Daily Standup Top Stories
Africa’s energy poverty: Dwindling forests, high power costs worsening energy security in Sierra Leone
Sierra Leone’s energy poverty, like other countries in the African continent, has compounded massively. Most of the country still depends on firewood for cooking fuel and the country’s progress towards renewable shift is extremely slow. […]
DAVID BLACKMON: Biden Is Spreading Around Green Subsidies Like A Vegas Gambler
A pair of stories published this week help document a rising phenomenon on the U.S. energy landscape: Hundreds of speculative, potentially non-economic projects being pursued solely due to the existence of billions of debt-funded dollars […]
EXCLUSIVE: Big Batteries Likely Powered by High-Emitting Gas Under Ontario Grid Plan
Weeks after Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) triumphantly unveiled the biggest battery storage procurement in Canadian history, persistent questions remain about how much of that storage capacity will be powered by high-emitting natural gas, The […]
This high speed train could be the first to be powered entirely by renewable energy
California’s long-awaited high speed train will be solar powered, according to the California High-Speed Rail Authority. It’s been a rocky road so far for the California High-Speed Rail Authority’s promising new project. This high speed […]
SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
Forecast overview U.S. economy. Our forecast assumes U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024, which is revised up from last month’s forecast of 1.3% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024. The upward […]
Highlights of the Podcast
00:00 – Intro
03:09 – Africa is Energy Poverty Dwindling Forests and high power costs worsening for energy security in Sierra Leone
07:13 – Big Batteries likely Powered by High Emitting Gas under Ontario Grid Plan.
10:18 – Biden is spreading around Green Subsidies like a Vegas Gambler
12:23 – This high speed train could be the first to be powered entirely by renewable energy
15:17 – Short Term Energy Outlook
19:19 – Market Updates
22:27 – Outro
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Michael Tanner: [00:00:07] What is going on Everybody, Welcome into another edition of the Daily Energy News Beat Stand up here on this gorgeous Thursday, July 30th, 2023. As always, I am your humble correspondent, Michael Tanner, coming to you from an undisclosed location here in Dallas Texas, joined by the Executive Producer of the show, the purveyor of the show and the Director and Publisher of the world’s greatest website, EnergyNewsBeat.com, Stuart Turley, my man, how are we doing today? [00:00:32][24.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:00:32] It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood and it’s hot. [00:00:34][1.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:00:35] It is really hot, I was looking at the weather forecast I mean, it’s really supposed we’re supposed to have two weeks this is supposed to be some of the worst heat for the South, specifically the Southwest if you’re in Phenix right now, you’re getting absolutely pounded it’s 120. But I am slowly dying on the inside, but I’m crawling my way to the desk every day, guys, to deliver you the energy news Stu has a great menu lined up. [00:00:58][22.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:00:58] First up, Africa’s energy poverty dwindling force high power costs worsening energy security specifically in Sierra Leone so Stu will dive into what’s going on over there. Next up, this is an Exclusive big Batteries likely powered by high emitting gas under Ontario grid plan in a move everybody saw coming. [00:01:17][18.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:01:17] Next up, this is from our favorite random guy on substack David Blackmon Quote Biden is spreading around green subsidies like a Vegas gambler, so this would be a nice opinion piece from David. Next up, This high speed train could be the first to be powered entirely by renewables energy this seems awesome so Stu will cover that and then we will finish up with the EIAs New Short Term Energy Outlook I’ve got my takes Stu`s got his take he’ll toss it over to me. [00:01:47][29.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:01:47] I’ll cover really? What’s a bullish day for oil prices we’re up to 75, 85 as we record this we saw 76 earlier throughout the day, but settling here at 70 excuse me, about 75,80, which is great. EIA drops a storage build, which doesn’t even seem to affect So very interesting. You know, we know what’s driving prices but I will cover all of that and a bag of chips guys, towards the end. [00:02:14][26.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:02:14] But first as always check us out online world’s greatest website www.EnergyNewsBeat.com. If I was a 16 year old YouTuber, I would say go to YouTube and smash that like button, but you don’t have to go check us out on YouTube Subscribe we really like to push those YouTube numbers we push this show out in a video format every single day, so go check us out YouTube@EnergyNewsBeat give us a subscribe. [00:02:36][22.