Russia is pushing more crude onto the water just as Saudi Arabia’s last reliable bypass around the Strait of Hormuz goes dark.

The question in Washington is whether President Trump will treat that extra Russian oil as a problem to sanction—or as barrels he can use to keep gasoline and diesel from becoming a midterm disaster. That is the market story of September 15, 2026. It is also a political story. Prices jumped because Saudi’s safety valve […]

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Aramco Refinery Fires via Satellite: Saudi Export Lifeline Under Strain After a Month of Attacks

NASA fire-detection satellites and open-source thermal data captured two intense fires at the Aramco complex in Yanbu on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast, each radiating roughly 40 megawatts of heat—far above the 5–10 megawatts typical of a routine flare. The detections, highlighted in reporting shared by Chris Martenson quoting Mario Nawfal, come as Yanbu has […]

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Diesel and Refining Capacity Set to be the Inflationary Impact The Fed Can’t Control

The Federal Reserve can raise rates. The Treasury can issue bills. Neither institution can weld a crude distillation unit back together after a drone strike, add inches to a California products pipeline, or refill Gatun Lake. That is the story of September 2026: crude is still findable; diesel is not. The constraint has moved downstream, […]

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WTI has crossed $100 as the market begins to price the scenario Goldman Sachs flagged months ago: not just a constrained Strait of Hormuz, but a simultaneous threat to the Red Sea exit that Saudi Arabia has used as its remaining seaborne outlet.

Brent settled above $101 on Wednesday, September 9, and WTI followed through the $100 level on Thursday morning in a sharp rally. Physical benchmarks had already been there. Dated Brent has held above $100 since September 3. Murban, DME Oman, the OPEC basket, and the Indian basket were already trading over that threshold. Futures are […]

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U.S. fuel prices have climbed to their highest levels since the Iran war began in late February, with diesel setting fresh all-time records and wholesale costs now exceeding the peaks seen before the first ceasefires.

How high they go from here, and how long they stay elevated, depends less on crude alone than on a global refining system that is already running near its limits. Energy analyst John Kemp noted Wednesday that the combined cost of U.S. crude and refining margins is now higher than in early April. So far […]

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