In a positive signal for investors, energy giant Shell plc has released its third-quarter 2025 trading update, indicating a significant uptick in performance driven by robust trading activities and increased production volumes. The update, released on October 7, 2025, ahead of the full earnings report scheduled for October 30, suggests that profits are set to rise substantially compared to the previous quarter, buoyed by favorable conditions in key segments.
Strong Performance in Integrated Gas and Upstream SegmentsShell’s Integrated Gas division is expected to lead the charge, with trading and optimization results projected to be “significantly higher” than in Q2 2025. Production in this segment is forecasted at 910-950 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d), slightly adjusted from prior guidance but stable compared to Q2’s 913 kboe/d. LNG liquefaction volumes have been revised upward to 7.0-7.4 million tonnes (MT), up from 6.7 MT in the prior quarter, reflecting improved operational efficiency and demand.
The Upstream segment also shows promising growth, with production outlook raised to 1,790-1,890 kboe/d, an increase from Q2’s 1,732 kboe/d. This boost is attributed to ramped-up activities in key regions, though tempered by a $0.2-0.4 billion adjustment related to rebalancing participation interests in Brazil’s Tupi field.
Analysts note that these higher volumes, combined with steady oil prices, position Shell for stronger earnings in this core area.
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Downstream Improvements and Marketing Gains
In the downstream operations, refining margins are anticipated to climb to $11.6 per barrel, a notable improvement from $8.9 per barrel in Q2, driven by tighter supply and seasonal demand factors.
Refinery utilization is expected to remain high at 94-98%, up from previous estimates, signaling operational resilience. The Chemicals sub-segment, however, faces headwinds with margins holding steady at around $160 per tonne and expected adjusted earnings in the red, though trading and optimization here are also projected to be higher than Q2.
Marketing adjusted earnings are forecasted to exceed Q2 levels, with sales volumes outlook at 2,650-3,050 thousand barrels per day (kb/d). However, the segment will incur a non-cash post-tax impairment of approximately $0.6 billion due to the cancellation of the Rotterdam HEFA (Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acids) project, classified as an identified item.
Renewables Challenges and Corporate Outlook
The Renewables and Energy Solutions segment continues to face pressures, with adjusted earnings expected between a $0.2 billion loss and a $0.4 billion gain.
This reflects ongoing investments and market volatility in green energy transitions, potentially offsetting some of the gains from fossil fuel operations.At the corporate level, adjusted earnings are projected at a loss of $0.3-0.5 billion, in line with Q2. Cash flow from operating activities includes expected tax payments of $2.1-2.9 billion (down from $3.4 billion in Q2) and variable impacts from financial derivatives and working capital movements.
Notably, a 0.4% increase in gearing is anticipated due to new pension legislation in the Netherlands, though this non-cash adjustment won’t affect net debt.
Broader Implications and Investor Sentiment
While the update does not provide finalized profit figures—those will come with the full Q3 results—the directional guidance points to a healthier bottom line compared to Q2 2025’s adjusted earnings of $4.3 billion.
Factors like enhanced trading, elevated production, and better refining margins are key drivers, aligning with industry trends amid recovering global energy demand.
The table below summarizes comparable aspects based on Q3 guidance where available, with Q2 2025 actuals for context (where no Q3 data exists). Note that production units vary slightly by company (e.g., kboe/d for Shell vs. mboe/d for others), but they are broadly equivalent for oil and gas equivalents. Earnings figures are adjusted where specified.
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Company
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Upstream Production (Q3 Guidance vs. Q2 Actual)
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Downstream/Refining Impact (Q3 vs. Q2)
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Other Key Factors (Q3)
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Expected Earnings Outlook (Q3 vs. Q2 Actual)
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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Shell
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1,790-1,890 kboe/d (up from Q2: 1,732 kboe/d; boosted by Brazil activities)
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Refining margins: $11.6/bbl (up from Q2: $8.9/bbl); Utilization: 94-98% (stable/high)
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Integrated Gas: 910-950 kboe/d (stable from Q2: 913); LNG liquefaction: 7.0-7.4 MT (up from Q2: 6.7 MT); Marketing volumes: 2,650-3,050 kb/d (down slightly from Q2: 2,800 kb/d); $0.6B impairment from Rotterdam project cancellation
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Stronger than Q2 ($4.3B adjusted), driven by higher production, trading, and margins; Tax payments: $2.1-2.9B (down from Q2: $3.4B)
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ExxonMobil
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Not specified in Q3 update (Q2: Record ~4.4 mboe/d, highest Q2 since 1999 merger; expected stable or slight growth)
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Industry margins: +$300-700M boost to earnings (improved from Q2)
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Upstream price impacts: Crude -100M to +300M, Gas -200M to +200M; Chemicals: -300M to -100M; Specialty: -100M to +100M; Restructuring costs: -400M to -600M
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Analysts expect ~$1.79/share (up from Q2: $1.64/share, $7.1B total); Mixed outlook with refining gains offset by costs and volatility; Barclays trimmed price target to $126 amid dampened sector outlook
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Chevron
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Not specified in Q3 preliminary (Q2: Record global production, up ~3% YoY to ~3.3 mboe/d)
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Not detailed in Q3 preliminary
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Hess acquisition impact: $200-400M loss (due to severance/transaction costs); Adjusted earnings ex-costs: +$50-150M; Working capital outflow: $0.5-1.5B
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Lower than Q2 ($2.5B reported, $3.1B adjusted) due to acquisition costs; Barclays trimmed price target to $158, citing market conditions and refinery incident; Overall dampened by volatile supply and economic uncertainty
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BP
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No Q3 guidance (Q2: Higher production vs. Q1, but exact figures not specified; reliability >96%)
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No Q3 guidance (Q2: Stronger refining margins and oil trading)
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No Q3 specifics; Q2 impairments: $1.1B pre-tax
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No Q3 outlook; Q2 underlying profit: $2.4B (up from Q1: $1.4B); Full Q3 results due Nov. 4; Expected to face similar sector pressures like volatile prices
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TotalEnergies
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No Q3 guidance (Q2: ~2.5% YoY growth in hydrocarbon production)
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No Q3 guidance (Q2: Adjusted net operating income from segments: $4.4B)
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No Q3 specifics
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No Q3 outlook; Q2 adjusted net income: $3.6B (down from Q1: $4.2B); Full Q3 results due Oct. 31; Likely impacted by softening oil prices and refining margins
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Analyst Richard Hunter commented that the production updates highlight growth areas likely to please investors, though impairments in renewables may moderate enthusiasm in a challenging market environment.
Shell’s focus on optimizing its portfolio, including shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks (though not detailed in this update), underscores its strategy to balance traditional energy strengths with emerging opportunities.
As the full earnings approach, stakeholders will watch closely for how these projections translate into actual numbers, especially in the context of geopolitical uncertainties and energy transition pressures. Shell’s performance continues to demonstrate resilience in a dynamic sector.
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