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:02:38] Stu does a Great job of curating EnergyNewsBeat.com to make sure it stays up to speed with everything you need to know. The description below is going to have all of your stories and all the timestamps team does a great job of curating that. [00:02:47][9.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:02:48] Go to our website Dashboard.EnergyNewsBeat.com you could sign up for our V2 application there. We are definitely going to be throwing that original version behind a paywall, so we hope you guys get that signed up. I’m out of breath though Stu, Where do you want to begin? [00:03:02][14.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:03:03] Okay, let’s start in Africa and you know, I have a real bone to pick with people that are picking on Africa. Africa is Energy Poverty Dwindling Forests and high power costs worsening for energy security in Sierra Leone. I’ll tell you, this one drives me nuts. We have COP 28 coming up we have all these others and you have the G-7 telling Africa how to do a energy plan. This one drives me nuts. Listen to some of these numbers. Michael. [00:03:35][31.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:03:36] Okay. [00:03:36][0.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:03:36] Over 72% of the country has no access to electricity and 99.2% depend on unclean cooking fuel the Energy Progress Report 2023 Inner gov organizational in the IEA. My buddies over at the IEA in. [00:03:59][23.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:04:00] Favorite data analysts. [00:04:00][0.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:04:03] Okay overdependence on firewood has led to rampant deforestation in the country. Now the locals are restricted from accessing the remaining woods because of a logging company about a decade ago this is a quote out of there from Fula. A decade ago, even my child could fetch fuel wood from the backyard but now I find it difficult to get the chore of fetching wood is mostly delegated to women who travel long distances in in numbers for safety. Further around, she says, We can barely get food we cannot afford to buy charcoal her family lives of eight lives, depend on substance farming. Here’s here’s where it drives me nuts. [00:04:54][51.1]
Michael Tanner: [00:04:55] Give it to me. [00:04:56][0.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:04:57] They’ve got natural gas okay. If we gave them $5 billion, let’s say there’s $5 billion pipelines, natural gas you could probably put everybody in the whole thing on electricity. I mean, yeah, I remember it but why are they borrowing money to put in renewables? [00:05:22][24.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:05:23] Well, here’s my thing. I think it’s too simple to say throw money at the problem and it’s going to get fixed run pipelines. What? You know, you have to figure out a way to get, as you would say, the lowest kilowatt energy to these people but they can be sustained going forward. [00:05:46][22.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:05:47] Exactly. [00:05:47][0.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:05:48] Sustained going forward, it’s not just come in and dump a bunch of solar panels and they’ll they’ll crap out 9 years and then these people are back in the same situation they were five nine years before of going to collect firewood or run a bunch of pipelines that nobody knows how to maintain and the first the first time one of them breaks guess what? You’ve got now got a natural gas bomb down downwind. [00:06:10][22.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:12] Okay here’s the thing, though the there’s a $10 million project for solar in the 10 million is supposed to put some 500,000 Sierra Leoneans in renewable energy and 10 million for grid and solar panels and solar panels, as we do know unless there’s recycling going on, it’s going to be brutal on their environment. [00:06:42][30.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:06:43] I think the key is reliability, though get them the cheapest, most [00:06:47][3.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:47] Cheapest Reliable [00:06:47][0.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:06:49] Reliable Source of Energy our the question is, you know, it’s probably a thermal power plant we probably know the answer. [00:06:56][7.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:06:57] Yes. But, you know, having the World Bank loan them money and then hold them hostage for renewables when another source would be better. [00:07:07][10.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:07:08] Anyway, that’s not good. What’s next? [00:07:10][1.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:10] Oh, let’s go around I’m feeling a little better on this one. Big Batteries likely Powered by High Emitting Gas under Ontario Grid Plan, this one’s going to. Interesting. I want to let everybody know I don’t care what power source we use I don’t care Wind, Solar, Nuclear, Oil and Gas. Now we have Michael’s banging his head on the mike just go and shut up store. [00:07:35][24.