The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its forecasts for U.S. crude oil production for both 2024 and 2025 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last week.
According to the March STEO, the EIA now sees U.S. crude oil output averaging 12.91 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 13.13 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.25 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.47 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 13.19 million barrels per day overall in 2024.
The EIA projected in the STEO that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.49 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 13.66 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.68 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.78 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 13.65 million barrels per day overall in 2025.
In its previous February STEO, the EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil output would come in at 13.03 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 13.12 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.06 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.18 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 13.10 million barrels per day overall in 2024.
The EIA projected in its February STEO that U.S. crude oil output would average 13.37 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 13.46 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.50 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 13.64 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 13.49 million barrels per day overall in 2025.
According to data on the EIA website, which shows monthly U.S. field production of crude oil from January 1920 to December 2023 and was last updated on February 29, U.S. field production of crude oil has only hit 13 million barrels or above in six months.
These were November 2019 (13.0 million barrels per day), August 2023 (13.041 million barrels per day), September 2023 (13.247 million barrels per day), October 2023 (13.219 million barrels per day), November 2023 (13.319 million barrels per day), and December 2023 (13.315 million barrels per day), the data showed.
Total World Production
In its latest STEO, the EIA reduced its total global liquid fuels production forecast for 2024 but kept its 2025 projection unchanged.
The EIA now sees total world production coming in at 101.52 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 101.35 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 102.82 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 102.96 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 102.17 million barrels per day overall in 2024.
The EIA projected in the report that total world production will average 103.27 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 104.02 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 104.65 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 104.72 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 104.17 million barrels per day overall in 2025.
In its previous February STEO, the EIA forecast that total world production would average 101.18 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 102.27 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 102.88 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 102.87 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 102.30 million barrels per day overall in 2024.
In that STEO, the EIA projected that total world production would come in at 103.42 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 104.01 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 104.54 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 104.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 104.17 million barrels per day overall in 2025.
“Following the incorporation of the new OPEC+ voluntary production cuts, we now expect that global liquid fuels production will increase by 0.4 million barrels per day in 2024, down from growth of 0.6 million barrels per day in last month’s STEO and down from an increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2023,” the EIA said in its March STEO.
“Although OPEC+ production cuts limit overall growth in 2024, production outside of OPEC+ grows by 1.5 million barrels per day, driven primarily by four countries in the Americas – the United States, Guyana, Brazil, and Canada. This growth counteracts the decline in crude oil product subject to the OPEC+ agreement, which falls by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024,” the EIA added.
“Global liquids fuel production increases by 2.0 million barrels per day in 2025 in our forecast, driven by an increase in OPEC+ crude oil production of 0.9 million barrels per day as existing OPEC+ production targets expire at the end of 2024, while production that is not subject to the OPEC+ agreement increases by an additional 1.1 million barrels per day,” it continued.
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