Daily Energy Standup Episode #209 – Weekly Recap: Oil Production Cuts Persist Amid Global Economic Shifts, Political Incidents, and Climate Concerns

Michael Tanner: [00:00:15] What is going on? Everybody, welcome in to a special edition of the Daily Energy News Beat Stand up here on this gorgeous Saturday, September 16th, 2023. As always, I’m your humble correspondent, Michael Tanner, coming in from an undisclosed location here in Dallas, Texas. Here to bring you our weekly recap for this week. Absolutely crazy show lined up, IEA drops some crazy numbers. You know, Secretary Granholm can’t make it for states in any of the lots of great stuff. We appreciate you staying with us. We hope you’re having a great weekend. As always. These stories and analysis you’re about to hear are brought to you by the world’s greatest website, Energynewsbeat.com. Appreciate you staying with us. Interact with the show questions@EnergyNewsBeat.com. Subscribe to our Apple Podcasts, Spotify or YouTube at Energy News Beat. Those are the best ways to support the show. Interact with us either way, hit the description below for all the articles. I’m giving it up to the weekly recap of the team. We’ll see you Monday, folks. [00:01:07][52.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:01:08] Hey, let’s start with Saudi Arabia and Russia. You know what? I won’t even do it without having an imitation of Putin today. So I know you’ll be thrilled by that. Hey. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So every year we are. Why are Saudi Arabia in Russia continuing with oil production cuts? Michael, let’s set the stage for a little bit of what just happened last week. Last week, there was a continuation of the cuts, extenuating tions last week from OPEC and opec+, despite a, let’s see, $1 million for Saudi Arabia through the end of 2023 barrel per day, 1 million barrel per day cuts through the end of the year. Moscow is doing 300,000 barrels per day through the end of the year. Both said last week those are going to be reviewed every month. And it both of them in that article last week were a slap to Biden. So it was kind of like all of a sudden, wait a minute, now there’s an analysis coming out of Riyadh saying that there may be an underlying current, Michael, for continuing the reviewing. And we’re going to get more information on that as we get rolling along. [00:02:20][72.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:20] You mean the the revision downward? [00:02:22][1.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:22] Yes, they are. This is all dependent on whether or not Biden’s tows the line and if they are now trying to hit him in the head. There’s more to this story coming out. [00:02:34][12.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:35] So you think this is all political? This is not a just pure financial move in order to strengthen what may or may not be a possible IPO of Saudi Aramco. As we’ve discussed on this show, it. [00:02:49][13.8]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:49] Absolutely is worth 50 billion in that new IPO. [00:02:51][2.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:02:52] Or whatever. Then they break their old record. No. B, I’ll break the world record of 25.9. Right. [00:02:56][4.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:02:57] And here’s here’s why that they’re still going to keep that up. This is more of an affront to Biden because Biden is. Now let’s take a look at what came out, Janet Yellen, three or four when she started last year to do the SPR. Michael, she went to China and asked China, can we lift all of this oil out of the SPR? They have no more oil out of the SPR to help reduce the prices. Well, guess what’s happening? This is a punishment because now Biden’s in a pickle. He can’t replenish the SBIR. He has no arrows to do both for the next election. Here’s the next squirrel on this analysis. Michael. This we just add Russia is now reducing all of their refined products coming out of diesel. The EU and the north east are going to get hurt by diesel. All of this is back to Putin being mad at the US all. Interesting. [00:04:01][63.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:04:01] It’s really interesting in it. It’s fascinating to me that on two levels you can make a decision. I mean, it’s it’s the classic two birds, one stone, because I think you’re right. I think we’re both right on both accounts. I think your analysis is correct that Saudi Arabia is probably trying to is not necessarily pumped with the Biden administration for for a variety of reasons. They probably want Trump back in office for a variety of reasons. But I also think there’s definite some financial gains. I mean, $100 Brant Oil makes an IPO of Saudi Aramco pretty attractive. So I think it’s it’s a case of both. They shelled out a lot of money in their Saudi investment funds, both on the soccer front. We’ve seen what they’ve done with the live golf merger, PGA. So if they ever have time, they need cash. It’s now and they see an opportunity to both hurt the Biden administration and make more money. It’s as Michael Scott would say, a win win win. Not for the U.S., though. Who gets hurt you, the consumer, because gas prices are going up, up, up. [00:04:53][51.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:04:53] And it’s going to go up. Michael, let me throw this financial piece at you. I want to ask your opinion on this. We have 7.6 trillion in interest bearing US public debt will mature within a year. Don’t you think Saudi is looking at that knowing. We are going to be in Financial Squirrel Fest coming up. Do you think that has anything to play with it? I personally think it does, but what are your thoughts? Yeah, I mean. [00:05:20][27.1]