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:35] Now, here’s the thing, Weeks after Ontario’s independent energy independent electric system operator IESO unveiled the biggest battery storage procurement in Canadian history persistent questions remain. How is it going to be powered? Well, it’s natural gas. [00:07:58][22.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:07:58] The IESO moves ahead to add 1500 megawatts of new natural gas fired generating capacity for existing generation stations. Canada’s cold, dead natural gas actually is not a bad thing, I don’t have a problem with this. [00:08:18][19.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:08:19] Yeah. [00:08:19][0.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:08:20] And it’s actually g it’s better for the environment in order to use natural gas instead of coal. [00:08:31][10.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:08:33] I mean, I think it’s pretty interesting the the second-order effects great you’ve got battery storage. Well, what type of energy are you putting in there? Uh, it’s like in that I it was that Michael Moore documentary when they were they were touting how much they were touting how clean there is. [00:08:54][21.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:08:55] But when you go to the electrical provider, you find out that 98% of their generation comes through coal. And it’s like, well, what are we doing here? We’re just rolling out charging stations. But what the electricity that’s going into those charging stations is coming from coal it’s the same thing here. [00:09:11][16.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:09:12] Right. And this is kind of funny, The heavier reliance on emissions and heavy gas, 70% in 2023, 74, in 2024 and 91% in 2027. So you sit back and kind of go, they have to go to that. And so I got tickled at this one I like storage. Here’s the one catch, Michael if you can put in storage of massive sizes with the batteries recyclable. I’m in. [00:09:51][38.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:09:52] I in. [00:09:52][0.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:09:53] I’m not in if you can’t recycle those batteries there’s only one company that I know does that. [00:09:59][6.1]
Michael Tanner: [00:10:00] Oh, you plug in. [00:10:01][0.9]
Stuart Turley: [00:10:02] I’m plug in form fry baby. [00:10:03][1.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:10:04] Fry batteries. [00:10:05][0.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:10:05] Fry batteries. I still love my talk with Don I mean, he was a good dude cool. [00:10:11][5.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:10:12] What’s next? Oh, let’s cover David Blackmon. [00:10:13][1.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:10:14] We got to love David Blackmon whooo… Biden is spreading around Green Subsidies like a Vegas Gambler. This one was really pretty funny. I talked to David about this this morning. Reuters Routers reported a project on Monday a new low carbon ammonia manufacturing facility being built in Texas by a Dutch company, OCI, with an initial investment of 1 billion. OCI builds the plant as the first in the world that will capture and store 95% of the emissions created from the making of ammonia. Not great. What are you going to do with it? [00:11:04][50.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:11:05] Yeah, I mean, if you didn’t realize that subsidies were the only reason a lot of this stuff is getting built because of the subsidies well, wake up. [00:11:14][9.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:18] The subsidies are there to be grabbed and OCI is grabbing them that’s a straight quote from L Hoshi. [00:11:26][7.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:11:29] I love this quote down to the bottom, Billions of dollars of subsidies for green innovations of all sorts, for battery back capacity for mining, lithium and other minerals, and for burgeoning EVs all in place. Thus, rent seeking companies love a good economics throw in their rent seeking companies, are going to cash out on the rents that are available, betting that the rest of the necessary equation will work itself out. A real question is it probably won’t work itself out. [00:11:54][24.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:11:55] Well they don’t even have an order, they don’t have any customers this is a really not so good business model. [00:12:02][7.1]
