Will Iraq leave OPEC, or will OPEC allow Iraq to double exports within six years?

Iraq is pushing aggressively to more than double its oil production capacity, targeting 8–10 million barrels per day (bpd) within six years—up from roughly 4 million bpd before the recent Iran-related regional conflict disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping. On August 21, 2026, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi announced the goal at the Baghdad Dialog conference and […]

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Ukraine Hits Lukoil Refinery. How Degraded is the Russian Refinery Capacity?

On the morning of August 21, 2026, Ukrainian drones struck the Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez oil refinery in Russia’s Perm Krai, more than 1,500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Thick black smoke rose over the facility, one of Russia’s 10 largest refineries with a design capacity of around 13 million metric tons of crude per year (approximately 262,000 […]

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Will Choking Iran’s Economy End the War, or Are They Too Resilient?

In an August 20, 2026, Bloomberg Opinion column, Javier Blas argued that “choking Iran’s economy is the least bad way to end the war.” Drawing on firsthand observations of sanctions-induced collapse in Iraq, Venezuela, and Cuba—worthless currencies, skyrocketing inflation, and soaring unemployment—Blas noted that pure economic pressure has historically failed to force political change. U.S. […]

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China impacted the global oil supply, and moved the crisis downstream. Diesel is the next inflationary problem for the Trump Administration.

Brent crude hovering near $91 a barrel might look manageable on a trading screen. Jeff Currie, the veteran commodities strategist now at Carlyle Group, argues that focus is dangerously misplaced. “Nobody on the planet Earth consumes crude oil,” Currie told CNBC. “Refineries do. Everyone else consumes gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, and those markets look […]

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So Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz, Let’s See What Bessent’s Economic Isolation of Iran Could Look Like

As the Iran-U.S. conflict grinds toward the six-month mark in mid-August 2026, Tehran continues to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz—the critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG once flowed—while the United States maintains a naval blockade on Iranian ports and escalates economic pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled […]

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