich, a Bloomberg Weekend put out this. I want just give him a little bit of a shout out. I think he brings up a really big point and go, why are we here? Bosin says their essay is noting the elephant in the room. The president and himself want slower rate. Authors argue that the best critiques of the Fed require politicians to confront hard decisions like balance, inequity, and growth. But don’t forget the backdrop. The Fed is an expert institution in an anti-expert, anti-institutional age. 74% of Americans had confidence and Alan Greenspan would do the right thing, according to Gallup in 2025. 37% have confidence that Powell will. Trust in the president and Congress has fallen over that period, but in 2025, listen to this, in their tenure together, more Americans have confidence in Trump. To do the thing for the economy rather than the fed that is critical. [00:10:26][64.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:10:26] It is, and as he ends his quote, you conveniently lest out the last sentence that does not bode well for Fed independence. So it’s going to be very interesting to see how things move forward. [00:10:35][8.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:10:36] EIA prepares to walk back predictions of peak oil gas and demand. I find this really funny, Michael, that this has got some hidden nuggets in it. Secretary Chris Wright threatened to pull funding. Suddenly, the IEA goes, whoops, we’re about to lose, I believe it was 30% of the IA’s funding. I have to go look that number up, but it’s a significant number, which is repeatedly predictions that the global oil demand will peak before 2030 has drafted a report admitting that both oil and gas demand are set to continue growing for decades. Then I love Javier Blas. Bloomberg’s Javier BLAS reported on the news, a column this week, citing a draft of the IEA report on the energy outlook uses a set of scenarios from the future. Not only that, but Blaz noted that the IEA then introduced another scenario that was favorable to the transition technology but distant from factual reality. Chris Wright is calling them out and saying, look, if you’re supposed to be publishing numbers, let’s be scientific and deal in facts. The facts are we have not been in an energy transition, we are in an energy addition and at what cost? [00:12:01][84.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:12:02] Again, I completely agree. I find it absolutely hilarious that the IEA has to do this. I mean, they either have to do it or just laugh in the face that they were wrong and pretend like they have their head in the sand. I means, at least they’re doing this, you know, at LEAST. [00:12:17][15.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:12:18] Yeah, but they had a 30% gun to his head. You know, it’s like I’m about to lose budget. Oh, no quick put something [00:12:25][6.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:12:25] That’s a good point. But I mean, this is, this was obvious. They were going to have to say something if they even cared about their credibility, because it was laughable what these scenarios were. I mean it was, it was laffable because what they were, because what they do is they make all these future assumptions. And how do they make those future assumptions? They assume that when California, for example, says they’re going net zero by 2030, they say, okay, that’s what’s going to happen. And so can you really even blame them? You could, but you also say, Okay, well, hey, California says they’re going net zero, let’s take good old oil slick new summit is word and assume that happens. What’s it going to actually have to take? The EU says they are going net 30 by 2004. Well let’s back. Let’s figure out how to invent a time machine, go back and make everything net zero. So on some level, you can’t necessarily blame them because what they’re doing is they’re taking the face value for what these politicians are saying. Now, if you’re saying they need to be in the business of figuring out whether or not those net zero things can be accomplished, that’s a slightly different argument. Yes, I do agree that it is classic that Chris Wright’s holding the funding over their head, but on some level, I think what they’re doing is just they’re listening to what these countries are saying and reacting to them. And it really, it comes back to really what are these countries saying that is lying, in my opinion. [00:13:38][72.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:13:39] Fed cuts rates by 25% after flagging risks, some from sobering labor market, holy smokes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a modest 1% increase while the Nasdaq Composite rose about a half percent reflecting optimism about lower rates. Fueling innovation and spending. The US dollar, which had been battered in recent sessions, staged a partial recovery against major currencies, climbing 0.4%. I don’t call that a recovery. I guess if you quit weaponizing sanctions, you might have a better dollar. Just thought I’d throw that out there. Bond yields dipped slightly with a 10-year treasury yield following the E85 signaling expectations of continuing monetary accommodation. For investors in the oil and gas space, the Fed’s rate cuts a double-edged sword, but the net effect leans positive in the near term. Lower interest rates, as Michael has mentioned before, positive and borrowing costs for exploration, drilling, and infrastructure projects. That is huge. On the demand side, a weaker dollar, often byproduct of rate cuts, makes U.S. Oil exports more globally, potentially higher crude prices, red crude futures, which hovered around 72. Post announcement could see an upward pressure if the cut submits broader economic activity. Pretty interesting on that. We’re going to go ahead and take a look, but there was also the U.S. Explores five billion in mining investment to fund to secure critical minerals. Is the Fed going to be doing this? Is the initiative to be an advanced talks to try to help get critical minerals away from China to be led by the international development finance corporation, the FDC in partnership with New York based Orion resource partners buckle up. Let’s see how this thing turns out. [00:15:42][123.