Michael Tanner: [00:05:21] I think so. I think I think they’re you know, what’s interesting is and when I was talking with somebody about this this late last week is people always, you know, envious, should love in an ideal world, the Saudis should love a democratic regime because a democratic regime over the last 30 years has produced the largest spikes in oil prices and probably the majority of the oil wealth that’s exist. And I mean, think about what oil was during the Bush administration, what oil was during the Trump administration. Oil was so low, Trump had to fly to West Texas to go on a rig to try to say that he supported the oil and gas business. There was like three rigs running at $20 oil. So, yes, love me some Trump, don’t get me wrong, but they’re not great for oil prices. So there’s that squirrel that goes into it is that normally you would think a, you know, a you know, a Saudi regime would love a Democratic president, if only because the sentiment around a Democratic leadership is we’re going to need need less oil and a.k.a, prices go up. So it’s very interesting on one hand where you would you like the Democratic administration if you’re overseas or if you’re in the Saudi government and then you also don’t for other reasons, because probably what Biden is doing that is causing NBS to not like him has nothing to do with oil and probably everything to do with a lot of what’s going on probably behind the scenes, black ops, all that stuff that I don’t even want to get into. [00:06:40][78.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:40] Nope, neither do I. [00:06:41][1.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:06:42] But you see what I mean? It’s just it’s interesting. [00:06:43][1.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:06:44] Absolutely. And one of the things, Michael, that we always that people are asking me about, the advantage of it, energy news me is I look at all types of energy articles and there’s a lot of back players behind the scenes. And if you read one article, that’s not the whole story. You got to remember. [00:07:02][18.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:07:04] That these, like. [00:07:04][0.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:07:05] Western sanctions are failing. Surprise EU imports more Russian gas in China. It beats us in the tech war. There’s some interesting points in here. It it really is pointing out the number of countries under the EU, UN or US trade sanctions since 1960 through 1922. They really started kicking in under Trump. But boy, when Biden got in it was like they have continued to weaponize it. Let’s come in. You’re here now. What happened under Trump’s sanctions, Michael? Now you say the US was now revered because he picked his battles. He did not just go willy nilly out there and start throwing sanctions. He used sanctions and targeted response. And then if you take a look, China has the world’s largest economy. When you measure its GDP purchasing power and Russia has the sixth biggest economy, those two animals together are pretty crazy. Now, China is advancing technology despite our sanctions. Sanctions don’t work. They’re going to steal from us no matter what happens. Michael Well, of course. [00:08:18][72.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:18] I mean, they’re the largest purveyor of intellectual property theft in the world, So, I mean. [00:08:23][4.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:23] Oh, yeah. And so Bloomberg now put out that the mate 60 Pro is always you always first want to use the most advanced Huawei. [00:08:32][9.3]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:34] Should we go to Huawei phones? Should energy news be go to Huawei phones or a Tesla phone? [00:08:38][4.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:38] I’m all in I think Tesla phones would be great. [00:08:41][2.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:41] Okay. What do you think? What’s that got to do with a Huawei phone? [00:08:44][2.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:45] I ain’t using it exactly. [00:08:46][1.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:47] But it doesn’t have a CCP chip in it. [00:08:50][2.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:08:51] But, you know, I don’t know that the apple jib is any better than the ZB is. I know that the Biden administration. [00:08:57][5.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:08:57] Yeah, I don’t know. I would trust I’m trusting Apple over by the way you’re saying. [00:09:02][4.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:09:02] Irate family called Jennifer Granholm steam for blocking a charging station spot for her national car. And Michael, there’s two other stories to go along with this, but we’re not yet NPR. We know how they NPR is like on your left hand, way left, take your neighbor’s hand. And that’s how far left they are. They said it was a bad trip. They were even in in the next caller. So here, here’s what happened. They went on a four day trip across part of the U.S. to try to prove a four day trip from North Carolina to Tennessee was intended to draw attention to the billions of dollars the White House is pouring into green energy and clean car. Oops, she painted this part. She painstakingly mapped out ahead of time to allow for charging. Well, they had staffers go around and park their cars in there and a woman was pregnant in the heat trying to turn her car. And the staffer said no. So she called the police. This is the. It’s comical. [00:10:11][68.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:11] It’s it’s it’s comical that they fully understood. Hey, you know, it’s just comical to think that they understood the issue of, hey, we’re going to have to go block these charging points because there’s not enough. I mean, I know they’re investing more in charging points, but it goes to show you the number of charging points needed to go long distances is so many. [00:10:33][21.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:34] And NPR said we went up to charging stations. They were either broken out of order or too expensive, and it was like, holy smokes, they sure they did a Dick Cheney on them. So she shot herself in the foot in the spring. Got by. Go figure that out. Yeah, I was reading Where was the Bear Pit during this? This is transportation. [00:10:56][22.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:10:58] Maternity leave? [00:10:58][0.5]

