WTI has crossed $100 as the market begins to price the scenario Goldman Sachs flagged months ago: not just a constrained Strait of Hormuz, but a simultaneous threat to the Red Sea exit that Saudi Arabia has used as its remaining seaborne outlet.

Brent settled above $101 on Wednesday, September 9, and WTI followed through the $100 level on Thursday morning in a sharp rally. Physical benchmarks had already been there. Dated Brent has held above $100 since September 3. Murban, DME Oman, the OPEC basket, and the Indian basket were already trading over that threshold. Futures are […]

Continue Reading

CENTCOM Destroys 3 IRGC Oil Tankers After Iran Targets 2 U.S. Navy Warships

U.S. Central Command struck three Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-linked crude oil tankers on September 5 after Iran fired ballistic missiles at two U.S. Navy warships in regional waters. The American ships evaded the attack. No U.S. personnel were harmed. Tehran’s shadow fleet paid the bill. That is the energy war in one exchange: Iran shoots […]

Continue Reading

Chinese refiners are paying record premiums for Russian ESPO crude as cheap sanctioned barrels from Iran dry up and Venezuelan oil moves onto the open market.

November-loading ESPO from Kozmino is trading at more than $7 per barrel over Brent, with some offers to independent refiners reaching $10, according to traders cited by Bloomberg and OilPrice.com. That is a sharp reversal from the deep discounts China extracted for years. ESPO loads on Russia’s Pacific coast and reaches Chinese ports in less […]

Continue Reading

Oil Will Find a Way

In Jurassic Park, Dr. Ian Malcolm delivers one of cinema’s most memorable lines: “Life finds a way.” Nature adapts, persists, and routes around obstacles no matter how carefully the fences are built. In the summer of 2026, crude oil is doing the same thing. Blockades and attacks have choked the Strait of Hormuz and the […]

Continue Reading

Houthis Target Saudi Oil Tanker in Red Sea Missile and Drone Attack, and Oil Goes Down

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi forces claimed a ballistic missile strike on the Saudi-flagged VLCC Amzan (IMO 9693745, Bahri-owned, approximately 320,926 deadweight tons, built 2014) in the northern Red Sea off Yanbu on August 24, 2026. The attack formed part of the group’s ongoing “siege for siege” campaign enforcing a maritime ban on Saudi-linked shipping, which began […]

Continue Reading

Are we about to see paper catch up to physical delivery on oil?

The oil market is sending mixed signals that traders and energy watchers cannot ignore. Futures prices—the “paper” side of the trade—have been surprisingly restrained even as physical barrels face ongoing constraints from the prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel cracks are screaming tightness downstream, China has stepped back as the world’s swing buyer, […]

Continue Reading