LITTLETON, Colorado, June 20 (Reuters) – The Texas power grid operator urged homes and businesses to conserve electricity on Tuesday as the first major heat wave of the season spurs residents to crank power-hungry air conditioners.
Power prices for Tuesday topped $2,500 per megawatt hour (MWh) in the state’s day-ahead market on expectations that demand would reach record levels later in the day, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).
In addition to the heavy demand for cooling, the Texas grid is also under strain from a recent dip in power generation from wind sources, which if sustained may deprive the ERCOT system of a key source of clean power when it is needed most.
Wind power is Texas’ second largest source of electricity behind natural gas, so any prolonged drop in wind generation may leave the ERCOT system under strain just as the peak demand season kicks off.
WIND POWER SHARE
Texas’s ERCOT system generated roughly 25% of its electricity from wind power in 2022, according to data from Refinitiv, and is on course to increase that share to nearer 29% in 2023 following an estimated 2 gigawatts (GW) of planned capacity additions this year.
However, even with those increases in capacity, recent wind power generation totals have slumped from year-ago levels as wind speeds dropped around the southern United States.
In May, the total amount of wind power generated in the ERCOT system was just under 310,000 megawatts (MW), which is down 40% from the nearly 520,000 MW generated in May 2022, data compiled by Refinitiv of ERCOT generation statistics shows.
In the first 19 days of June, around 185,000 MW of wind power was generated, which is down 45% from the 336,000 MW generated in the same period in 2022.
Combined with a roughly 25% drop in power generation from coal, and a 6.2% decline in nuclear output, the slump in wind generation has left ERCOT’s total power generation roughly 3% down during the first half of June from the same period in 2022.
RECOVERY DRIVE
The recent dip in wind power generation is clearly causing strain on the Texas power market, but steady increases in electricity generation capacity across the entire ERCOT system suggest the current stresses may only be temporary.
In addition to the largest expansions to wind power capacity in the United States, Texas utilities are also expected to add around 7.7 GW of solar power capacity in 2023.
That combination of new wind and solar capacity is helping to elevate Texas above long-time renewables champion California as the key driver of green energy supply growth in the United States.
Utilities have also lifted power generation from natural gas so far this month by roughly 13% from the same period in 2022, and are likely to crank gas-powered generation even higher to try to ensure the ERCOT system averts any major blackouts over the near term.
Over the longer run, Texas’ wind generation totals will play a decisive role in ERCOT system stability.
A rebound in wind generation levels due to new capacity and greater wind speeds will provide a major boost to ERCOT resilience and may enable the Texas grid to avert any further power scares from upcoming heat waves.
But a sustained decline in wind power supply across Texas may result in even greater pressure on ERCOT system operators, and increased likelihood of grid breakdowns.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
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