Stuart Turley: [00:10:58] Yeah. Top climate scientist Drops a bombshell. Wildfires caused by w e f arsonist, not global warming. I thought this was not a rumor. And I’ll tell you why here in a sec. Slow news dot com reports. Brown said Editors at Nature and Science, two of the most prestigious scientific journals, climate papers that support certain pre-approved narratives. When you sit back and take a look. Did you see the fires in Canada being as they were starting popping up all over Canada and the helicopters were dropping napalm? And I mean, that to me is okay. Wait a minute, how does that happen? And then you sit back and kind of go, He pointed out research proves 80% of wildfires are ignited by humans. Global change, climate change is happening, and it’s because of mankind’s evil twin brother is going through and burning the place down. Brown admits that he has faked his own studies to get the papers published in big journals. Jesus journals. Climate Warming. Here’s an example he gave Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfires in California. Michael, I was trying to get this wildfire expert guy on the podcast. I reached out to him. He has he has investigated for the last seven years wildfires in California. Three of 4000 were set by whether by a lightning strike or something, really three. And then he started describing things that were pretty frightening, that these three, the cars that were burned in there shattered, the glass shattered. He said so many of the others were melted. What’s the difference between shattered and melted. [00:13:03][124.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:04] The heat level? Right. Or an explosion? [00:13:05][1.3]

Stuart Turley: [00:13:06] Exactly. It is exactly 1700 degrees Fahrenheit for a regular fire. And how much? 2500 degrees for these other ones that were started by somebody. Go figure that out. [00:13:20][14.6]

Michael Tanner: [00:13:21] Yeah, I’m just I’m not I find it interesting one that this guy admits to faking papers. It’s also crazy. He made this other quote. I figure once you admit to faking papers, you might as well go so far as to say this. I love this quote. You put it bluntly. Climate scientist. Our science has become less about understanding the complexities of the world and more about serving as a kind of Cassandra urgently warning the public about the dangers of climate change. However understandable this instinct may be, it distorts a great deal of climate science research, misinformed, most and most importantly, makes practical solutions more difficult to achieve, which is what Bjorn Lomborg has talked about, who one of my favorite speakers on this issue. So it makes the even economic solutions look horrible because you’re not a good person. [00:14:07][46.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:14:07] That is right now. This is fire and fury. I’ve even showed this a few times over at Maui. Maui was on the air. This was available on the six. I bought it on the 10th and it showed up on my doorstep on the 11th. How in the world do you get a book about a fire imprint in Amazon ready to go two days. And you know what’s funny? They could sit back, Michael, and they go sitting there and they go The National Guard realized that there was trouble and they jumped to their cars and went in Hell. That’s not how the National Guard works. It was two weeks afterwards and they have to be appointed by the governor and said, Go do this. There was nothing in here. They were wrong. If you’re going to steal a time machine, get it right. [00:15:04][56.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:05] So in conclusion on that one, we hope. Former senior law. Lecturer at Johns Hopkins, Patrick Brown. We appreciate his contribution by his image. You’ll probably be former senior lecturer at John Hopkins here soon. [00:15:18][13.4]

Michael Tanner: [00:15:19] We’d be remiss if we didn’t quite talk about the news out of London today. BP boss Bernard Looney resigns after failing to reveal relationships with colleagues used to. This is spicy. He resigns less than four years into his current tenure as CEO after he failed to fully disclose details of the relationships with colleagues. To give you an idea, the company had said in a press release that Looney has disclosed, quote, a small number of historical relationships with colleagues prior to becoming a CEO. That was revealed during a review last year, triggered by information from an anonymous source who further allegations were recently made after an investigation involving some external legal counsel is now ongoing. The quote Out of BP Stu, as Mr. Looney has informed today, informed the company that he now accepts he was not fully transparent in his previous disclosures. Ooh, yikes. Not all is well over there. [00:16:12][53.4]

