This is from an X Post from Jack Prandelli, The Merchant’s News Substack. This is an excellent observation on how the oil markets are changing in real time. I also did not have on my bingo card that North Korea would have benefited from the Ukraine/Russia War, but here we are.
Story 1: India just put half its oil supply on Russian barrels. Russian crude arrivals to India: record 2.55 mb/d in June, up from 2.13 mb/d in May. Russia’s share of India’s imports: just under 50%. Before the Iran war began February 28: 23%. Saudi Arabia in the same period: 349,000 bpd. Down from 832,000 pre-war. Trump’s Russia sanctions waiver expired June 17 and wasn’t renewed. In theory India rotates back to the Gulf. In practice it only does so when refiners trust Hormuz. Story
2: Ukraine’s drone strikes are creating the barrels India is buying. Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries have doubled since January 2026. Drones hit a Moscow refinery last week. Fuel shortages, long lines, higher gasoline prices are spreading across Russian regions. When a refinery goes down, the crude doesn’t disappear. It can’t be processed domestically so it gets exported instead. Less Russian refining capacity = more Russian crude flowing east at a discount. India is positioned to absorb every barrel.
Story 3: Russia is now considering a complete diesel export ban. Deputy PM Alexander Novak told a Putin government meeting Tuesday: the situation is “not simple” but “under control.” Oil companies are running at maximum production. Tax proposals are being drafted to support the sector. A full diesel export ban would remove Russian diesel from global markets tightening an already stretched middle distillates picture, particularly in Europe heading into winter. Ukraine strikes refineries → Russia loses domestic processing capacity → crude floods export markets at discount → India absorbs it at record levels → Russian domestic fuel market breaks → Moscow considers banning diesel exports → European diesel gets tighter. Energy warfare doesn’t just destroy supply. Sometimes it reroutes it.
