Oil prices are set to rise to $86 per barrel at year-end, from $80 now, as record-high oil demand and lowered supply will lead to a large market deficit.
“We expect pretty sizable deficits in the second half with deficits of almost 2 million barrels per day in the third quarter as demand reaches an all-time high,” Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” program on Monday.
While demand is set for a record high this summer, supply is shrinking. The production and export cuts from OPEC+ and the slowdown in U.S. oil production growth will also play a part in large deficits in the third quarter this year.
According to Goldman’s Struyven, “We expect U.S. crude supply growth to slow down pretty significantly to a sequential pace of just 200 barrels per day from here.”
The total rig U.S. count fell to 669 last week, according to Baker Hughes data on Friday. So far this year, Baker Hughes has estimated a loss of more than 100 active drilling rigs. Last week’s count is also 406 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.
Also last week, oilfield services giants Halliburton and Baker Hughes both signaled softer demand for drilling on the North American market.
At the same time, there is already evidence of lower supply from OPEC+.
Russian crude oil exports have shown signs of decline for a second consecutive week and are estimated to have sunk to a six-month low in the four weeks to July 16. Russia is preparing to cut 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) off its oil exports in August, and shipping plans so far suggest that Russia could deliver on at least part of its pledge to reduce oil exports next month.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports have also started to decline, to below 7 million bpd in May, for the first time in many months. Crude shipments out of the world’s top exporter could further decline as Saudi Arabia is now cutting its production by 1 million bpd in July and August.
