The global push for renewable energy has been nothing short of a revolution. Wind farms dot landscapes from the American Midwest to the North Sea, solar panels blanket vast deserts and rooftops, and battery storage systems are scaling up to stabilize increasingly intermittent grids. But as these technologies mature, a sobering reality looms: their finite lifespans mean a wave of decommissioning, recycling, and land reclamation is on the horizon. With trillions poured into deployment, the question arises—who foots the bill for the cleanup? This article examines the massive investments in wind, solar, and grid-scale battery storage, their expected lifespans, the escalating costs of end-of-life (EOL) management, current disposal practices, the role of dwindling subsidies, and ultimately, who gets stuck with the tab for restoring the land.
The Trillion-Dollar Bet: Global Spending on Renewables
Investment in renewable energy has surged, driven by climate goals, technological advancements, and government incentives. According to BloombergNEF, global investment in the energy transition topped $2 trillion for the first time in 2024, a 20% jump from 2023.
Of this, renewable energy projects—including wind, solar, and hydropower—accounted for a record $728 billion.
Solar led the pack with around 600 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity added globally in 2024, while wind contributed about 125 GW.
Battery storage, crucial for grid integration, saw investments exceeding $50 billion in 2024, building on a 120% capacity growth to 55.7 GW in 2023.
Looking back, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported total global energy investment at $2.7 trillion in 2023, with a significant portion directed toward renewables and electricity infrastructure.
Cumulatively, from 2024 to 2033, developers are projected to add over 5.4 terawatts (TW) of new solar and wind capacity, pushing the global total to 8 TW.
These figures underscore the scale: hundreds of billions annually, totaling trillions over the past decade, have fueled a green energy boom. But this spending has focused overwhelmingly on installation, with little earmarked for the inevitable sunset phase.
The Clock is Ticking: Lifespans of Key Technologies.
Renewable infrastructure isn’t eternal. Solar panels, the workhorses of photovoltaic systems, typically last 25-30 years before efficiency drops significantly, though higher-quality models can endure longer with gradual degradation.
Wind turbines fare similarly, with an average operational life of 20-25 years, though early generations have shown premature aging, sometimes failing after just 15 years due to inverter issues. We have found that the average is well below the 8-year mark, as most were taking advantage of the funds for “Name Plate” upgrades and increasing turbines.
Grid-scale batteries, often lithium-ion, have shorter horizons: 5-15 years, depending on type and usage, with most warranties guaranteeing 60-80% capacity retention after 10-12 years.
This means the first wave of large-scale installations from the early 2000s is already approaching retirement. In the U.S. alone, over 500 million solar panels are installed, and globally, the volume of EOL waste from these technologies could soon overwhelm existing systems.
The Hidden Price Tag: Recycling and Disposal CostsRecycling these materials isn’t cheap, and it’s often uneconomical compared to alternatives. Solar panel recycling costs range from $10-40 per unit for basic processing, but can climb to over $200 for complex or large panels.
After recovering materials like glass, aluminum, and silicon—valued at $3-12 per panel—the net cost can be $8-27, up to 13 times more than landfilling.
Wind turbine blades, made of composite materials, are notoriously difficult to recycle, contributing to massive waste volumes.
Battery recycling is advancing, but costs remain high due to hazardous materials like lithium and cobalt.By 2030, the recycled value from EOL solar and wind could reach $2.7 billion, up from $170 million in 2022, but this assumes scaled-up infrastructure that doesn’t yet exist widely.
Without it, the economic burden grows, potentially leading to environmental shortcuts.
Current Policies and Practices: Landfills and Exporting Waste
Disposal practices vary globally, but shortcuts dominate. In the U.S., about 90% of EOL or defective solar panels end up in landfills because dumping is far cheaper than recycling.
Wind turbine blades often follow suit, with limited recycling options. Batteries face stricter rules, but exporting waste to developing countries is common, where lax regulations lead to environmental harm—despite prohibitions in many jurisdictions.
The EU leads with high recycling rates (over 95% for lead-acid batteries and mandates for lithium-ion), but globally, PV waste is handled under general waste laws, with little specificity for renewables.
China dominates battery recycling capacity, growing 50% year-on-year in 2023, but exports from wealthier nations shift the burden southward.
In places like New York, annual solar waste could hit five million panels within 25 years, straining landfills.
The Subsidy Gap: No Safety Net for Upgrades and EOL
Subsidies have supercharged renewable deployment—nearly half of U.S. federal energy subsidies from 2016-2022 went to renewables.
But these focus on upfront costs like tax credits (e.g., ITC and PTC), not EOL management or upgrades. As subsidies wane—amid calls to end them for mature technologies—the lack of funding for decommissioning exacerbates risks.
Reduced incentives could discourage investments in resilient infrastructure, leaving EOL costs to accumulate.
Without dedicated subsidies for recycling or reclamation, operators may delay upgrades, opt for cheap disposal, or abandon sites if bankrupt. This shifts financial and environmental impacts downstream, potentially increasing taxpayer burdens through cleanup funds or higher energy prices.
Who Gets Stuck with Land Reclamation?
Decommissioning and land reclamation—removing infrastructure and restoring sites—fall squarely on developers or owners in most U.S. states and localities. In the United States, there are an estimated 79,000 wind turbines in various stages of their life cycles. I can not find one wind farm that has land reclamation covered. And in Texas, the bone yard for fallen blades is horrific.
Leases often require bonds or agreements to cover costs, ensuring the restoration of native vegetation and site cleanup. However, we are seeing that there is no evidence of wind farms being properly maintained. Most of the time, they are just left to rot. Solar panels are even worse.
Here is an example of a wind turbine farm left to rot in California.
For wind, landowners may receive compensation structures that include decommissioning clauses.
However, if companies fold or bonds are insufficient, the responsibility could revert to landowners or governments. In practice, taxpayers often bear indirect costs through public funds or higher utility rates. Some states mandate written decommissioning plans in approvals, but enforcement varies.
Globally, without robust policies, developing countries importing waste may inherit the reclamation headache.
WHO PAYS to decommission wind turbines and solar on farmland???
Farmers are finding #renewableenergy companies have vanished. pic.twitter.com/5UvvoSR7EC
— The Spectator Australia (@SpectatorOz) July 13, 2025
A Reckoning on the Horizon
The day of reckoning for wind and solar is indeed approaching, with trillions invested now translating to billions in EOL liabilities. While recycling innovations offer hope—potentially turning waste into value—the current trajectory of landfills, exports, and subsidy shortfalls paints a grim picture. Policymakers must prioritize comprehensive EOL frameworks to avoid burdening future generations. Otherwise, the green dream risks turning into an expensive nightmare, with landowners, taxpayers, and the environment paying the price. As the first major wave of retirements hits, the true cost of renewables will come into sharp focus.
So, if there are an estimated 79,000 wind turbines and the range is between $350,000 $950,000, the range is going to be between $27,650,000,000.00 and $75,050,000,000, or in Stu’s crayon math, about $75 billion of a liability hanging out there that nobody is talking about. And that is only for wind turbines, not including offshore, solar, or storage facilities.
In our day jobs of evaluating oil and gas deals, we understand the costs associated with abandoned wells and the fees associated with clean-up. Is the oil and gas market immune to the same problems? Absolutely not, but there are programs in place, and significant strides have been made in the United States for the reclamation of oil and gas wells. In Texas, the state relies on the Texas Railroad Commission to regulate the oil and gas markets, and it has been doing a great job. Stu will be interviewing the commissioner soon.
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