ENB Pub Note: This summary was posted on Seeking Alpha, and I thought it was a good summary. We will prepare these types of summaries in the future. Let us know what types of summaries you would like to see.
Summary
- Midstream/MLP earnings results for the third quarter were largely in line with consensus expectations, which had generally come down heading into earnings season.
- Beyond results, select companies announced acquisitions, data center deals, and plans for dividend increases.
- The outlook for growth opportunities remains robust, particularly for natural gas infrastructure.
By Stacey Morris
With the bulk of midstream names having reported third-quarter results, midstream/MLP earnings season saw mostly in-line reports. Estimates had been moderated heading into the results, with widespread expectations for a softer quarter. While there were some notable announcements, earnings generally didn’t provide much of a catalyst for the space. This note highlights a few key takeaways from various midstream companies and discusses what’s on the horizon for energy infrastructure.
Midstream/MLP Earnings Highlights in Brief
MPLX (MPLX) – In-line results were accompanied by $100 million of buybacks in 3Q. Importantly, management continues to focus on mid-single digit EBITDA growth, with greater growth expected in 2026 relative to 2025. Management continues to discuss 12.5% distribution growth for the next few years, consistent with the increases for 2024 and 2025. Finally, MPLX announced a letter of intent to provide natural gas to MARA’s (MARA) power generation and data center campuses in West Texas, highlighting that data center opportunities aren’t exclusive to long-haul natural gas pipeline operators (read more).
Targa Resources (TRGP) – Adjusted EBITDA for 3Q came in ahead of consensus expectations, and management expects full-year adjusted EBITDA to be around the top end of its range. Notably, the company expects to raise its quarterly dividend by 25% to $1.25 per share, with the increase expected for the May 2026 payout. TRGP sees at least 10% growth in its Permian volumes for 2025, and currently expects low-double digit growth for next year as well.
DT Midstream (DTM) – DTM delivered a beat-and-raise quarter, hiking 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance by $50 million at the midpoint to $1.13 billion. Management noted strength in the Haynesville, where 3Q volumes ramped faster than anticipated. DTM reaffirmed its early outlook for 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1.155-1.225 billion (5% growth at the midpoint), but expects to give formal guidance for the year on its 4Q25 earnings call.
Western Midstream (WES) – Third-quarter results came in ahead of expectations, and management anticipates ending the year at the high end of its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range. WES completed the acquisition of Aris Water Solutions on October 15.
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) – Results fell shy of consensus, but EPD upsized its repurchase authorization by $3 billion to $5 billion as it anticipates rising free cash flow. The company increased its 2025 organic growth capex guidance to ~$4.5 billion, which is the upper end of its prior range. However, EPD continues to expect a noticeable moderation in 2026 growth capex, now anticipated at $2.2-2.5 billion.
Williams (WMB) – WMB announced in-line results and upsized the Socrates power project by $400 million to $2 billion. Call commentary largely focused on WMB’s announced investment in Woodside’s Louisiana LNG and the related pipeline project. Management highlighted the transaction as a way to drive more volume onto core infrastructure, with the offtake intended to provide producer customers access to international markets. WMB is not making a speculative entry into LNG or trying to get international price exposure. WMB shares are down 7.4% through November 5 since the deal announcement on October 22. Growth capex for 2025 was raised by $500 million to a midpoint of $4.1 billion.
Energy Transfer (ET) – ET’s results fell shy of the consensus estimate, and the company expects full-year adjusted EBITDA to come in below the guidance range of $16.1-16.5 billion. However, the call largely focused on ET’s exciting growth opportunities around natural gas and data centers.
Sunoco (SUN) – The Parkland integration somewhat overshadowed an in-line quarter. Management expects leverage to be below 4x within 12 months (versus 12-18 months when the deal was announced) and more than $250 million in synergies. Management noted SUN is in a better position to deliver the multi-year distribution growth that was discussed prior to the Parkland acquisition.
Plains All American (PAA, PAGP) – Alongside in-line results, PAA announced the acquisition of the remaining interest in EPIC to bring its ownership to 100%. PAA expects mid-teens returns and a 2026 EBITDA multiple of 10x, with significant improvement expected the next few years. The midpoint of adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 came down $10 million, which includes a $40 million contribution from EPIC.
Kinder Morgan (KMI) – KMI reported in-line results but is pursuing $10 billion in potential projects, primarily around natural gas, beyond its current project backlog of $9.3 billion. The proposed Western Gateway refined product system was also in focus (read more).
TC Energy (TRP, TRP:CA) – TRP reported in-line results and affirmed its prior full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. The company also released an updated three-year financial outlook. TRP expects 6-8% year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026 and a 5-7% annual adjusted EBITDA growth rate between 2025 and 2028. The company also sanctioned $700 million CAD of projects, including two natural gas pipeline projects designed to serve power generation and data center demand backed by 20-year contracts.
Enbridge (ENB, ENB:CA) – Results were in-line, and 2025 guidance was reaffirmed, as well as the multi-year outlook (5% annual EBITDA growth post-2026). ENB sanctioned $3 billion of projects during the quarter, bringing its total backlog to $35 billion.
Cheniere Energy (LNG) – Adjusted EBITDA for 3Q came in below consensus expectations, but Cheniere reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance and raised the midpoint of its distributable cash flow guidance by $400 million to $5 billion. Cheniere repurchased $1 billion in shares in 3Q25 and raised its dividend by 11%.
ONEOK (OKE) – Results came in slightly ahead of consensus, and 2025 guidance was reaffirmed. OKE repurchased $45 million in equity in 3Q. Synergies were a focus of the conversation, with the company on pace to realize $250 million in synergies in 2025. OKE will finalize 2026 guidance in early 1Q26. Management also noted discussions for over 30 projects related to data centers.
Pembina (PBA, PPL:CA) – Pembina reported in-line results and narrowed its 2025 guidance range, which lowered the midpoint by $25 million. Last week, PPL announced a 20-year agreement with Petronas for 1.0 million tons per year of Pembina’s liquefaction capacity at Cedar LNG. PPL is advancing more than $1 billion of proposed pipeline expansions and continues to expect a final investment decision for the Greenlight Electricity Centre in 1H26.
What should investors be watching into year end?
With earnings and dividend announcements largely in the rearview, what should investors be watching? A handful of companies typically provide guidance for the year ahead during 4Q; namely, Kinder Morgan, Pembina and Enbridge are expected to provide 2026 guidance in December. For most, 2026 guidance will likely accompany fourth-quarter results early next year, as they wait for producers to finish their budget process.
A cautious oil outlook continues to be a bit of an overhang and contributes to uncertainty around 2026. However, comments from several companies on 2026 were constructive (MPLX, TRGP, DTM). While midstream equities could continue to be a bit choppy given the macro overhang, the dividend income on offer from the space remains strong. As of November 6, the Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index (AMZI) and the Alerian Midstream Energy Select Index (AMEI) were yielding 8.0% and 5.7%, respectively. Stay tuned for our quarterly dividend recap, which highlights the strong dividend trends behind these attractive yields.
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