In a recent development that underscores the complexities of global energy geopolitics, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him India would halt purchases of Russian oil.
This announcement came amid escalating U.S. pressure, including tariffs on Indian goods, aimed at isolating Russia economically over its ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
However, India’s response has been measured and non-committal, with the Ministry of External Affairs emphasizing that the country’s energy decisions prioritize stable prices and secure supplies for its vast consumer base.
As the world’s third-largest oil importer, India is unlikely to fully curb its Russian imports, opting instead to safeguard domestic interests in an era of volatile global markets.
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Trump’s Push and India’s Reluctance
President Trump’s statement followed reports of a phone call with Modi, where he allegedly secured a pledge to end Russian oil buys.
Trump has ramped up rhetoric, warning of further tariffs—recently hiked to 50% on Indian imports—as leverage to enforce compliance.
This fits into a broader U.S. strategy to tighten sanctions on Russia, encouraging allies and partners to reduce reliance on Moscow’s energy exports. Yet, India has not confirmed any such agreement, with officials stating they are unaware of specific commitments and reiterating a focus on energy security.
Some Indian refiners are reportedly preparing for gradual reductions, but this appears driven more by market dynamics like narrowing discounts on Russian crude rather than outright geopolitical capitulation.
This stance aligns with Prime Minister Modi’s longstanding “India First” approach to foreign policy, particularly in energy matters. Modi has consistently prioritized affordable fuel for India’s 1.4 billion people, viewing discounted Russian oil as a boon for economic stability amid high global prices.
Defying Western pressure, India has ramped up imports since 2022, saving an estimated $5-7 billion annually through cheaper Russian supplies.
This pragmatic diplomacy reflects Modi’s strategy of balancing relations with major powers while insulating Indian consumers from international turbulence.
The Ineffectiveness of Sanctions: A Case Study in Unintended Consequences
Western sanctions on Russia, intended to cripple its war economy, have instead reshaped global oil flows without fully achieving their goals. Rather than isolating Moscow, these measures have pushed Russian crude toward non-Western buyers like India and China, who now account for over 80% of Russia’s oil exports.
India, in particular, has benefited from Urals crude trading at discounts of $10-15 per barrel below Brent benchmarks, allowing refiners to maintain profitability and keep domestic fuel prices in check.Critics argue that sanctions have backfired by creating loopholes. For instance, India imports Russian oil, refines it, and exports the products—often to the very countries imposing sanctions, such as those in Europe and the U.S.
This “laundering” of Russian-origin energy undermines the intent of restrictions, as refined products are not subject to the same price caps or bans as crude. As a result, Russia’s oil revenues remain robust, funding its military efforts, while sanctioning nations indirectly support the system through secondary imports.
Modi’s government has capitalized on this, framing it as a sovereign choice to prioritize national energy needs over external dictates.
India’s Oil Import Landscape
India’s crude oil imports totaled approximately 4.8-5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, with projections for modest growth into 2025 driven by economic expansion and rising demand.
Russia has emerged as the dominant supplier, capturing 35-40% of the market share—a dramatic rise from less than 1% pre-2022.
In June 2025, Russian imports hit an 11-month high of 2.08 million bpd, though volumes dipped slightly in subsequent months due to seasonal factors and supply tightness.
For the April-September 2025 period, Russian supplies averaged around 1.8-2 million bpd, down 8.4% year-on-year but still far ahead of traditional suppliers like Iraq (20%) and Saudi Arabia (15%).
This shift has been fueled by Russia’s pivot to Asia after losing European markets, offering attractive terms that help India manage its import bill, which exceeds $150 billion annually.
Refined Product Exports: Turning Imports into Global Supply
India’s refining capacity, among the largest in Asia, allows it to process imported crude into high-value products for export. In fiscal year 2024, the country exported about 62.44 million metric tons of refined petroleum products, valued at over $80 billion, with expectations of similar or slightly higher volumes in 2025.
Transportation fuels like diesel and gasoline dominate, accounting for 84% of exports.
Key destinations include Europe (which received around 2.55 million bpd in the first 10 months of 2024-25), the United States, Africa, and Southeast Asia.
Notably, a significant portion of these exports originates from Russian crude processed at facilities like Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar refinery, which imported 18.3 million tonnes from Russia in the first seven months of 2025.
This export boom—up 6.54% year-on-year to $4.48 billion in August 2025 alone—highlights India’s role as a refining hub, even as it navigates sanctions.
Customers in sanctioning countries benefit from these supplies, illustrating the interconnected nature of global energy trade.
Looking Ahead: India First in a Multipolar World
As Trump intensifies pressure, India’s trajectory suggests continuity rather than a sharp pivot. While some refiners may diversify sources to mitigate tariff risks, a complete halt to Russian imports remains improbable without viable alternatives that match the cost benefits.
Modi’s administration will likely continue advocating for consumer-centric policies, ensuring affordable energy to fuel India’s growth ambitions. In this context, sanctions serve as a reminder of their limitations: they may redirect flows but struggle to erase economic incentives in a multipolar world. For Indian consumers, the priority is clear—stability at the pump trumps geopolitical alignments.
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