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:15:43] Natural gas to absolute dominate U.S. And China and India’s energy mix by 2050. As the world grapples with the dual imperatives of energy security and decarbonization, natural gas is emerging as the linchpin of the global energy transition, according to the recent report from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas stands alone among the fossil fuels as it’s projected growth within the energy mixes in the United States, China and India by 2050. The EIA, not the IEA, but the EIA has attributed that the United States has reduced its natural gas or his CO2 output considerably by reducing of the coal plants. Reducing of the older coal plants and putting in of natural gas. ExxonMobil forecasts a 20 percent increase in global natural gas demand by 2050, giving largely electricity needs and industrial applications. China’s massive industrialization and India’s burdening population projected to past China’s by 2025, will amplify demand in India, will currently comprise 77% of primary energy with renewables just at 2%, but natural gas is poised to grow as cleaner alternative to coal. I’ll tell you what, this is absolutely compelling. What this is going to also do, almost every conversation I’m having with AI builders, with Bitcoin miners, with all of the data center folks, they’re all looking for natural gas behind the meter. This is going to drive prices up. I’m trying to write articles and try to get a ballpark. We’re currently about $3 BCF today and when you’re sitting back at Henry Hub pricing… It is going to go up. There is no question about the lower rig counts, higher natural gas demand. You’re going to see more and more of this going on. There are investment opportunities in pipeline and oil and gas companies for investing in the long game. The natural gas boom invents compelling opportunities in infrastructure and upstream assets. If you’ve got a tax deduction or you’ve gotten taxes and you don’t like paying taxes, just like me, I don’t like paying taxes. Go to energynewsbeat.co forward slash invest and take a look. And we can, you can, there’s a chart there. You can fill out and say, hey, I don’t want to pay any taxes. Here’s what my tax burden would look like if I were to invest in oil and gas. That’s not a bad little tool. We can refer you to one of several different funds that are available out there. Pipeline operators stand to benefit immensely from expanded infrastructure. North America would McKinsey highlight surging gas demand beyond LNG exports, including AI data centers, electrification, necessity pipelines, and there’s a great chart in here from the, I believe it’s the ExxonMobil and Chevron, it’s ExxonsMobil chart that they have in there. It’s an amazing amount of natural gas is coming online and it is coal plants retiring and natural gas lines coming in. Here is something to really consider though. The Siberia Two pipeline is going to take, it’s going to take a couple of years to get put into place, but we’re already seeing the LNG. I believe it’s the fourth or the fifth LNG from Arctic to LNG, from Russia going to China. The US has had zero go out since President Trump has put additional pressure on India. China quit buying US LNG so you are seeing Thank you. You Russian LNG going to China, you’re going to see the Siberia 2 pipeline, the power of Siberia to pipeline is going to dry up the remaining 17% natural gas that the EU relies on right now. This is going to cause a gigantic energy crisis for the EU in the next few years. I’m telling you right now. They’d better start realizing, wait a minute, wind and solar in the do flocking, fluking, however you wanna pronounce that, the flocking fluke is gonna get a flocking fluker and it’s gonna get bad. So that’s a technical term. That’s an Oklahoma Texan kind of guy trying to say a fluken flocker do flocken is going to be bad. So it’s actually kind of a horrible joke. But when you wanna sit back and take a look, gas is going be where it’s going to at here. By 2050, natural gas just not dominate the U.S. And China as it will be. A global stability. A major core piece of the grid. And if we stumble, it is going to be a very countries need to look at their own energy security and security contracts. We also as the United States need to fix our shipping. And I know that President Trump is working really hard on trying to fix our shipping. We need to be building tankers in the United States. We cannot rely on other nations and use their tankers, in order to be energy independent. It’s part of energy dominance. We’ve got to be there. [00:21:36][353.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:21:36] Global oil and gas field decline rates are increasing. The IEA chief says trillions of dollars are needed just to meet decline curves. Where have you heard that before? Without sustained capital inflows, the world could lose the equivalent of Brazil and Norway combined in oil production. Let me say that again. If we don’t have trillions of dollars in oil and gas investment to meet normal decline curves, we could lose the equivalent of Brazil and Norway. For the folks in the EU and the UK, Norway is supplying a good chunk of your natural gas. You’re about to lose 17% of your natural gas because Russia is then going to be shipping it to Asia. So this is an important factor. If you’re wanting returns on your investments, this is a good story for you. In a stark admission that underscores the fragility of global energy supply, the International Energy Agency, the IEA has revealed, Surprise after Chris Wright threatened to pull their funding. Decline rates in matura and oil gas fields are accelerating. Putting unprecedented pressure on the industry to ramp up investments just to keep production steady. This is normal. Oils come online and then they have a normal decline curve. This is nothing new. But money over the last 14 years has not been going back into it. Without sustained capital inflows, the world could lose the equivalent of Brazil and Norway about 5.5 million barrels per day every single year, a sharp increase from the 4.1 million barrel per day annual back in 2010. But you’re going to see some high priced oil. And you’re going to see some really severe problems if we just don’t get ahead of the curve a little bit and start investing. One of the good things about the United States oil and gas industry is that they are balancing out investment into capex and in return to investors and they’re doing a very good job on that. But the trillions of dollars that are going to be needed are going to be magnified by the AI boom, the electrification of everything, and all of the other natural gas power plants coming online. So as more and more LNG contracts come in play, you’re going to be seeing that. And then you had Secretary Chris Wright and Doug Bergen, Michael, and I talked about that on the podcast a few days ago. And that is Chris Wright and secretary Burgum said we’re going to double in the next five years, the United States LNG output. Let me say that again. The United States is committing to doubling the LNG output in the next five years. That is a lot of investment opportunities going on out there. [00:21:36][0.0][1281.0]
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