Stuart Turley: [00:16:13] No, I think that we’re going to put at the end of this show, Michael, the the prince saying not the prince, but the head of OPEC going, we are actually going to throw the press out so that we can be transparent without being transparent. This is exactly what he’s doing. Absolutely. [00:16:31][18.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:16:32] MURRAY And and to Klaus, the company CFO is going to head and run the business on an interim basis, but it doesn’t look like they’re actually going to give him the job. You know, remember, he set out in 2020 as when he took over as CEO after really leading the upstream division in 2016 and holding various roles. BP all the way back to 1991, he pledged for BP to become a net zero company by 2050 or sooner, though they’ve walked back those pledges. What he failed to disclose. He failed to disclose two things. One, these relationships intuited the fact that when he met Net zero Company by 2050, he met net zero profit by 2050, not necessarily net carbon emissions and net salary for him. By the way, you know, because. [00:17:16][44.1]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:18] You know, you’re such a forward thinking guy when he came in, when you were producing that podcast and he waved at the screen you way back at him and everything else like the bubble, and you’re sitting there kind of going like that. Did you go, Hey, Looney, what’s your best shot? [00:17:35][17.7]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:36] Hey, hey, don’t go to that dinner tomorrow night. [00:17:38][2.2]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:39] You’re going to go to the party. [00:17:41][2.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:42] Go to dinner, maybe skip the Christmas party, man. Take the early flight. Take the late night flight home. Don’t stay overnight. [00:17:47][5.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:17:48] You heard it here. Second, Michael Tanner is an absolute procrastinator. [00:17:52][3.9]

Michael Tanner: [00:17:54] Prognosticators think we need to do. Is this need? We need to officially start the Stuart Turley for CEO of BP. I think you would make and I think we just start the campaign, get you out there in London, we’ll get you eat and tea and crumpets. I think you could turn it around. [00:18:08][14.0]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:08] I think I could. The sad part is, if I don’t know, Sam, I’m going to call somebody up and go, What is this? [00:18:15][7.0]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:16] So what what would be your first move as CEO of BP? [00:18:19][2.9]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:20] Pat Boehner on the back and kind of go, hey, thanks. I appreciate the job. [00:18:25][5.2]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:27] Thanks for. Thanks for giving me a low bar to step over. [00:18:29][2.6]

Stuart Turley: [00:18:30] Oh, no kidding. [00:18:31][0.5]

Michael Tanner: [00:18:31] EIA this morning Drops Crude Oil Market Report for September 2023. As I mentioned, the highlight beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era is approaching. According to the IEA, they go ahead and actually put out a good op ed in the Financial Times. Vahid Brill, he’s the IEA head. The quote is The world is on the cusp of his spawning historic turning point peaks for the three fossil fuels are a welcome sight. Interesting. The IEA welcome sight. The fossil fuels are growing. Not interested in any money from Saudi. I’ll tell you that much. Showing that the shift to a cleaner, more secure energy systems is speeding up and that that effort avoids the worst effects of climate change that are incoming. Let’s go ahead and read the top line numbers. The world oil demand, according to the IEA, remains on track to grow by 2.2 million barrels per day in 2023, to just below the record of 102 million at 1.1. 8 million barrels per day in 2023, mainly led by a resurgence in Chinese consumption, jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks. China will dominate the overall increase to 1 to 1.8 or 1 to 2.8 million barrels per day, and that based on a below trend GDP growth. The extension of those output cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia through the end of the year are going to have a starting to lock in a substantial market deficit. What they don’t tell you is that meat prices are up. They just tell you there’s a market deficit. They don’t necessarily tell you prices are going to go up. We do know that Russian are they also mentioned Russian oil export revenue surged by 1.8 billion to 17.1 billion in August as higher prices have more than offset their lower shipments, even though they did ease exports by 150. Thousand barrels per day at 7.2 million barrels, which is again below their average shipments both to China and India slumped as well. Refining margins did hit eight month high as they did struggle again as refiners struggle to keep up with a lot of this demand. It’s just really interesting, though. You know, this, you know, I think for heat bring all this IEA and I’d recommend reading this article on energy news he mainly talks about the sooner than expected peak for fossil fuels was primarily driven by the speculative growth, the spectacular growth of clean energy, and including solar panels, electric bills. What date is he looking at? This is just what I don’t understand about the IEA. What data are they looking at? I don’t know, because if you look around, it’s like, Oh, where’s Waldo on these solar panels, Where’s Waldo on this? The adoption that we’re all talking about, we just talked about a few days ago, Graham World can’t even figure out how to take an ETF from four stay four states away and they have to, you know, parking spot to make sure that there’s enough charging boards so they can get there on time. I don’t know what data this guy is looking at, but it’s absolutely insane. You know, he did mention that this that in order to these projected declines are unfortunately nowhere near steep enough to put the world on path to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This will require significant, stronger and faster policy action by governments. So our friends in the IEA think we’re all dead because oil and gas demand is going up. But by 2030 you’re going to be off it. And that’s an oversupply We’re not going to be all for by 2030. They’re saying it’s going to peak and then slowly start declining. I just say I doubt that. [00:18:31][0.0][1058.8]

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