Michael Tanner: [00:12:02] No, not a great business model, All right What’s next with the high speed trains? [00:12:05][2.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:12:06] Oh, let’s go to California is one step it’s about five inches away from Germany so politically. So when you sit back and kind of go, this article is a Hoot! Michael Holtz get ready ready to go on the Train. [00:12:22][15.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:12:22] I’m ready. [00:12:22][0.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:12:23] This high speed train could be the first to be powered entirely by renewable energy. Pretty Exciting aint it? Let’s go through some. [00:12:32][8.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:12:32] I’m so excited! Tell me more California High Speed Rail Authority. [00:12:36][3.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:13:20] Yeah. [00:13:20][0.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:13:21] 28 billion to finish it [00:13:24][3.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:13:27] 28 Billion to finish? [00:13:27][0.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:13:28] Yeah. [00:13:28][0.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:13:28] What is that 19? That’s Holy Smokes 150 Billion? Oh they get all that they deserve. [00:13:35][7.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:13:36] Oh, they do. And last month, after 15 years of its initial approval, the California Highway High Speed Rail Authority announced that new system would be now fully solar powered, leaning on its initial promise as an environmentally friendly alternative to highways. [00:13:55][18.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:13:56] Michael, If they’ve taken 15 years and they’re 7,000% overbudget, do you think they’re really going to power this thing later on down in your it says the high speed trains will have let’s go through some of those numbers. They will have batteries in case the solar or wind fails while the train is going down the track. [00:14:21][24.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:14:24] Now. [00:14:24][0.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:25] What do batteries do, Michael? [00:14:26][2.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:14:27] They’re going to explode, you’re going to literally be on this train and then you’re going to end up on fire. [00:14:31][4.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:33] They weigh a lot in inertia, so not only is this thing going to be a bullet train, it’s going to go through 17 states on the way to Mexico if it can’t. [00:14:44][11.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:14:46] That’s unbelievable. [00:14:46][0.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:14:48] Anyway, I’m sorry this just got we knew we’d have a funding gap ever since the project started. Well, I know what I know is this. The earlier we build it, the cheaper will be that is IR guy of the week right there. [00:15:04][15.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:15:04] Yeah, that is. We just build it now. It’s going to be the cheapest it’ll ever be. It’s going to start using that excuse of my bank, and they got to buy it now. [00:15:14][10.4]
Stuart Turley: [00:15:16] On this next term, Short Term Energy Outlook, I was looking at this and I got some questions for you guys. [00:15:22][6.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:15:23] First off, explain to the people what this is. [00:15:25][1.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:15:26] The Short Term Energy Outlook is put out by the EIA they normally go out and they take a look at data, they look at stock, they look at usage demand, and then they even throw out some prices in there and try to take a look at making a stab at where prices are. [00:15:48][22.3]
Stuart Turley: [00:15:50] And the U.S. economy assumes GDP growth at 1.5 in 2023 and a 1.3 in 2024. So you can see that they’re still not that’s that’s for our listeners that’s what they’re typically looking at. Crude oil prices Michael, this is where I want to ask you on this Natural gas and some other stuff. They are predicting that spot price Brant crude will be 78 per barrel in July. Okay. Crude prices will increase to $80 a barrel in Q4 and then averaging about 84 in 2024. Here’s the gotcha, because we expect that global inventories will decline over the next five years. Five quarters. Excuse me. [00:16:43][53.4]
Michael Tanner: [00:16:44] Interesting. I mean, they’re clearly not as bullish as the IEA they’re clearly not Goldman they’re not getting any calls from Goldman Sachs to line up. You know, for once, you can’t doubt for once the idea, hey, maybe you’re doing a decent job because this seems to be more likely. [00:17:04][20.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:17:06] I would agree but it just since they were fudging numbers, you know, I was just kind of wondering, I what do you make. [00:17:13][7.9]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:14] The fudge here? It’s a fudge there this time it’s fudge in our favor. [00:17:16][2.7]
Stuart Turley: [00:17:17] Well, I don’t know, though, I still think that there’s enough shortage of oil coming around I think it’s going to be higher than that and I am going back to the bull. [00:17:29][11.1]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:30] So they do see a 2.3% increase of coal consumption, though, or U.S. coal production, though. [00:17:35][5.1]
Stuart Turley: [00:17:35] Right. [00:17:35][0.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:37] Natural gas consumption they have they have up or down, they have up and down in 2024, 34.5, then in 2023, then down to 33.5. Interesting. [00:17:49][12.6]
Stuart Turley: [00:17:51] Yeah. [00:17:51][0.0]
Michael Tanner: [00:17:51] LNG exports up. Renewable diesel production up electrical storage or electrical power sector generation from coal. 6% drop. [00:18:03][12.0]
Stuart Turley: [00:18:08] It’s an interesting number. Renewable Diesel boy, they’re really putting that number out there previous they’re now upping it. [00:18:18][10.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:18:20] Renewable Diesel is like Renewable Nuclear it’s like safe Nuclear, Liquid Nuclear that we’re going to put into our cars. That was an article when you were you were gone one day and we ran an article on Liquid Nuclear and I was like, Yeah, there’s a fat chance I’m putting that in my car. You don’t drag me kicking and screaming to pour Nuclear Stuff into my tank. Yeah, I’m good. [00:18:42][21.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:18:43] Increasing I think this is probably interesting you had a good catch there on the increasing to Coal that is interesting. [00:18:52][9.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:18:53] Yeah, Just were 572.2 million short tons U.S. Coal. Woop! Whoop! The big number. [00:19:02][9.2]
Stuart Turley: [00:19:03] All right, dude. I’m curious. What I’d like to do is give a shout out to our listeners and have them if you’ve got any oil predictions, we sure want to hear from you. [00:19:14][10.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:19:15] Yeah. Questions@EnergyNewsBeat.com. Oil prices as we stand today, guys. 75 as I mentioned, 89. Mainly what we saw today was a reaction to lighter than expected inflation data. We also saw a little bit of a drop in consumer prices, but specifically that U.S. inflation data printing, a point to considering what it was expected street comes out at then go ahead and reacts and says, okay, well, the Fed may not be so keen to raise rates, which is obviously going to be bullish for oil and oil prices. [00:19:52][37.5]
Michael Tanner: [00:19:53] We did see the dollar drop about 1% today, which again leads to a large increase. I think an interesting quote here out of PVM this is Thomas Vargas. Quote, The oil balance gets tighter. Either way, when supply gets downgraded or demand is revised up, if both happens at the same time, the change can be seismic. Again, this is a quarter this is his interpretation of the IEA short term energy outlook, which we just covered and specifically what’s going on with the EIA or the IEA, excuse me, coming out. [00:20:26][33.6]
Michael Tanner: [00:20:27] And again, having a little bit more of a report pointing to market tightening similar to the EIA. So they’re they’re on the same Zoom calls as everybody else on the IEA also or the EIA excuse me, did come out to drop crude U.S. crude oil storage up 5.9 million barrels. [00:20:44][17.2]
Michael Tanner: [00:20:45] The the API projected a rise of about 3.3. So this is about 2 million barrels more than expected. But as we see on that, if you’re looking at oil prices, it’s done absolutely nothing to stop the rampant increase. [00:20:56][11.3]
Michael Tanner: [00:20:57] Again, we’re up about two, three percentage points today. I think I think we continue to see that for the week. I mean, Stuart, this pays 77, $78 is not is not unlikely on the end of this week. I think it’ll be interesting to see what happens. You know, again, excuse me, not the end of this week, end of next week. [00:21:13][16.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:21:14] I think, you know, it would be interesting to see what happens these next two days but I think you’ve got you’ve got you’ve got five, six trading days so you might you might maybe see a pop to $79 on the WTI side, which means Brant sitting somewhere, 84, $85. We will see, though,. [00:21:27][13.7]
Michael Tanner: [00:21:28] That’s really all I’ve got to Stu, I think, you know, obviously with the bullish oil price, I think you’re going to start seeing a pickup in M&A deals. Specifically, you saw Sandridge announced they had a little $11 million deal for about 500 BOE, which isn’t horrible. But, hey, if you’re tacking on your tacking on, I do think with these higher oil prices, M&A will start kicking up as companies look to spend some of that cash. [00:21:52][23.5]
Stuart Turley: [00:21:53] Oh, that’d be great. [00:21:54][0.5]
Michael Tanner: [00:21:55] It would be great someone could buy us out. We’re on the war on the M&A market, so trust me. Stu do you got anything else for today? [00:22:02][6.8]
Stuart Turley: [00:22:03] Now, everybody is going to have a great day tomorrow stay out of the heat. [00:22:05][2.8]
Michael Tanner: [00:22:06] Yes, guys, Our Weekly Recap will be tomorrow so you tune in for that the team does a great job. We appreciate you guys checking us out here world’s greatest website www.EnergyNewsBeat.com, We’ll be checking in with you on Monday Recap of what happened over the weekend. See you guys! [00:22:06][0.0]
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